Ralph Wiggum

I mean, we couldn't ask for a much better 850 low pass for our areas than what the gefs mean is showing. It's all textbook tbh:

SSWE looks to happen late Jan or early Feb. CfS has plenty of cold next month in Canada and a decent pattern for March....so we will probably get more chances at times both of those months.....of course windows sandwiched in-between warmth.

Antecedent airmass sucks. Not enough cold reestablished in SE Canada yet and zero snowpack most of the Northeast even into SE Canada....and that matters. We should hope for a full phased properly timed dynamic system that can create 850 cold on the NW flank with a proper track. Basically a thread the needle....and we know how that goes. But with a week+ to go, maybe we can morph this into a legit winter storm threat. Maybe.

Ukie has a decent setup...but its the crazy uncle. Still just over a week to go. There will be MANY more changes.

I mean, if we are morphing towards a more dynamic and phased event then in a few days we could legit start talking about the system dynamics manufacturing cold air. That isn't out of the question N and W with a properly timed phase. Seeing a few different ways this evolves including some interesting morph possibilities on some ops.

And the i95 weenies step back from the ledge

I'll take that 973mb low due east of Assateague Island any mid January regardless of temps progged at 7-8 day lead time

Snow hole over my house in SE PA....lock it up.

Signaling a broadly occluded slp IMHO. Nothing will erode a CAD or antecedent cold airmass faster....so alot of this is making sense and coming together.

He's jotting something in his log, give him a second.

Pretty broad and long fetch of Southeasteries tbh. HP to the N/NE moving out as well.

You mentioned data sampling in the PAC regarding the 2 sw's that would be responsible for the 50/50. Is this still a real thing wrt data sparse areas? I mean, 20 years ago I know that was always legit but aren't there other atmospheric measuring devices in play now? Or is this missing data really still a thing?

No JMA love?

My 11 year old daughter reminded me the other day to stay patient because "we always sled in March when we get our deepest snows". She isn't wrong in recent years. She even mentioned a April snow from several years ago. She has a meteo memory like you!!

Don't worry...CFS says March will rock....especially after our early Feb SSWE

That H5 was classic tbh. Little more confluence shifted S and we had it...both our subs

GFS says maybe I collect?

CFS says Feb has plenty of cold air up North to tap

I don't think the scientists know. Way too many mutations now. And by the time you read a report that a specific mutation is dominant the next dominant mutation is already getting a foothold. Feel better.

You know me....I will be here til the bitter end of the season tracking and trying to find any positives I can. Murphy's Law with me is usually I'm overly optimistic in the LR and we fail every time....or I punt and we enter a pattern that is producing. I'm not punting yet and honestly until cold air gets reestablished up North I can't be optimistic in the LR. We are in a thread the needle game for a while longer. It would be nice to just get a clean event...a half decent non amped wave sliding under the region with cold air established on our side of a boundary.....no timing worries, no phasing concerns, not relying on a 50/50 or some telleconnection acronym to progress into a specific phase. Rant over. Now let's get some flakes flying Sunday night.

The sad reality is the wet snow to rain Sunday night is our biggest trackable event of the season so far under 84 hours. I'm not even sure it will warrant an advisory down this way.

I've been kicked in the junk so many times the past 6 weeks I actually welcome it anymore and would be concerned if I stopped having my nuts and hopes crushed. By April I may have thrown all my snowman voodoo pieces and snowblower into my fire pit. Patience is wearing thin....this hobby is not for the weak.

Maybe the 14-15th storm can morph in to a 50/50 for this? I mean, we got a 50/50 chance

We need the polar vortex, bomb cyclone, and atmospheric river all working in tandem.

Been saying since around Christmas especially in the PHL forum, it is going to take a while for our cold air source to reestablish itself to our North given the PAC firehose. This weekend was always the transition but it usually takes a lag of 1-2 more weeks to get Canada where we want to see. At least in my experience. Was hopeful by mid month we would be there but obviously looking at ens mean temp departures we are still working towards that goal by next weekend....not quite in time to. Things are still too marginal. Yes, the can keeps getting kicked. Nothing we can do but hope by 3rd week we are back into a more normalized or BN temp look up top. Cold is and always has been the first ingredient needed, period. Marginal can work during prime climo but it is a thread the needle balancing act.