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yoda

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  1. yoda
    Severe storm near Berkeley Springs WV warned for golf ball sized hail per updated SWS... looks like its headed SE toward or near MRB
  2. yoda
    Severe Thunderstorm Warning MDC001-043-WVC003-065-142100- /O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0045.180514T2019Z-180514T2100Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 419 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Washington County in north central Maryland... Northeastern Allegany County in western Maryland... Morgan County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... Berkeley County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 500 PM EDT. * At 418 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles west of Berkeley Springs, or 7 miles northeast of Paw Paw, moving southeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Martinsburg, Greenwood, Inwood, Berkeley Springs, Berkeley, Falling Waters, Great Cacapon, Hedgesville, Pecktonville, Big Spring, Big Pool, Little Orleans, Johnsons Mill, Tomahawk, Johnsontown, Valley View, Fishers Bridge, Spohrs Crossroads, Bunker Hill and Oakland.
  3. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 412 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central Allegany County in western Maryland... Northern Grant County in eastern West Virginia... Mineral County in eastern West Virginia... Northwestern Hardy County in eastern West Virginia... Northwestern Hampshire County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 500 PM EDT. * At 412 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Ridgeley to near Bayard, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Cumberland, Keyser, Westernport, Romney, Bel Air, Bayard, Fort Ashby, Piedmont, Elk Garden, Kitzmiller, Ridgeley, Cresaptown, Potomac Park, Wiley Ford, Rawlings, Springfield, Green Spring, Burlington, Oldtown and Luke.
  4. yoda
    Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A line of severe thunderstorms, accompanied by a swath of damaging winds, will continue southeast across parts of the Appalachians and lower Mid-Atlantic through this evening. Scattered severe storms producing large hail and damaging wind will also develop/persist from the southern Great Plains to the Lower Missouri Valley and Midwest late this afternoon and evening. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic... A convective complex is making steady progress through the central Appalachians as of 1930Z, with occasional strong wind gusts. Additionally, a few pulse/multicell storms, capable of marginally severe hail and downburst winds, have evolved across the higher terrain of western Virginia -- generally within an uncapped and weakly sheared environment. As the main complex continues its approach towards the Mid-Atlantic, it will encounter more favorable surface-based buoyancy, as well as relatively improved storm-relative inflow, given a more easterly component of flow in northern Virginia. In turn, the line should solidify/intensify some as it reaches the WV/VA border, with an attendant increase in the wind threat.
  5. yoda
    SPC says all systems go in latest MCD Mesoscale Discussion 0411 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018 Areas affected...portions of southeast OH...central/northern WV...southwest PA...central/western MD...northern VA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 88... Valid 141926Z - 142130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 88 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for damaging winds is expected to continue, and become potentially widespread, through this evening. DISCUSSION...A line of severe thunderstorms extended from southcentral PA west to near the WV/OH border near KPKB at 1915Z and was moving generally southeast at 30 mph. The line of storms was in the vicinity of a composite frontal boundary that extended from southern OH across northern VA and then southeast to near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. The environment downstream from the line of storms is characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and around 35 kts of westerly deep-layer shear. Special 18Z soundings from RNK and IAD show the eastern edge of the EML across western VA, and RAP guidance has been consistent in suggesting a continued eastward expansion of these steeper mid-level lapse rates east through this evening. This should contribute to pockets of strong surface-based instability developing over the next few hours. As the convectively-generated cold pool becomes more pronounced, the line of storms should accelerate to the east/southeast with a continued risk for damaging winds which should become more widespread with time. The stronger storms within the line will also pose a risk for large hail. As the convective line matures, some risk for a QLCS tornado will exist. More isolated severe storms have developed over the higher terrain of western VA, where MLCAPE of around 2000 J/kg exists but vertical shear is weak. These storms have a history of marginally severe hail, and may also pose a risk for localized strong wind gusts as storms merge into a small cluster and move towards central VA the remainder of this afternoon. ..Bunting.. 05/14/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
  6. yoda
    LWX did say in their AFD that warming and instability would grow as evening goes on and before the system gets here though
  7. yoda
    Its up on SPC now... just looks weird I guess
  8. yoda
    Afternoon AFD for this afternoon only:
  9. yoda
    He posted it in his post just after you posted
  10. yoda
    Wind damage has been reported in Verona, VA (down in the Augusta County cell)
  11. yoda
    18z sounding page up on SPC... but only for RNK and DVN
  12. yoda
    Storm down near Staunton in Augusta County doing well Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 238 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018 VAC015-790-820-141900- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-180514T1900Z/ Augusta VA-City of Staunton VA-City of Waynesboro VA- 238 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT FOR EAST CENTRAL AUGUSTA ...THE NORTHEASTERN CITY OF STAUNTON AND THE NORTHEASTERN CITY OF WAYNESBORO... At 238 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Crimora, or 7 miles north of Waynesboro, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Staunton, Waynesboro, Crimora, Fishersville, Verona, New Hope, Hermitage and Fort Defiance.
  13. yoda
    Figured so lol... been clicking refresh the past 5 minutes
  14. yoda
    Where would you find said sounding? SPC?
  15. yoda
    Ah okay... just didn't see it on their Twitter page... so should be out in like 20 minutes?
  16. yoda
    Did they do a SPEC?
  17. yoda
    So is Wiz heading west tomorrow morning?
  18. yoda
    It was way back in Licking County OH -- but there were power outages, trees down, and roofs damaged -- dunno if that will even affect us though
  19. yoda
    SPC new 1730 DAY 2 likes PA into NY into New England
  20. yoda
    Interesting... tor probs are 20/20... unexpected IMO Winds are 90/60
  21. yoda
    Looks like all of LWX CWA is included in the watch
  22. yoda
    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 88 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM EDT Mon May 14 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Western and central Maryland Southeast Ohio Southern Pennsylvania Northern Virginia Northern and central West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1230 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms will quickly evolve into a squall line that should progress east then southeast across the central Appalachians towards Chesapeake Bay. Damaging winds will be the primary hazard with a brief tornado or two possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles either side of a line from 40 miles northwest of Parkersburg WV to 20 miles south southeast of Baltimore MD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
  23. yoda
    They said they will at 2000 if even greater damaging wind becomes evident... and I just tweeted Ian about it
  24. yoda
    Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Potential exists for a derecho with widespread damaging winds across parts of the Central Appalachians and Lower Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon into early evening. A broad swath of scattered severe storms producing large hail and damaging wind is expected from the southern Great Plains across the Lower Missouri Valley and Midwest late afternoon and evening. ...Central Appalachians and Lower Mid-Atlantic States... A pair of elevated MCSs are ongoing along the OH/PA border and west-central OH. Robust diabatic heating is occurring to the south and east of the composite outflow/front to a persistent stratus deck over the Piedmont and Coastal Plain of PA to northeast VA. The northeast extent of a massive EML plume will contribute to MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg amid low to mid 60s surface dew points. On the southern periphery of enhanced mid-level westerlies, an increasingly organized line with embedded bows may develop. This will probably move east, before tending to evolve southeast after crossing the Appalachians this afternoon. Although CAM simulations vary markedly across the region, potential exists for a derecho with widespread damaging winds and have increased probabilities accordingly. An upgrade to Moderate risk may occur if even greater damaging wind coverage becomes evident with the 20Z outlook. The MCS should eventually weaken in southeast VA as it becomes increasingly divorced from stronger deep-layer shear.
  25. yoda
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