yoda

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WISCONSIN...SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon through tonight along a corridor from northeastern Minnesota across Wisconsin into southwest Lower Michigan. A few severe storms are also expected this afternoon over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...Discussion... The only change this outlook update is to upgrade severe-wind probabilities from the southern half of Lake Michigan southeastward into northwest OH. Recent runs of the HRRR indicate an intense rear inflow jet late tonight as a bow moves southeastward across Lake Michigan into the Michiana vicinity. Confidence in a widespread severe-gust threat has increased and is depicted in the minor nudges upwards in probabilities. ..Smith.. 07/28/2021

Well written afternoon disco by LWX for tomorrow... but haven't seen some of that wording in a long time .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Tomorrow`s forecast is a challenging one locally. A very strong MCS is expected to develop over the Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes this evening into tonight. This MCS should eventually weaken overnight as it moves into a lower CAPE environment over the Ohio Valley. A remnant outflow boundary/convective debris will spread over at least northern portions of the area tomorrow morning, with a connectively enhanced speed max in the 700-500 hPa layer following immediately in its wake. There is a wide spread of possible solutions in model guidance with respect to subsequent development of storms across our area tomorrow. Some solutions try to refire storms along the leading edge of the remnant outflow as it sweeps eastward across the area. Other solutions keep this activity suppressed. Other solutions fire additional storms in the wake of the convective debris. Some solutions do not. The environment in the wake of the leftover convective debris as the convectively enhanced speed max moves overhead is concerning. Models such as the NAM and Euro spread a belt of 40-50 knot flow in the 700-500 hPa layer over the northern half of our CWA by around peak heating. If we were to destabilize and storms were to form in that type of environment, the potential is there for a significant severe weather event, with very high winds, large hail, and tornadoes all possible. However, there`s considerable disagreement amongst the various models as to if and where storms will form in the wake of what`s left of today`s Upper Midwest system. Strong MCSs are often not handled well by both the CAMs and global guidance, and any system that forms today will have a strong influence on our weather for tomorrow. As a result, confidence in the evolution of storms tomorrow remains low. Confidence should gradually increase over time as today`s system gets going and becomes better handled by model guidance. We`ll continue to refine our forecast for what is a low confidence, but also potentially high impact severe weather event tomorrow.

Most of VA was included in the SLGT risk and 5% tor

Mmmmm tasty disco Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with wind damage and a risk for a tornado, will be possible from the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states on Thursday. ...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic/Mid Mississippi Valley... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across the southern Great Lakes in association with an MCV. This mid-level feature embedded within northwesterly flow, is expected to result from a severe squall line over the western Great Lakes prior to the start of the period. In the low levels, a surface low initially over the central Great Lakes will develop eastward into New England late Thursday night. An attendant cold front will push southeast across a large part of the OH Valley with the trailing portion of the boundary extending into the central High Plains. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of convection from IN into PA through the early afternoon. A myriad of possible scenarios are evident in the latest convection-allowing model guidance in terms of the details of storm redevelopment during the afternoon. With those concerns stated, a moist airmass will extend from the Corn Belt eastward into the Mid-Atlantic states with 60s and lower 70s F dewpoints. Strong heating on the periphery of earlier cloud debris will result in a moderate to very unstable airmass (1000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). A belt of strong westerly 700-mb flow is forecast to overspread the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic states during the afternoon. Several linear clusters or a combination of linear clusters and supercells are possible from the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic states. Damaging gusts and tornadoes are possible with the more intense thunderstorms. Lower storm coverage and weaker deep-layer shear farther west over IL/MO will likely limit storm organization and the overall risk for severe thunderstorms.

SLGT risk moved south on 1730 update... includes all of LWX CWA. 5/5/15

SLGT risk to the southwest of NYC... MRGL for CT/RI and SE MA in 1730 update

Hmmm... updated morning discussion sounds intriguing for this afternoon and evening Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1035 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front stalled in the region today will be the focus of a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. A much stronger front later Thursday and Thursday night will result in more widespread showers and storms. High pressure will return Friday and linger into the weekend, with cooler and drier air taking hold. Another system may approach early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Mid-morning update: Current visible satellite imagery shows mostly sunny skies across the area, allowing strong daytime heating to occur. 12z IAD sounding shows steeper than climo mid-level lapse rates (6.5 C/km) and lots of dry air in the mid- upper levels. With strong daytime heating occurring, low- level lapse rates are expected to become very steep as well (exceeding 9.5 C/km). The sounding shows 1164 J/kg of DCAPE prior to daytime heating, and that value should only increase. The combination of steep low-level lapse rates, better than climo mid-level lapse rates, high DCAPE, and decent flow in the mid- levels suggests that damaging winds could be a threat with any storms this afternoon. Can`t rule out an instance or two of large hail with any stronger storms either, given the better than climo mid- level lapse rates, ample dry air in the mid- levels, and decent shear through a deep layer. In the absence of stronger forcing for ascent both aloft and at the surface, the smaller details with respect to placement and timing of storms remain a bit up in the air. We`ll continue to monitor trends through the remainder of the day.

Some pretty nice soundings showing up on 12z NAM for 21z THUR and 00z FRI across the region Like KMRB and KHGR at 21z THUR

Interesting...

Thursday... hmm... nice SPC map. I know it's i66 north for now... but can see it coming south some... some beefy wording in the morning day 2 disco too

Where else was he going lol

@nj2va @nw baltimore wx @H2O Dillon traded to Jets for 2 2nd round picks (2022 and 2023 drafts) https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2021/07/brenden-dillon-dealt-to-winnipeg-jets.html#ref=home

Sunday then midweek maybe?

Coach gone for not getting vaccine https://www.profootballrumors.com/2021/07/patriots-co-offensive-line-coach-off-staff-due-to-covid-19-policy#ref=home

Check in with our resident brewer in WV... at least I think he is

Looks like a decent cell in central Loudoun already Intiation also NW of i81 corridor (Cumberland to MRB area)

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 385 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut District Of Columbia Delaware Southeast Massachusetts Central and Eastern Maryland New Jersey Southeast New York Southeast Pennsylvania Rhode Island Northeast Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 1155 AM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will develop this afternoon along a weak cold front extending from northern Virginia into eastern Massachusetts. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail.

Watch up until 8pm for DC and Arlington/Loudoun/Fairfax/Prince William counties in VA Pretty good chunk of MD in the watch too... as far west as Washington County in the watch... includes all of S MD into the Delmarva

Looks like a watch coming soon for DC and to the northeast along i95 corridor into Delmarva

You may wish to fix this post lol

Maybe a few isolated severe storms this afternoon?

You get a MRGL from SPC

Late weekend into next week could be fun if things are timed right

@Windspeed @WxWatcher007

92/76 at 2pm at DCA... yuck