yoda

3rd time ever

Uh oh

CAPE isn't too bad, around 600 J/KG... but those SRH values at both 1km and 3km are >300, effective shear over 60 kts.... 0-6km shear is extreme... 1km shear of 40 kts Tells me there is definitely a threat for QLCS tornadoes in that line

Hmmm y 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large hail, severe gusts and possibly a few tornadoes, are expected on Sunday across parts of the Atlantic Coastal States. ...Atlantic Coastal States... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the mid Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes on Sunday, as an associated mid-level jet translates eastward into the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of this feature, a south-to-north corridor of low-level moisture will be in place early in the day in the lee of the Appalachians, from Georgia north-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Surface dewpoints along this corridor should be mostly in the 60s F. Along the western edge of this moist airmass, thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period. The storms are forecast to move eastward from the higher terrain of the Appalachians into the lower elevations during the day. Ahead of the storms, some destabilization is forecast. ECMWF forecast soundings near the moist axis suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range Sunday afternoon. In addition to the instability, strong deep-layer shear is forecast across most of the region due to the presence of the mid-level jet. As this feature moves to the east of the spine of the Appalachians, deep-layer shear is forecast to gradually increase. This will be favorable for a severe threat, associated with the stronger multicell line segments and/or rotating storms. Wind damage will be most favored along the leading edge of the faster-moving lines. Cells that remain discrete, and move into areas where the combination of instability and deep-layer shear is locally maximized, could become supercellular. Supercells will likely have potential for severe gusts and isolated large hail. An isolated tornado threat will also be possible, with the greatest tornado threat concentrated along and near the low-level jet during the afternoon, from the Carolinas into Virginia. Further north into the Hudson Valley, severe storms will also be possible. However, forecast instability in the Hudson Valley is less, suggesting the severe threat should remain marginal and more isolated. ..Broyles.. 03/14/2025

I'll be awake since I'll be at work

Wonder if we have enough clearing for the eclipse tonight

They got dropped to upper 50s for DC metro for both days in this mornings zones

Pretty large ENH and hatched areaon new Day 3 (Friday)

Day 6 SPC OTLK

Seattle has traded Metcalf to the Steelers https://www.profootballrumors.com/2025/03/seahawks-steelers-agree-to-d-k-metcalf-trade#ref=home https://x.com/TomPelissero/status/1898883556031475713

Borrowing this from the Tennessee Valley forum

@Kmlwx @high risk @Eskimo Joe Of course the usual caveats... but LWX AFD this afternoon already mentioning concern for severe thunderstorms next weekend LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dry weather will prevail through the end of the week. A backdoor front will slide north to south Wednesday, then lift back north as a warm front late Thursday. There is an outside chance of a shower as the front lifts back north at the end of the week. A powerful area of low pressure and strong associated cold front will develop over the Plains later this week, then track east by next weekend. Current guidance has a strong FROPA next Sunday. Increasing moisture ahead of the front combined with increasing low-level winds raises concerns for severe thunderstorms, but the magnitude of the threat will depend on the exact timing of FROPA and how much instability is able to develop.

Day 8 mention in this mornings SPC day 4 to 8 disco

Wow, Maryland women got destroyed in the 1st half... then got close, then destroyed in the 2nd half

The Capitals are set to acquire pending UFA winger Anthony Beauvillier from the Penguins, per Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet. They’re sending their 2025 second-round pick to Pittsburgh in return, Chris Johnston of TSN and The Athletic reports. After losing Jakub Vrána on waivers to the Predators yesterday, Washington had an open roster spot, so they won’t need to make a corresponding move. https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2025/03/capitals-to-acquire-anthony-beauvillier-from-penguins.html#ref=home

Now if we can only get rid of this wind nonsense... URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 244 AM EST Thu Mar 6 2025 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ053-054-501-502- 505-506-526-527-061545- /O.EXB.KLWX.WI.Y.0009.250306T1300Z-250307T0500Z/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard- Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 244 AM EST Thu Mar 6 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT... * WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of DC, central, north central, northeast, northern, and southern Maryland, and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 8 AM this morning to midnight EST tonight. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

Can't wait till next Tuesday for 70s

We'll see... some pickup in lightning and warned cell in W MD

Just had loud thunder

Been so for almost an hour now

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1226 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northern Stafford County in northern Virginia... Southeastern Fauquier County in northern Virginia... Southeastern Prince William County in northern Virginia... * Until 100 PM EST. * At 1226 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles west of Stafford, moving northeast at 55 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Lake Ridge, Montclair, Roseville, Triangle, Dale City, Independent Hill, Garrisonville, Quantico, Ramoth, Woodbridge, Dumfries, Cherry Hill, Heflin, Aquia, Storck, Holly Corner, Occoquan, Glendie, Hartwood, and Ruby. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3834 7760 3839 7762 3842 7765 3850 7766 3872 7738 3871 7737 3873 7736 3870 7732 3871 7730 3866 7722 3866 7720 3864 7722 3863 7720 3863 7714 3861 7718 3862 7722 3849 7731 TIME...MOT...LOC 1726Z 226DEG 48KT 3844 7756 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0027.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 27 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM EST Wed Mar 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Maryland Eastern/Southeastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 1025 AM until 600 PM EST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A convective line is expected to continue eastward/northeastward into more of eastern/southeastern VA and southern MD over the next several hours. Strong wind fields across the region will support the potential for damaging gusts within this line. A low probability for a brief tornado or two also exists

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 27 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1025 AM EST WED MAR 5 2025 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 27 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EST FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MDC009-017-019-037-039-045-047-052300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0027.250305T1525Z-250305T2300Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALVERT CHARLES DORCHESTER SOMERSET ST. MARYS WICOMICO WORCESTER VAC001-007-025-033-036-041-049-053-057-065-073-075-085-087-097- 099-101-103-109-111-115-117-119-127-131-133-135-137-145-147-149- 159-177-179-193-570-630-670-730-760-052300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0027.250305T1525Z-250305T2300Z/ VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ACCOMACK AMELIA BRUNSWICK CAROLINE CHARLES CITY CHESTERFIELD CUMBERLAND DINWIDDIE ESSEX FLUVANNA GLOUCESTER GOOCHLAND HANOVER HENRICO KING AND QUEEN KING GEORGE KING WILLIAM LANCASTER LOUISA LUNENBURG MATHEWS MECKLENBURG MIDDLESEX NEW KENT NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND NOTTOWAY ORANGE POWHATAN PRINCE EDWARD PRINCE GEORGE RICHMOND SPOTSYLVANIA STAFFORD WESTMORELAND VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE COLONIAL HEIGHTS FREDERICKSBURG HOPEWELL PETERSBURG RICHMOND

Severe Thunderstorm Watch up for S MD and C VA in the LWX CWA