yoda

That warning for the other N VA storm... yikes

Pouring here in Fairfax

Now I want crab cakes for dinner

Wouldn't be surprised if something was on the ground...

@Mrs.J is up there no? Or is that @psuhoffman?

Just got warned

SWS for Carroll County cell in MD talking it up about being extremely dangerous

Wonder if on the 1300z SPC OTLK they nudge the ENH risk SW some to include a bit more of N VA into C VA

06z NAM sounding at BWI at 00z tonight is

Don't see these from LWX too often... from last night... SWS for Albermarle County

This was the early morning disco from LWX about today FWIW NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest analysis depicts a weak stationary front straddled northwest to southeast across the area. A stronger front and low pressure is located over the Great Lakes, with the low heading east and the front progressing southeast. Aloft, a weak shortwave is passing to the east with a second stronger shortwave over the Great Lakes. This is all embedded within a dominant northwest flow as a longwave trough remains to our northeast, and a ridge sits over the central Plains. Showers early this morning associated with the departing shortwave should dissipate shortly. The clouds and increased moisture over the region have kept temps in the higher 60s to lower 70s. This relatively high starting point will give us a boost, but clouds moving in from the MCS to our northwest will start overspreading the area this morning. This MCS likely will greatly affect our severe weather threat today as the strong shortwave and cold front moves into the region. If the MCS impact is minimal, with cloud cover relatively thin and brief and minimal if any showers, then our odds of a significant severe weather outbreak will be quite high thanks to ample CAPE combined with the high shear moving overhead. However, if the MCS holds together more and we have extended cloud cover and more showers/weakening storms, the high CAPE component will be harder to come by, which could potentially significantly damper the severe weather potential. Will need to watch progress of the system closely. Right now, areas least likely to be affected by the morning MCS appear to be the Baltimore area and points north and east, where an enhanced risk of severe weather is now in place from the SPC. This risk tapers to slight and then marginal further south and west, where the MCS influence is likely to be more substantial. Highs likely reach the mid-upper 80s, perhaps with spotty 90s, with higher temps of course more likely to fuel stronger storms later today. Best timing for storms looks to be very late afternoon and evening across the metro, assuming the MCS doesn`t disrupt CAPE too much.

Meanwhile in Albemarle County last night

Zones include severe wording with damaging winds and large hail

Some PDS TOR soundings on 00z NAM across the region FWIW

So about the 00z NAM soundings across the region from 21z to 03z... 00z NAM sounding for 00z tonight at KIAD = Yes, I know the usual caveats... but you don't see those everyday around here

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with wind damage and a risk for a tornado, will be possible from the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states on Thursday. ...Northeast through Middle Atlantic area... Upper pattern in this region will be characterized by a broad trough today. MCV/shortwave trough embedded within the synoptic trough will move from the lower Great Lakes to the Middle Atlantic. At the surface a warm front will move northward through the Middle Atlantic, while a cold front advances southeast, reaching PA and the central Appalachians by evening. Thunderstorms should be in progress at the start of the period in association with the MCV over the southern portion of the Great Lakes. Other storms may be ongoing in the warm-advection regime north of the warm front over a portion of the Middle Atlantic. Widespread multi-layer clouds may precede the warm front. However, the warm sector should become moderately unstable during the afternoon with 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE supported by the advection of richer low-level moisture and pockets of diabatic heating. Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front in association with ascent attending the southeast-moving MCV as well as along the southeast-advancing cold front. This area will reside within belt of stronger mid-upper flow associated with the synoptic trough supporting 40-45 kt effective bulk shear. Therefore, some supercells may evolve along with line segments with bowing structures as activity develops southeast during the afternoon into the evening. Primary threat appears to be damaging wind and possibly some hail, though low-level hodographs will be sufficient for a few tornadoes, especially if sufficient instability can develop in vicinity of the warm front.

Enhanced risk for N VA/DC/MD today... 5/15/30

5:05 pm: There are twelve total positive cases, manager Dave Martinez told reporters (including Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post). Those are four players (including Turner) and eight staff members. Eleven of the twelve have been vaccinated, according to Martinez. Fortunately, no one involved feels seriously ill, which the skipper attributed to the high vaccination rate among those infected. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/07/phillies-nationals-game-postponed-due-to-covid-issues.html

However...

FWIW, confirmed SVR in St. Mary's County little while ago as spotters reported quarter sized hail in California

I never know with him. Sometimes its easy to spot his trolls... other times I really think he believes this stuff that she tweets out

Mesoscale Discussion 1378 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0509 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021 Areas affected...portions of east-central and northeast MN...northern WI Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 282209Z - 290015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Rapid development of supercell thunderstorms is anticipated in the next few hours, with a risk for very large hail, damaging winds, and potentially a few tornadoes. A Tornado Watch will likely be issued prior to 00z. DISCUSSION...A warm front extended south/southeast across central/southern MN at 22z, and this front will continue to move east through this evening as a weak surface low moves east across central MN. Latest visible imagery reveals moderate/towering cumulus over central MN north of the Twin Cities area, embedded within a larger area of clouds over central/northern MN and northern WI. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop in the next few hours near the warm front and move southeast during the evening. Northwesterly deep-layer shear of 45-55 kts in the vicinity of the front will support intense supercells initially, and locally-enhanced 0-3 km SRH will be favorable for low-level rotation and potential for tornado development. Steep mid-level lapse rates will also support a risk for very large hail, and damaging winds are also expected. Current thinking is that the tornado threat will warrant a Tornado Watch for the first few hours after initiation given the near-storm environment, with eventual transition into a fast-moving MCS with widespread damaging wind potential later this evening/overnight. A Tornado Watch will likely be coordinated with affected NWS Weather Forecast Offices prior to 00z. ..Bunting/Goss.. 07/28/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...

Really? You are going to use her as a source/link?

Pretty nice soundings on the 18z NAM for the region at 21z and 00z tomorrow