RCNYILWX

Long time lurker (and very occasional poster) in this sub. I know the ensembles don't equal the reality of what snow lovers want, but isn't the pattern offered by the 12z EPS for week 2 typically a decent one for New England, objectively speaking? Neutralish EPO with a -PNA, -AO, -NAO, no semblance of well AN h5 heights nearby and 850 mb temp anomalies near to slightly above normal with the 850 mb 0C line in the vicinity of the Delmarva. It's not a cold pattern, but the -PNA would provide a steady stream of shortwaves and the -NAO/-AO could modulate the storm track in a beneficial way and/or promote coastal re-development of primary shortwaves tracking inland. Wasn't necessarily expecting that sort of look to be in play for this winter, but from my perspective (NWS Chicago forecaster), that projected pattern is typically a productive one here and have also been associated with snowy patterns into New England. Thinking 2010-11, temporarily in early Feb 2015, and mid-late January into February 2021 and 2022 as some noteworthy examples. I'd go as far as saying that the projected EPS pattern doesn't look like a bad one even down into the NYC area (I'm originally from Queens).

Fantastic read - do you post this on a vLab forum in the NWS? If not, you should! We could all learn from analysis like this. I certainly am versed in some of the teleconnection stuff but not nearly to this level, and then you bring it together on the planetary wave scale, which is impressive. We haven't been optimistic locally about snow prospects this winter based off the moderate to strong Niño climo, but felt that the wild card for a time could be temps. Of the 10 mod-strong episodes, 4 or 5 had near to below normal temps, but of those, only 2009-10 had above normal snow. Since this month has been such a torch though, going to be tough to finish at or below normal for DJF temps. I'm intrigued by the temporary -PNA that looks to occur toward mid month before potentially more pronounced pattern change. If there's enough blocking, the storm track could be modulated to support a colder/snowier outcome. We tend to do pretty well out here with a -PNA/-NAO/-AO, a recent example being late January-mid to late February 2021. Interestingly, the 2015-16 super Niño narrowly missed out on above normal snow at ORD with the Feb 24th event *just* missing to the southeast. It certainly helped to have a big late November snowstorm, but I'd say that after the December torch, that winter was relatively wintry vs. expectations going in.

In a brief change from the mild and quiet nothingness that's typified this month, a PV lobe will bring a respectable (by December 2023 standards) shot of cold air and wind for Monday-Monday night. The Euro and EPS suggest a decent LES response with inversion heights climbing to around 700 mb, so could see some accums into the Indiana and Michigan lake effect belts. While the temps won't be anything to write home about, the wind and seasonable cold combo will certainly feel unpleasant coming off the mild stretch we've had. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

We've grown accustomed to quiet patterns in December recently, but I think this stretch we're entering may take the cake. If the end of the ensembles are to be believed, it'll take until at least the end of the month to see some retraction of the higher end Pacific jet extension that will flood much of North America with mild air over the next couple weeks. Even then, if the pattern does eventually transition to colder in January, if it's driven by a +PNA, that would favor extending the drier than normal pattern. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Still too early to lock in a certain scenario, but the 12z guidance consensus suggests less of a snow threat for the LOT CWA and a severe threat potentially extending into a portion of the CWA on Saturday PM.

Also, not putting much stock in these runs for a few more days, but that run brings up nightmares of 2/24/2016 lol. Give me the weaker and strung out POS over that outcome.

As Joe/Chicago Storm mentioned, there's a lot of moving parts with the setup, so you're going to see plenty of variance in the guidance. Getting the flow to slow down enough for a digging strongly negatively tilted wave (like 00z Euro op), level of phasing, or lack thereof, etc. Those are all big question marks and handling all the complex features will vary greatly with small changes in other conditions. Re. your question about the 06z GFS and GEFS, think of the operational models as one of the ensemble members. That's honestly a good thing to see the difference between the operational and a sizeable portion of the ensemble, to give you an idea of the full spectrum of possible outcomes and see how the more robust members are handling the evolution differently. The GEFS has often had an issue holding too close to the operational. Definitely wait and see mode until later in the week.

The 12z continued on that theme, focus for a possible wintry threat shifted to Friday night-Saturday. The phasing the 00z run showed seemed like an unlikely evolution vs. most of the other guidance members. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Your last good clipper season was 2017 if I recall right. I remember there were some good ones in December that hit WI and MI. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Since 2009-10 is the only moderate to strong Niño winter since 1950 with above normal snow across the LOT CWA, not particularly optimistic for a snowy winter locally. That winter was a highly west based El Niño that peaked at 1.5 ONI and it had record strong AO/NAO blocking. The issue for us is that in means, El Niños are more conducive to +PNA, so that when it does get cold, you have more of a CAD or clippers vibe vs. moisture laden systems. Need to cash in if you do get a good southern stream wave or two. 2015 had the November 22nd system and most of the metro *just missed* on the late Feb event that slammed the south suburbs and especially northwest Indiana. I think if an element is going to diverge from the pre-season expectations (mild, and below average precip and snow), it'll be temperatures, especially if we get some good periods of blocking assuming the SPV isn't too strong (which appears possible in a -QBO/-PDO). Overall, outside of the super Niños (>2.0 ONI), the data is much more of a mixed bag for temps in moderate to strong Niños (1-2 range in the ONI). The challenge with temps is that if snow ends up on the low side, need favorably timed snow cover leading into cold snaps to get good periods of negative anomalies. For this reason, I'd still lean toward temps ending up above normal. Given the crappy winter we had last winter, here's hoping for an unlikely 2009-10 like outcome to this winter.

Will be back posting more regularly in here soon. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Just hit 97 at the top of the hour, bouncing around a bit on the real time sensor data we can access at LOT. So after hitting 97 it's back down to 96 at the moment. This behavior has been typical the past 2 days. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

96/78 at ORD approaching noon, vs. 93 at this time yesterday. The highway construction on the west side of the airport may be contributing at ORD given that MDW is currently 94, but it's time to get this 100 at ORD. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

ORD is currently 88/78 as of 929am. For reference, it was 88/79 on the 10am ob yesterday. So it should be a degree or two warmer by the top of the hour today than it was yesterday. In our morning update, we bumped the forecast high at ORD to 100. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Quick note on 12z Euro: It slowed down enough and tracked farther north with 500 mb low and surface low to maybe keep most of Monday out of the game threat wise for NYC metro and bring in Tuesday as the day. Lots of time to watch this and certainly could end up as no big deal. Pieces could potentially come into place though. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

The 12z Euro looks classic synoptically - timing a hair slower which is something to watch given that parent system is an anomalous closed h5 low which commonly tend to slow down. Forecast surface and 500 mb pattern looks more like a spring setup but the upper jet flow is marginal at only 40-50 kt, which can favor HP mode or earlier upscale growth to an MCS or both. But anyway, backed winds I-39 and east with a 40-50 kt southwesterly 500 mb jet core punching in and low 70s dew points into southern WI is prime. So in this sort of scenario you might see tornadic HP supercells transitioning to a tornadic QLCS with higher end potential tornado intensity vs. last Friday night given much stronger forecast low level and deep layer shear. That's if you have initial supercell mode and do have upscale growth of course and certainly couldn't rule out very rapid transition to a QLCS near or west of the MS River. I'll be in NY during this so will be a spectator, though sometime in the Monday evening-Tuesday timeframe could have higher end severe potential on the east coast too. Will be interesting to watch this unfold.

Idk if it's on the radar yet since higher end patterns for severe weather in the east are not necessarily common, but holy moly at the 00z Euro for Monday. Sub 1000 mb low pressure over the northeast is impressive for early August, let alone May or June. And 70+ dew points were forecast up to I-90 during the afternoon and evening, amidst strongly supportive low level and deep layer wind shear. The 12z GFS is honestly not too far off from that. I'm originally from College Point in Queens, worked at OKX from Feb 2009 until July 2010 and been at NWS Chicago ever since. I'll be visiting my family Friday the 4th to Friday the 11th and staying in CP, so I'll be there on Monday if that setup holds.

The look on the 12z Euro for Sunday was likely the most impressive this summer at that range for a favorable large scale pattern for severe weather. Will be interesting to see if the Euro holds with its much slower s/w and cold frontal approach tonight.

It's so absurd to have such a small gen TS area paired with the giant marginal. Marginal risks are whatever ultimately, but his outlooks for last night and today for this area were total fails, since they were a rip and read of convective feedback contaminated NAM runs.

Say what you want about Broyles (he's not good in general), but for for my money, Goss is the worst performing SPC outlook forecaster. Those who are familiar with the 4/7/2020 wind driven sig hail event in eastern IA, southwest WI, and northern IL will remember that he issued one of the worst day 2 updates of all time (removed general TS in much of the sig hail area) on 4/6/2020. He's on midnight shifts now and his outlooks have been bad as usual. The current day 3 he issued last night may take the cake in terms of silliness.

This afternoon was the first time I had any sort of excitement writing an AFD since one of the late season winter events. I was on a ski trip out west for March 31st and I worked April 4th but I don't think I wrote one of the AFDs for that. So yeah, it's been a while. Next couple weeks look potentially solid if you like mid summer RoF type stuff. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Since that's what the 2nd paragraph of their statement implies, and they apparently only see their role as alerting sensitive groups, I tend to agree. Behind the scenes, there's bureaucratic stuff with IDEM that we've had to sort out, but they've been very proactive in putting out AQAs, just like all the other state EPAs have been in this stretch, with the exception of the IL EPA. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Confirmed that the only reason we got an AQA is that the WCMs from LOT, ILX, and DVN pleaded for one. My take from the mess today is that only if you're in a sensitive group do you deserve an AQA according to the IL EPA. For everyone else, take some responsibility, go to airnow.gov, and step outside to judge for yourself if the air quality is hazardous. It would be like the NWS never issuing headlines for hazardous weather because people should be able to figure out it's unsafe. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

I'm off today but according to my coworker, we had to essentially beg the IL EPA to put out an AQA today. They hand out AQAs like candy on 90 degree days for ozone potentially impactful to sensitive groups, but then crickets most of this morning for the worst air quality in years (decades?) here. And then they put in a dig at us in the 2nd paragraph of the AQA, basically implying that they didn't think they needed to put out a AQA because the air quality is obviously bad and the AQI is available at airnow.gov. Good stuff. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Agree, looking bleak. Saturday and Sunday gonna be hot, heat might even get to the lakefront on Sunday. If we're lucky, some weakening MCS stratiform rain makes it in early Sunday, though likely hostile environment locally and poor timing cast doubt on that. Veered winds with the front Sunday PM make widespread CI unlikely, and leaning against lake breeze convection being in play. Could very well be a gap situation, where better convective coverage ends up east of us Sunday PM after being west of us Saturday night. Monday looks to have a chance for scattered storms in northwest flow, followed by a reinforcing surge of dry air for at least a couple days. We need widespread inches of rain for meaningful drought relief given the deterioration occurring this week, and not seeing it the next 10 days.