Ralph Wiggum

There have to be some members that follow the weakness though, from Greenville up over Philly looks like where it probably wanted to end up. Dynamics as it stacks likely cause interference of convective nature out closer to where the surface low ended up this run.

Probably wiser to pay more attention to the 500mb changes at this range and not so much r/s lines and amounts just yet. We saw some positive things all around at 18z. Now we rest up for Dr No in a couple hours.

The key this run and 18z is weaker less organized sw that gains more longitude before getting tugged N. Not concerned with where the surface low ends up....im not sure that is correct. Eta: willing to bet 0z the surface corrects itself with a move E

Ends up a tick farther W. Thats unpossible

U r correct

Liking the looks of that sprawled out 'banana high'.

Go GooFuS! Not closed off thru 66 this time. Less organized/consolidated. Better look. All we can ask for right now. Just cease that farther W movement each run.

See my post above....I think if we can delay the closed low and and phasing that only improves our chances for the sw to track east of the fall line.

Looks ICON ish wrt how it wants to link a bit of the energy in the plains with the stj energy. Not sure honestly what it would mean. Less of a closed low for longer would be better, so I guess there are some positives just glancing at where it may head after.

NAM at 78 but has a weaker sw and more of a connection to the stj and energy sitting off the southwest coast.

I think the thump will be fine. I do agree that the flip is looking more likely now. Seeing those SE low level winds roaring at tropical storm force wont help those east of the fall line. Again tho, get the sw to phase a little later to allow the low to traverse more longitude before running NNE would be huge in terms of precip types and changeover.

Which is it? Optimistic or pessimistic? Sounds like you should practice what you preach. Please: 1) quit trolling the forum and 2) post less, read more. Thank you. And yes, it IS the most likely outcome attm. Almost every red tagger has acknowledged this. Almost every piece of guidance is suggesting this right now. Could it shift? Absolutely. Dependent of wavelength separation, strength of the vort, confluence strength and duration, etc. I agree with that. But seeing this setup several times over the past 25 years of being active in the hobby, this is not a classic clean transfer coastal look NOR a clean Miller A....areas not the way it stands right now on guidance. So I really don't think odds favor an all snow event here attm. I will stick by my thoughts of this being the most likely outcome for now....thump to mix then maybe slot. Hopefully that is optimistic enough for ya. Any snow is good snow I could care less if it taints or flips. Eta: I would love to discuss offline and spare the members your grief, but your inbox is full, might want to look into that

Do u have the 925mb panel by any chance?

JMA is a mauling fwiw. Damn near perfect track. JV models ftw!

Funny, we were told yesterday to ignore the JMA and ICON because they aren't in the same league as the other globals. Yet these 2 models show possibly the best outcomes of the bunch (location dependent). With that said, I am taking these and hugging the ever living p!ss out of them for now. Thank you.

Classic thump to mix/dryslot for i95 at the very least. Most likely outcome attm.

I'll take the 988mb off Fenwick Island ftmfw Alex, ty

I'm not so sure. One thing most guidance is really hearing on is the deep and strong 925mb SE ripping flow. I suppose a cleaner transfer, weaker sw, and track of the sw under us rather than over the big cities could help keep flow vectors with less of a SE component, but that ll jet is sticking out like a sore thumb. Let's nudge that weaker sw under us and take our chances.

I guess. Just don't see how this screams clean hit. Almost zero guidance supporting this so that statement is not unrealistic. Likely a thumpage to mix/slot then backend flakeage as the ull pulls thru. Pretty classic look for that tbh.

So since things are going the wrong way for the Sunday/Monday system, are we still lined up to have a relentless parade of threats in a favorable pattern the 2nd half of January? Or are those looks fizzling out as well? Ens means look ok to me and the split out west and stj look active, but it has been silent here and want to make sure I'm not misinterpreting the progs.

One thing has become clear with this system....it will not be a flush clean hit for the big cities along i95....that much I think we can say with certainty at this point.

Ugly. Almost ever low is onshore now.

There is no way the GEFS doesn't start moving the other direction now. I would be very surprised if they didn't move W but we'll see.

Crapped the bed at 90

Better look. This is headed the right way.