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CT Rain

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by CT Rain

  1. CT Rain
    He's 0 for 3 so far.
  2. CT Rain
    HRRR is close to a straight rainer south of the Pike lol
  3. CT Rain
    Kevin gets 50F for his morning run on the HRRR.
  4. CT Rain
    Yeah it's warm.
  5. CT Rain
    Yeah. A lot warmer than everything else.
  6. CT Rain
    Yeah I was using 3km NAM temps and ptype.
  7. CT Rain
    hahaha. I know it was hard not to.
  8. CT Rain
    Whoaaaaaaa
  9. CT Rain
    Verbatim it's a lot of nothing for you.
  10. CT Rain
    Yeah obviously there are some storms where there will be a clear "winner"... but in general I think the differences are overplayed and taking a blend is a pretty good approach more often than not.
  11. CT Rain
    The GFS also had 20" of snow for some of us 2 days ago. It hasn't been perfect either. The GFS/Euro debate is sort of funny now that the GFS has improved some and the Euro has done some weird things of late. Seems like in almost all of these cases a blend between the two (even 50/50) with a nod to the mesoscale models when appropriate is a really good way to go.
  12. CT Rain
    Still has more of a "fropa" look than it did on some of those earlier runs though. It is interesting to see the high res/mesoscale models all over the place. Seems like the front placement and where (if?) we get a wave along it will be key.
  13. CT Rain
    lol that's not a difficult one.
  14. CT Rain
    Yeah - definitely a warmer solution overnight in the low levels too. A much slower cold push outside of the GFS. Really would like so see some of the hires modeling get a bit colder sooner today.
  15. CT Rain
    Yeah that's glaze but it does transition to pingers a few hours later.
  16. CT Rain
    That seems way overdone to me based on the soundings.
  17. CT Rain
    GFS is a ton of sleet down this way.
  18. CT Rain
    Yup
  19. CT Rain
    It's the Euro
  20. CT Rain
    3km NAM did seem a bit colder/farther south than its 12km counterpart.
  21. CT Rain
    Yeah - pretty good surge of warmth to the Pike.
  22. CT Rain
    That's a torch.
  23. CT Rain
    Great to see the Euro jump south. For a higher end event like the GFS I noticed that the GFS winds up with a stronger band of convergence/warm advection at 850mb that lingers for quite some time. Just north of that you get quite a snow dump. The Euro is far more transient with that best zone of lift so you wind up with less forcing and more subdued precip totals. I imagine a combo of a stronger southern stream and a bit more confluence to the north could get it done.
  24. CT Rain
    I would like to see at least some support on the Euro here.
  25. CT Rain
    Even for N CT the GFS is a lot of snow. Just kiss 0c around 800mb for most of the storm.
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