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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 404 AM EST Thu Dec 31 2020 MDZ001-501-WVZ503-311715- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0004.210101T1200Z-210102T0600Z/ Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Western Mineral- 404 AM EST Thu Dec 31 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Significant icing possible. Total ice accumulations around one-quarter of an inch possible. * WHERE...In Maryland, Garrett and Extreme Western Allegany Counties. In West Virginia, Western Mineral County. * WHEN...From Friday morning through late Friday night. The best chance for freezing rain will be Friday afternoon and evening. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 404 AM EST Thu Dec 31 2020 MDZ502-VAZ507-508-WVZ501-502-504-311715- /O.EXA.KLWX.WS.A.0004.210101T1200Z-210102T0600Z/ Central and Eastern Allegany-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Western Grant-Eastern Grant- Eastern Mineral- 404 AM EST Thu Dec 31 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Significant icing possible. Total ice accumulations around one-quarter of an inch possible. * WHERE...Central and eastern Allegany County in Maryland, eastern Mineral County as well as western and eastern Grant County in West Virginia, and the northern and central Blue Ridge Mountains in Virginia. * WHEN...From Friday morning through late Friday night. The best chance for freezing rain will be Friday morning through Friday afternoon for the Blue Ridge Mountains, and Friday afternoon through Friday evening for the rest of the area. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

Getting there... but still a bit more work to do

Def not worrying... that system is probably going to be our first chance for snow again in the new pattern hopefully

Looks like it phased or neg tilts just a tad too early at the end of the GFS... but it was enticing

Looks like the GFS is going to show a fantastic fantasy snowstorm at the end of its run looking at h5 at 300

Better go let HM and Simon Lee and Eric Webb know then

@high risk @dtk sever backup is in Orlando? 000 NOUS42 KWNO 300936 ADASDM SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ALERT ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 0936Z WED DEC 30 2020 ...EMERGENCY WCOSS PRODUCTION SWITCH - FINAL UPDATE... NCO has completed post emergency switch model production cleanup. NCEP model production is running normally in Orlando. Final model delays (this list is not fully inclusive as not all models are tracked for timeliness): * 00Z GEFS (110 min after forecast hour 90) * 00Z HWRF (130 min, running 2 storms for JTWC) * 04Z CIP (70 min) * 05Z CIP (18 min) * 03Z HRRR (130 min after forecast hour 10) * 03Z RAP (2 hrs after forecast hour 42) * 04Z RAP (50 min) * 03Z SREF (110 min) * 06Z HRRR (55 min) * 06Z NAM smartinit (up to 60 min) * 06Z HIRESW AK and PR smartinit (up to 50 min) Ready/SDM/NCO/NCEP

i did not know this https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/status/messages/ SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 0511Z WED DEC 30 2020 PROD JOB SUBMISSIONS UPDATE - EMERGENCY WCOSS PRODUCTION SWITCH TO ORLANDO... One of the supercomputers in Reston (Luna) has encountered a filesystem problem. NCO's model production team and IBM are preparing for an emergency production supercomputer switch to Orlando. Ready/SDM/NCO/NCEP

double hmmm... from LWX morning disco

hello there

Hmmm

We haven't seen a -NAO/-AO tandem in years and when we finally do... some apparently have to find something wrong with it.

We don't necessarily need Pacific help... just time things correctly or have the ridge in the West in the correct spot as a s/w comes through or SLP and we are fine. We don't need a raging +PNA to get snow around here in January and February... a slightly positive PNA will do the trick

ofc first comment was Ji

Excellent and very detailed thread by HM (Anthony Masiello) about SSW and upcoming pattern for rest of winter through analog perspective https://mobile.twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1343822175892074496

Webb also tweeted about "the pattern is x amount if days away therefore bullcrap" crowd too https://mobile.twitter.com/webberweather/status/1343651365709619211

Sounds like Webb is in the snow train https://mobile.twitter.com/webberweather/status/1343831117162545155 https://mobile.twitter.com/webberweather/status/1343682463546175494 https://mobile.twitter.com/webberweather/status/1343646568474406915

Wow https://mobile.twitter.com/webberweather/status/1343835393028927489

Beach weather in Salisbury today apparently

More like a severe weather threat on the 00z UKIE for the LWX CWA IMO at 138/144 -- 60-70 kts bulk shear and temps 65-70 degrees at 00z THUR

Well the Raiders kicker did miss an XP earlier in the 4th quarter... so we could have had OT instead The Coastal Carolina/Liberty ending to their football game was wow as well