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yoda

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  1. yoda
    1630z OTLK from SPC keeps the 5% tor for the BR and east in the LWX CWA... along with 15 wind and 15 hail
  2. yoda
    esoscale Discussion 1013 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Areas affected...northern VA into parts of MD...DE... central/western PA...NJ...and NY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 271553Z - 271800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...One or more watches will likely be needed in the next 1-2 hours. Damaging gusts, large hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible with bands of thunderstorms through early evening. DISCUSSION...Modest destabilization is occurring from south to north ahead of an eastward-advancing front at midday. Stronger instability will generally remain across the PA/NJ vicinity southward, where dewpoints are in the upper 60s F, and decrease with northward extent into central NY. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear supporting organized bands of convection is already in place across the region. A mixed mode of supercells and bows is expected as convection increases in coverage after 18z. While deep-layer flow will largely remain unidirectional, some curvature of low-level hodographs and backed low-level winds is evident in a corridor from eastern VA into eastern PA/western NJ. A couple of tornadoes could occur in this area. Otherwise, damaging gusts and hail will be the primary hazard through this afternoon/early evening. One or more watches will likely be needed in the next couple of hours as stronger destabilization occurs and stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP... LWX... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1013.html
  3. yoda
    I'm going to guess severe thunderstorm watch up north and tornado watch in the southern part
  4. yoda
    22/12/5
  5. yoda
    1 fatality confirmed in yesterday's severe weather in Nelson County Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1011 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0807 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 5 E Norwood 37.64N 78.72W 05/26/2024 Nelson VA Law Enforcement *** 1 Fatal *** Nelson County Sheriff confirmed one person died when thunderstorm winds downed a tree limb onto the vehicle they were sheltering in near Wingina && Event Number LWX2403171
  6. yoda
    5/15/15 remains on 1300z SPC OTLK
  7. yoda
    I see some breaks in the clouds and some sun
  8. yoda
    Morning AFD from LWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 403 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A warm and humid air mass will persist through today. A cold front will push through the area tonight. A secondary cold front moves in by mid-week before high pressure builds in by Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Some notable changes were observed in the latest guidance early this morning and it is mainly to delay convective initiation this afternoon and push back the timing of the frontal passage until mid evening. The severe risk also has shifted more east to areas along and east of I-95 and east of Rt 15 in northern MD. Latest CAMs this morning show several broken short line segments including bows developing across the northern neck of VA lifting NE into southern MD. Other short line segments are seeing on the reflectivity products over north central MD into southern PA. The primary threat remains damaging winds due to strengthening wind fields and moderate instability (~1500 J/kg), but a couple of tornadoes and isold large hail are also possible. Severe risk should diminish quickly after 00Z and be over completely by 02Z Tue.
  9. yoda
    Morning 0600z disco for us from SPC... currently 5/15/15 ..Mid-Atlantic... A moist air mass is currently in place across the Mid-Atlantic with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints observed from the Carolinas into MD. 6-7 K/km lapse rates are also noted in 00 UTC soundings, which should support 2000-2500 MLCAPE by mid-afternoon across the region. The approach of the upper wave should promote troughing in the lee of the Appalachians. It remains unclear whether convection will primarily be focused along the lee trough or along a residual outflow boundary emanating from the ongoing MCS to the west. Regardless, sufficient buoyancy and deep-layer shear will support organized convection, including the potential for supercells with an attendant risk for large hail, severe wind, and a few tornadoes if sufficient low-level SRH along and ahead of the boundary can be realized, as hinted by some model solutions.
  10. yoda
    I'm going to go with 5/15/15 on the Day 2 morning update.
  11. yoda
    Uh oh
  12. yoda
    18z NAM NEST and 18z NAM soundings still are really nasty. 18z NAM NEST even has some very high UDH swaths just north of DC. Some of the hodographs are very elongated and very curved too
  13. yoda
    12z NAM and 12z NAM Nest soundings look pretty nasty as well
  14. yoda
    06z NAM NEST has some pretty dangerous soundings for the area at 18z Mon... though the sim radar would suggest clouds over the area I believe. Also, 18z Monday is at the end of its run 06z NAM soundings are also dangerous for the region. When I say dangerous, I mean like we rarely see some of these types of soundings in our area/region IMHO
  15. yoda
    Some pretty nasty looking soundings on the 00z NAM at 21z Monday and 00z Tuesday across the region
  16. yoda
    Looks like there were a few LSRs of ping pong ball sized hail this afternoon... one on Shenandoah county; the other in Loudoun just NW of IAD
  17. yoda
    vere Weather Statement National Weather Service Norman OK 757 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 OKC055-065-075-141-240115- /O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0127.000000T0000Z-240524T0115Z/ Jackson OK-Kiowa OK-Tillman OK-Greer OK- 757 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL JACKSON...SOUTH CENTRAL KIOWA...NORTHWESTERN TILLMAN AND SOUTHEASTERN GREER COUNTIES... At 757 PM CDT, a storm with a history of significant tornadoes was just southwest of Altus, moving northeast at 20 mph. An additional tornado was located between Altus and Duke with erratic motion. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and tennis ball size hail. SOURCE...Broadcast media confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Altus, Olustee, Martha, Headrick, Friendship, Altus Air Force Base, Humphreys, and Duke. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter, safe room, or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3455 9954 3467 9957 3474 9953 3477 9908 3447 9916 TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 248DEG 18KT 3462 9937 TORNADO...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN
  18. yoda
    18z GFS looks like a significant severe weather episode for us Monday afternoon/evening
  19. yoda
    I will have to look it up after I get home from work... and I was 3 years old
  20. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service State College PA 535 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 The National Weather Service in State College PA has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Centre County in central Pennsylvania... North central Juniata County in central Pennsylvania... Northeastern Mifflin County in central Pennsylvania... Snyder County in central Pennsylvania... Union County in central Pennsylvania... * Until 615 AM EDT. * At 532 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Poe Valley State Park, moving east northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. Numerous reports of downed trees have occurred with this storm over the past 30 minutes * Locations impacted include... Mifflinburg, Woodward, Burnham, Milroy, Highland Park, Middleburg, Yeagertown, McClure, Kreamer, Penns Creek, Beaver Springs, and Reedsville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a dangerous storm. To stay safe, immediately move inside a well built structure and stay away from windows. This thunderstorm is capable of producing all types of severe weather including large hail, destructive straight line winds and tornadoes. Move quickly to a safe shelter such as an interior room, a bathroom, closet or basement. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this severe thunderstorm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.
  21. yoda
    @high risk @Kmlwx @Eskimo Joe From this mornings AFD regarding Monday... already tossing out the significant severe weather episode words LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Shortwave ridging will build again on Sunday keeping convective cvrg isolated and mainly along the I-64 corridor. Memorial Day still looks like a very active severe wx day and the most active of all of next week. A deep upper level trough over the Great Lks region will push a strong cold front through the area Monday evening. Ahead of this front, widespread showers and thunderstorms appear definite with the potential for a significant severe wx episode given moderately strong bulk shear values of 30-40kt, high instability, and moderately steep mid- level lapse rates. GFS forecast soundings also indicate a tornado threat with 0-3 km SRH of over 200 m^2/s^2, EHI of 2-4, and high supercell composite values. The severe threat should end by 06Z Tue with frontal passage. There could still be instability showers Tue afternoon as upper trough axis pivots through, but the deep moisture should have been shunted south and east the night before.
  22. yoda
    MCD out for our far NW zones https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0891.html Mesoscale Discussion 0891 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Areas affected...Western New York into parts upper Ohio Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 221628Z - 221830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch is possible for parts of western/central New York into the upper Ohio Valley. Damaging winds will be the primary threat. An isolated brief tornado and large hail may occur with the stronger, more organized activity. DISCUSSION...Convection has been most intense right ahead of an MCV tracking into northwest Pennsylvania and southwestern New York. Destabilization continues to occur ahead of this activity and farther south into western Pennsylvania and vicinity. Convection is likely to continue in close proximity to the MCV as well as additional development within the Allegheny Mountains. Buoyancy may be more limited into southeast Ohio/northern West Virginia due to cloud cover. Observed morning soundings from the region showed mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km. Deep layer shear this far east will be weaker given the displacement from the primary synoptic wave in the Upper Midwest. However, some modest increase in shear should occur through the day. Storms will be capable of damaging winds primarily. Some risk for a brief tornado is also evident given modest low-level hodograph turning on area VAD profiles. Large hail could occur with the strongest storms, but weak upper-level flow will likely keep this threat more isolated. A watch may eventually be needed should convective trends warrant. ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...
  23. yoda
    SPC has nudged the eastern extent of the MRGL risk to the i95 corridor on the 1630z OTLK
  24. yoda
    12z NAM NEST and 12z NAM look decent around 6 to 8pm 13z HRRR is nice as well, stormy for the region after 22z to the end of its run
  25. yoda
    Morning disco talking up tomorrow potential and Memorial Day .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Stronger forcing for ascent will move into the area Thursday attendant to an upper trough and strong surface cold front approaching from the Midwest. Cloud debris and the front approaching during the early part of the peak heating window casts some uncertainty to the extent of instability. But, with stronger forcing and shear, there is at least a conditional risk for more organized strong to severe thunderstorms. It remains to be seen just how widespread the threat is, but storms may tend to focus further south and east toward the I-95 corridor where the potential for heating will last longest. Trends will need to be closely monitored over the next 24 hours, as upstream convection over the Midwest will dictate subtle shifts in (1) vort maxes embedded in the large scale flow, and (2) the extent of cloud debris that could inhibit heating. The front itself likely stalls to the north, but a wind shift or pre-frontal trough type feature should shift south Thursday night. Given the front(s) nearby, and lingering troughing and moisture, shower activity could last well into the night. Additional waves along the stalled front may lead to an unsettled Friday, as well. Although forcing and instability look to be a bit less, shower and thunderstorm potential will still be there especially further south near the I-64 corridor closer to the wind shift. It does not look like it will rain the entire day, but rather the potential for showers and thunderstorms will linger, with chances cresting during peak diurnal heating. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The weather pattern over the Memorial Day holiday weekend will be characterized by gradually lowering heights and surface pressures leading to a stormy pattern. Saturday should turn out rather active due to a low amplitude shortwave trough moving across the area that should act to enhance t-storm activity. Sunday appears to be the least active day due to shortwave ridging and some drying. Severe weather risk appears to increase markedly on Memorial Day due to strengthening wind fields aloft and strong shortwave energy moving across the area around the base of a deep upper level trough over the eastern Great Lks. A strong cold front will follow Monday night bringing cooler and drier conditions for the middle of next week.
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