yoda

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0374.html Mesoscale Discussion 0374 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Areas affected...parts of Alabama and into western and central Georgia and portions of the Florida Panhandle Concerning...Tornado Watch 110... Valid 130328Z - 130500Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 110 continues. SUMMARY...Severe/tornado risk continues across WW 109 and 110, and will spread eastward into western and central Georgia and parts of the Florida panhandle over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows convection now occurring in a complex/broken band from the southern Appalachians south-southwestward to near Mobile Bay. Within this band, several well-organized clusters of storms -- including numerous rotating updrafts and comma heads -- are indicated. Mixed-layer CAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg is indicated across this region, and extreme low-level shear is observed (0-1km shear 40 to 50 kt and 0-1km storm-relative helicity in excess of 700 m2/s2 across GA). Given the environment, tornado risk remains high with stronger clusters embedded within the main convective band, and with any cells which may develop in advance of the line. A new tornado watch will be issued shortly across southern and eastern Alabama, and into Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ..Goss.. 04/13/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

oh shit Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Morristown TN 1127 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2020 TNC065-130345- /O.CON.KMRX.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-200413T0345Z/ Hamilton TN- 1127 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2020 ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR OOLTEWAH AND COLLEGEDALE... ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTY... At 1126 PM EDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located near Ringgold, moving east at 45 mph. TORNADO EMERGENCY for OOLEWAH AND COLLEGEDALE. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Deadly tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Hamilton County, including the following locations... Collegedale, Ooltewah and Apison.

uh oh Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Morristown TN 1125 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2020 TNC065-130345- /O.CON.KMRX.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-200413T0345Z/ Hamilton TN- 1125 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTY... At 1125 PM EDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Ringgold, moving east at 45 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Hamilton County, including the following locations... Collegedale, East Brainerd, Ooltewah and Apison. This includes Interstate 75 in Tennessee between mile markers 4 and 13.

Tornado Watch(es) coming soon in NC -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0373.html

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0373.html Mesoscale Discussion 0373 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Areas affected...northern Georgia...southeast Tennessee...western and central portions of North and South Carolina Concerning...Tornado Watch 113... Valid 130317Z - 130445Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 113 continues. SUMMARY...Severe/tornado risk continues across WW 112 and 113. DISCUSSION...While earlier, more cellular convection has weakened/moved out of WW 112/113, an organized band of storms -- with embedded rotational radar signatures -- moving across northern Alabama will continue shifting east into northwest Georgia/southeast Tennessee over the next hour. Some low-level moistening has occurred across the area on strong southerly surface flow, with upper 60s dewpoints now extending to the GA/TN border, which has boosted mixed-layer cape to near 1000 J/kg per RUC-based objective analysis. The latest KFFC WSR-88D VWP shows extreme low-level and deep-layer shear (53 kt sfc-1 km and 86 kt 0-6 km), and therefore -- in conjunction with increased buoyancy -- expect risk for tornadoes and locally damaging winds to continue. Meanwhile east of the existing watches, into the western Carolinas, similarly strong low-level and deep-layer shear is indicated. While instability is weaker, a gradual increase in CAPE with time appears to be fueling small cellular development. With this convection possibly increasing in coverage/intensity with time, a new tornado watch may become necessary. ..Goss.. 04/13/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...

Radar confirmed TOR near Trenton, GA

Really?

TOG 8 miles SE of Benton TN per LE

TOG 8 miles SE of Benton, TN

Tornado Warning Polk County in E TN

So ENH risk (because of wind)... I'll go big... as usual lol... 10% TOR hatched, 15% hail, 30 % wind hatched

Apparently Spann is shocked by the CC drop per Stormtrack Discord

Um, TDS showing up now... this isnt good

Severe Tstorm Watch coming for W TN -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0114.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 114 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 820 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Arkansas Northeast Louisiana Missouri Bootheel Northwest Mississippi Western Tennessee * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 820 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of thunderstorms over Arkansas will track across the watch area this evening, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail.

New Severe Thunderstorm Watch coming for E AR/SE MO/NE LA/NW MS/W TN until 1 AM CDT

DPs beginning to rise through the 50s across the region

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0370.html Mesoscale Discussion 0370 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Areas affected...Much of Arkansas...western Tennessee...northwestern Mississippi...northern Louisiana...and northeastern Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 111... Valid 130056Z - 130300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 111 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging wind and hail will likely continue for the next couple hours across remaining portions of WW 111 and WW 108. A downstream WW will be considered pending convective trends. DISCUSSION...Storms with a history of damaging wind gusts continue with bowing segments/embedded rotation in an extensive linear segment moving through central/north-central Arkansas at this time. These storms should affect the Little Rock Metro area over the next half hour or so. These storms are moving quickly east-northeastward and should reach the eastern extent of WW 111 in Arkansas by around 0230Z or so. CAMs suggest that this activity will hold together beyond that time frame, with intensity in question as the downstream airmass has been overturned from prior convection. Nevertheless, forcing aloft with the vigorous upstream impulse may result in at least an isolated severe threat after 230Z in downstream areas. A new Watch may be needed and will be coordinated with downstream offices beforehand. Farther south, cells/clusters in northern Louisiana and northeast Texas have also produced wind damage and hail, and these trends should continue through the next couple hours as well. ..Cook.. 04/13/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...

New Tornado watch coming downstream of the N GA one shortly -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0369.html Mesoscale Discussion 0369 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Areas affected...northern GA...far southeast TN...and western portions of NC Concerning...Tornado Watch 112... Valid 130041Z - 130145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 112 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging wind/tornado risk is expanding into the southwestern TN area and adjacent portions of the western Carolinas. A new tornado watch will be issued. DISCUSSION...A long-lived, well-organized cluster of storms that has maintained tornadic potential despite the marginal thermodynamic environment, continues moving northeastward across northwestern GA/WW 112. Given the organization of the storms, it appears that damaging wind/tornado risk will continue spreading into western portions of North Carolina and far southeastern Tennessee. A new, small tornado watch will be issued shortly, downstream from WW 112. ..Goss.. 04/13/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0368.html Mesoscale Discussion 0368 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Areas affected...southeast Mississippi/central and southern Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 110... Valid 130036Z - 130200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 110 continues. SUMMARY...Severe/tornado risk continues across WW 110. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a couple of rotating cells moving east-northeastward across the northwestern corner of the WW at this time -- i.e. Greene/Sumter County area in Alabama. The broader band of convection that includes these storms extends south-southwestward into eastern Louisiana, where a few well-organized storms are occurring. This convection will spread into western portions of WW 110 over the next hour -- sustained by an axis of 1500 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE over the southwestern corner of Alabama. Given the background kinematic environment that remains strongly supportive of supercells, severe risk -- including potential for tornadoes -- continues. ..Goss.. 04/13/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...LIX...

23z HRRR sounding at DCA at 16z MON

FWIW, 23z HRRR really pumps the SBCAPE in the late morning into early afternoon... 2000+ SBCAPE... you can start seeing the increased surface instability grow as soon as 14z in the SW portions of the LWX CWA

Including ATL metro it seems as well ETA: and there it is... that was fast