yoda

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1238 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...FIRST WIDESPREAD WINTER EVENT OF THE SEASON... .Precipitation is expected to overspread the area after midnight tonight from southwest to northeast. While precipitation is likely to start as snow areawide, it is expected to mix with and change to sleet and freezing rain for most of the area. Locations along and south of US-50/I-66 likely end the event as rain as temperatures warm through the morning. Areas along the Mason-Dixon are most likely to remain all snow through the event, but that remains uncertain given exact low track. The Tuesday morning commute could be impacted for all areas in the Winter Weather Advisory. Updates to the forecast are likely, so please remain weather aware for the first widespread winter event of the season. MDZ003>006-507-WVZ051>053-011345- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0022.251202T0800Z-251202T1800Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Harford-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- 1238 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts upwards of 4 inches possible near the Mason-Dixon and higher elevations such as Parr`s Ridge. Ice accumulations around up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of north central and northern Maryland and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From 3 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation is expected to overspread the area after after midnight tonight. Precipitation is expected to start as snow before mixing with sleet and freezing rain. Should precipitation stay all snow or snow for a longer period of time, locally higher snowfall amounts would be possible.

BWI: 21.4" DCA: 16.7" IAD: 24.3" RIC: 9.7” ----- SBY: 8.3"

@mitchnick putting it in the wrong thread lol

EPS was tasty... but we shall see lol

Oh okay then (this afternoon AFD from LWX) LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A more active weather pattern is likely to build over region late this weekend and continue to the early parts of next week bringing multiple chances for wintry precipitation. The first chance in the long term period for wintry precipitation will occur Sunday into early Monday morning as a strong sfc low passes to the north with it`s attending front moving through our region on Sunday. As precipitation associated with the front moves into the region, cold air in place ahead of the boundary may allow for some front end wintry precipitation. Additional wintry precipitation will be possible on the back end side of the front as cold air rushes into the region. Model guidance continues to have considerable spread on precipitation types with freezing rain and snow possible. Based recent trends,the best chance for impactful wintry precipitation at this time will likely be in areas along and west of the I-81 corridor. A brief lull in precipitation is likely on Monday, but a strong coastal low passing to the south of the region will bring another round of precipitation to the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Weather models have a range of solutions for the Tuesday event with some solutions having a combination heavy rain and some wintry precipitation and other solutions indicating the chance for a decent accumulating snow event. National Blend of Model plume graphics really shows the uncertainty with snow solutions ranging from 0 inches to near 15 inches of snow. At this time, we continue to have low confidence in the wintry threat early next week, but it`s a period of note worth keeping an eye on for planning purposes. &&

Indeed it is

12z Ukie smokes BR and west

And the ukie aka crazy uncle squashed the 12/2 threat at 12z

The cold air press looks stronger than the GFS/GGEM based off the 540 line location

Very nice.... weather outside

Can't I have a piece of that negative NAO? La Nina doesn't need that

New thread been give

Its time for snow. And cold. But mainly snow please

You have good luck... start it

I know this is from SNE... but would this be good for us in future days after? Or is this a gradient pattern that sucks for us? Today's 12z EPS at the very end btw

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/47017746/orioles-acquire-taylor-ward-angels-grayson-rodriguez

30% bust 50% normal 20% boom

I'd definitely take a decent event. I'm assuming thats a 2-4/3-6 kind of deal... but we haven't had many decent December snowfall down here recently

Saw a few flakes walking to my car during lunch break at work

I'll take what the 12z Euro is selling at 204 please Alex

I didn't get an answer directly, but LWX FB page has an image showing the growing season is over in the LWX CWA for everyone but St. Mary's/Calvert in S MD and King George in VA

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface cold front will be off the Atlantic coast Monday morning with a deep parent upper trough expected to pivot overhead by early Tuesday. Strong cold air advection is expected behind this front Sunday night through Monday evening on blustery NW winds gusting up to 35 mph. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be hard to get out of the 40s with wind chills in the 20s at night and mid 30s during the day. Accumulating snow showers are expected for areas west of the Allegheny Front. High Froude numbers on Monday associated with the strong NW flow indicate potential for snow showers to make it well east of the mountains Monday afternoon, possibly dusting the ground in a few places. Over the mountains, two to fourth tenths liquid water equivalent amounts combined with high SLRs of 18 to 1 may yield snow totals of 3 to 7 inches over the favored upslope areas such as Bayard WV and western Garrett County MD. As of right now, it still looks like an advisory level snow event with a small chance of meeting warning criteria.

I know this may be more SNE-centric... but i liked seeing this from Will.

True. I checked the PNSLWX... so I tweeted them to ask