I don’t think the issue is people hugging double digit output from one model run. This will likely be the third time in a row where inside the beltway this is nothing more than a slushy inch on grass. Meanwhile areas not that far away are scoring big time. It’s frustrating. 2 weeks ago it was track that caused us to warm and get a ton of rain while a historic blizzard is raging up 95. Then we have nice rates with a good track but temps are torched and it falls mid day. This was supposed to be simple- good airmass, simple overrunning, no transfers, and at night. But once again, temps suck, and QPF might suck. Can’t buy a simple event. 2-4 with temps below freezing used to be relatively simple. Now it takes an act of god inside the beltway. And meanwhile the rest of the megalopolis is at climo or well above. We will see how this plays out, not over yet, but I’ve seen this plot line before.