yoda
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Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 222 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2018 VAC003-125-540-101845- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0010.000000T0000Z-180510T1845Z/ Nelson VA-City of Charlottesville VA-Albemarle VA- 222 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2018 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN NELSON AND CENTRAL ALBEMARLE COUNTIES AND THE SOUTHERN CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE... At 221 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 7 miles northwest of Troy to 8 miles south of Crozet, moving southeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...City of Charlottesville 911 Center has reported damaging winds within the City limits. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Charlottesville, Campbell, Scottsville, Esmont, Cobham, Cismont, North Garden, Covesville, Boyd Tavern, Woodridge, Monticello, Keswick, Shadwell, Glendower, Keene, Overton and Alberene. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... These storms are producing destructive winds and large damaging hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows.
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70/20 wind... 30/30 (mod/mod) hail
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 78 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 110 PM EDT Thu May 10 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Northern Maryland North-central North Carolina Much of Virginia The Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 110 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forming over eastern West Virginia and western Virginia. These storms will spread eastward this afternoon across the watch area, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail.
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SEVERE TSTORM WATCH ISSUED
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Mesoscale Discussion 0374 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu May 10 2018 Areas affected...much of Virginia...Maryland and northern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 101636Z - 101830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon with initial storms over the central Appalachians then spreading into the Middle Atlantic including VA, MD and northern NC. Isolated damaging wind gusts should be the primary threat. DISCUSSION...Early this afternoon a few thunderstorms are developing along the central through southern Appalachians forced by heating over the higher terrain. Strong diabatic warming within the the downstream warm sector with weakening convective inhibition and dewpoints from the upper 50s to near 60 F should support 800-1200 J/kg MLCAPE. Steepening 0-3 km lapse rates with inverted-V boundary layer characteristics, along with 30-40 kt southwesterly flow between 1-4 km will support locally strong downdrafts as storms develop east off the higher terrain. Weak vertical shear (around 30 kt between 0-6 km) will promote multicell storm modes with locally strong to damaging wind gusts as storms evolve into short lines segments and clusters this afternoon and early evening. ..Dial/Hart.. 05/10/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...
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2/5/15 from 1630 SPC OTLK... sounds like damaging wind gusts are our main threat with maybe an isolated storm producing large hail or a weak spinup
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12z NAM NEST brings through 2 separate lines.... one around 19z and the final one around 01z
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Looks like 06z GFS tries hard to bring us a plume of EML/remnant plume of EML for Monday... ML Lapse Rates are 7.0 to 8.0 C/KM Monday afternoon into evening
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Sun is trying to come out here... LWX AFD talks about a squall line:
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Incoming derecho that evening That's exactly how I missed the last derecho -- traveling to FL that morning for vacation with family
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12z GFS likes Monday afternoon into the evening though lol
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12z GFS around DCA at 21z THUR
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I'd go with NAM/NAM NEST We'll see what the HRRR comes up with later this evening
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Thinking we get upgraded to SLGT risk on the Day 2 1730 OTLK
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Decent as well... 12z NAM NEST UHI swaths through 02z FRI:
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12z NAM NEST sim radar decent... drives in some crappy showers around 15z... then blows up storms over us around 20z to 21z... has what looks to be maybe a sup in C MD at 22z... then drives one more small line or cell through DC around 02z
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weather.cod.edu has some nice supercell composite and fixed layer sig tor over the region around 21z THUR
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00z NAM is pretty nice lol... over 3000 SBCAPE, 40 knots 0-6km shear, MLCAPE 1500 to 2000, and ML Lapse Rates approaching 7.0 C/KM at KIAD at 21z THUR Even EHI is above 3 and supercell potential 72% lol
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I like all the SIG in the Supercell portion of the SARS
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Oh come on... LWX afternoon AFD re Thursday potential:
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Not a bad sounding for 21z THUR from 12z NAM
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LWX morning disco re Thursday severe risk:
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From SPC Day 4- 8 OTLK
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LWX AFD from this morning... probably a meh for Thursday afternoon, but still:
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Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Fri May 04 2018 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today east of the lower Great Lakes into the upper Ohio Valley and western portions of New England. This includes a threat for widespread damaging winds, as well as tornadoes across parts of New York and Vermont. ...NY/PA into New England... Progressive, compact shortwave trough continues to move quickly towards the Lower Great Lakes. Strong forcing for ascent along the leading edge of this system has resulted in banded thunderstorm development across Lower MI and adjacent portions of the Upper OH Valley. Numerous severe gusts (i.e. greater than 50 kt) were measured around the DTX as this line moved through. This convection has weakened somewhat as it moves across the cool water of Lake Erie but it is expected to re-intensify quickly once it moves into the steep low-level lapse rate environment over western NY and the Finger Lakes region. Additionally, storm coverage has increased south of Lake Erie across northern OH, with this activity expected to pose a downstream wind damage threat. Given current storm and environmental trends, a swath of significant wind gusts looks probable from BUF to BTV where very strong winds (60 to 70 kt) will exist just above the surface (i.e. 500m to 1000 km AGL) over the next few hours. Recent BUF VAD sampled the leading edge of this stronger flow, measuring 50 kt around 750m. Expectation is for these winds to mix down as the convective line moves through. As a result, 45% wind probabilities were delineated across the region where the best overlap of convective coverage, steep low-level lapse rates, and instability exists. This result in an upgrade to Moderate Risk from western NY northeastward into the Adirondacks. As discussed in the previous outlook (appended below), isolated/discrete cells are still possible over northeast NY as favorable kinematics align with sufficient instability. Tornado Watch 76 was recent issued to cover this threat. More short-term details can be found in MCD 350.
