yoda
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Everything posted by yoda
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Then brings another decent line through around 02z/03z TUES
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Fauquier and Warren and Rappahannock counties under STW near Front Royal... storm barely moving
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A magical STWatch has been issued for us until midnight
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Storms should improve in strength as they near the i95 corridor
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Pretty nasty CG strike just a minute ago here Torrential rainfall ongoing here
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Sun is back out after some torrential rain here... making it more humid
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Maybe a small part of it. LWX AFD mentioned the following:
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Sunny
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00z 3km NAM isn't bad for tomorrow... has some good storms in C MD into Baltimore and into parts of S MD... has a line that looks nice -- yes it skips the DC region for those that are going to meh it... 01z/02z HRRR both have some decent storms over the mountains getting ready to move eastward... 00z HRRR extended was better for those in MD than those in DC/VA
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You are def preparing for it when you said "eh it's okay for east of i95"
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Already calling another bust I see... figures
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So you are IN for tomorrow? Good to hear
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STW just SE of me for winds to up 70mph
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Hmmm BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1105 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... West central Madison County in northwestern Virginia... Southeastern Rockingham County in western Virginia... South central Page County in northwestern Virginia... Central Greene County in central Virginia... * Until 1145 PM EDT. * At 1105 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles southeast of Massanutten, or 16 miles southeast of Harrisonburg, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Elkton, Mcmullen, Mission Home, Swift Run, Lydia, Fletcher, Graves Mill, Jollett, Aylor, Haneytown, Saint George and Shady Grove. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3829 7870 3855 7852 3843 7827 3825 7857 TIME...MOT...LOC 0305Z 218DEG 23KT 3829 7862 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL...1.00IN WIND...60MPH
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It was out in Grant and Hardy... but was canceled after rotation weakened
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Hmmm... maybe? Mesoscale Discussion 1238 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0617 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Areas affected...Virginia...Maryland...Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 242317Z - 250145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage and hail will be possible across parts of Pennsylvania southward to Virginia this evening. Weather watch issuance can not be ruled out. DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a surface trough located from West Virginia southeastward into western Virginia with dewpoints ahead of the trough in lower 70s F. In response, a moderately unstable airmass is located from southern Pennsylvania into central and eastern Virginia where MLCAPE values range from 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms have developed in the central Appalachians along the western edge of the stronger instability. In addition to the instability, regional WSR-88D VWPS show moderate deep-layer shear with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 kt range. Although convective development will remain isolated, the environment should support a severe threat for a few more hours this evening. Wind damage and hail would be the primary threats. ..Broyles/Guyer.. 06/24/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
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Tornado warning out in WV
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Some pretty nice soundings showing up on the 00z NAM tonight from 21z MON to 06z TUES Pretty much last chance saloon for storms for next 7 to 10 days
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Pouring rain here again
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It's quite sunny now
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Probably don't count for very much at all, but both the 00z RGEM and 00z HRDPS rock DC metro at around 00z-01z FRI 00z 3km NAM looks like it has a tiny intense storm in DC at 00z too
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Looks like a mature bow echo will be coming through overnight URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 406 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and central Alabama Northeastern Arkansas Central and northern Mississippi Southern middle and southwestern Tennessee * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 1020 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A well-organized cluster and separate bow echo initially over eastern Arkansas, each with a well-developed wind signature and history of severe gusts, will proceed into and across the watch area. These systems could merge as well. Severe thunderstorm wind will remain the main threat, though an embedded tornado or two also is possible.
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LWX does mention ML Lapse Rates around 7.0 C/KM and fat cape... with sig amount in the hail growth zone on the soundings in their AFD:
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Good call... now SVR warned
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Big time VIL just north of Mineral... near 80 kg/m2 with def hail core
