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yoda

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  1. yoda
  2. yoda
    SPC has gone ENH from N VA into PA on 1630z OTLK
  3. yoda
    Plus with PBZ issuing it's 3rd TW in the past 20 minutes... I'm just guessing they would go TOR... but who knows
  4. yoda
    True... I was going by last paragraph Mesoscale Discussion 0376 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Areas affected...Western/central Pennsylvania into western Maryland Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 311607Z - 311730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage is possible early this afternoon as storm develop in western Pennsylvania/Maryland. Storm intensity is expected to increase later this afternoon into central/eastern Pennsylvania and adjacent areas of Maryland. Trends will continue to be monitored for a watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Cloud cover has continued to clear across West Virginia into western Pennsylvania as mid-level dry air overspreads the area. Though MLCAPE values remain below 300 J/kg, surface heating has brought temperatures in southwestern Pennsylvania into the upper 60s F. Low-level lapse rates are likely steepened enough to support a risk for damaging wind gusts given 50-60 kts of wind within the lowest 2 km on regional VAD winds. Into central Pennsylvania, more time will be require to destabilize as cloud cover has kept temperatures in the mid/upper 50s F. However, with the decreasing cloud cover expected, an increasing severe risk will probably occur by mid-afternoon. Southerly winds should advect increasing moisture into the area as well. Limited buoyancy and veered surface winds in western Pennsylvania will limit the tornado risk with early activity. Surface winds will remain more backed in central/eastern Pennsylvania along with greater 850 mb wind speeds. The greater tornado threat is likely to exist farther east and later this afternoon. ..Wendt/Hart.. 03/31/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...
  5. yoda
    Sounds like maybe a tornado watch coming later for N MD into C PA per MCD
  6. yoda
    Can see some breaks of sunshine here
  7. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1157 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northern Indiana County in west central Pennsylvania... Jefferson County in west central Pennsylvania... Southeastern Armstrong County in west central Pennsylvania... Southeastern Clarion County in west central Pennsylvania... * Until 1245 PM EDT. * At 1156 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 8 miles north of New Bethlehem to 12 miles west of Punxsutawney to 8 miles west of Indiana, moving northeast at 70 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Trees snapped and uprooted. Power outages. * Locations impacted include... Punxsutawney, Brookville, Reynoldsville, Brockway, New Bethlehem, Sykesville, Falls Creek, Rural Valley, West Lebanon, Big Run, Dayton, and Summerville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms likely are producing very strong wind gusts. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows! Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH. && LAT...LON 4120 7877 4113 7880 4081 7881 4054 7940 4087 7928 4115 7936 4138 7897 4136 7896 4126 7874 4123 7874 4123 7871 4120 7871 TIME...MOT...LOC 1556Z 236DEG 60KT 4112 7927 4091 7922 4065 7931 TORNADO...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH
  8. yoda
    I'd imagine we will see an MCD for our region in the next hour or so from SPC
  9. yoda
    Storm moving NE at 60 mph ETA: now east motion
  10. yoda
    Wait there's a blizzard on the GFS again? Lol
  11. yoda
    AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1020 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will approach the area later today, then cross the area tonight. High pressure will build in Friday into Saturday. A cold front and wave of low pressure are expected to move over the area Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure is expected to make another brief return early next week before unsettled weather returns by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The focus of the near term will be on the potential for severe thunderstorms with the primary threat being damaging winds and the potential for an isolated tornado and large hail. The main uncertainty for this event will be how much instability is realized, and if it is rooted within the boundary layer. 12Z CAMs continue to show an upward trend in potential instability this afternoon/evening along and east of I-81. If this instability comes to fruition, given the ample shear in place and height falls along the trough/cold front, strong to severe thunderstorms could be more widespread in nature. The LLJ will be pumping Gulf Moisture into the area at 55-70 kts at 850 mb and 40-60 kts at 925 mb. There is the potential for cellular storms ahead/along the cold front before they congeal into a linear feature that may include the potential for mesovorticies along the leading edge. Again, this all depends on if modeled instability is realized. Previous discussion follows...
  12. yoda
    Ah okay, makes sense... though probably means the US will be making it out of the group as the runners up IMO
  13. yoda
    LCLs were basically in the 500s... so yes lol
  14. yoda
    Agreed. Not exactly sure what is meant by pots as described here... but US and Mexico are in Pot 2 and Canada is in Pot 4. Groups will be announced tomorrow at noon https://www.espn.com/soccer/fifa-world-cup/story/4628652/world-cup-finals-draw-pots-and-seedings-confirmed-for-fridays-ceremony
  15. yoda
    Interesting re bolded .Southeastern CONUS to Hudson Valley region... The earliest threat area is ongoing -- across portions of the FL Panhandle, southern GA and northwestern FL. See SPC tornado watch 85 and related mesoscale discussions for details on the near-term threats with this activity. A broad plume of low-level theta-e advection will combine with muted diurnal heating to at least marginally destabilize the boundary layer today, in a broad swath from the Carolinas into the northern Mid-Atlantic. This will support additional bands of scattered to numerous showers, and widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms, expected to develop from the southern Piedmont to the central Appalachians and move quickly northeastward across the outlook area today. A mixed mode of QLCS (bows, LEWPs and embedded mesovortices) and a few supercells are possible, supporting a threat for damaging gusts (a few severe at 50+ kt intensity) and a few tornadoes. With weakly unstable lapse rates, preconvective dewpoints reaching the mid 50s north to mid 50s south will be counterbalanced by somewhat colder air aloft in the mid-Atlantic, warmer over the Carolinas to Delmarva. The 12Z IAD sounding sampled a likely narrow ribbon of a remnant of the southern Plains EML, within a broader area of weak 600-800-mb lapse rates. Peak warm-sector MLCAPE should reach the 100-500 J/kg range over the Mid-Atlantic and 500-1000 J/kg over the Carolinas, and 1000-1500 J/kg in southeastern GA and northern FL. As noted above, the strongest mid/upper winds will be over the middle parts of the outlook area today, while a 60-75-kt LLJ takes shape from the Carolinas into the eastern Mid-Atlantic. This will foster effective-shear magnitudes peaking around 60-75 kt in the NC/VA/MD region, decreasing but still strong northward and southward. Meanwhile, lengthy hodographs will support effective SRH in the 200-400 J/kg range over much of the corridor. Strongest forcing for ascent should be ahead of the front in the northern parts of the area where buoyancy is weakest, in a strong-shear/ low-CAPE scenario. Uncertainty remains as to coverage of severe gusts reaching the surface given some constraints on low-level lapse rates, but even subsevere winds will be capable of minor structural damage and trees down. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 03/31/2022
  16. yoda
    5% tor added on 1300z OTLK
  17. yoda
    FWIW, both 09z HRRR and 10z RAP suggest STP values of 1-2 across the i95 region btwn 21z and 00z
  18. yoda
    06z NAM hodo's and 0-3/0-1km SRH values def would suggest tornado threat this evening
  19. yoda
    Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 530 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508- VAZ052>057-010930- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George- 530 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, but hail or a few tornadoes are possible as well. Strong winds may lead to isolated instances of wind damage even outside of thunderstorms.
  20. yoda
    Morning LWX AFD disco on the threat today... hope we can get some more instability then what is being modeled Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 406 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will approach the area later today, then cross the area tonight. High pressure will build in Friday into Saturday. A cold front and wave of low pressure are expected to move over the area Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure is expected to make another brief return early next week before unsettled weather returns by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Deepening surface cyclone over the western Great Lks will move into western Quebec by tonight. Ahead of its associated cold front, a strong low-lvl flow will develop over the area with 925 and 850 mb winds increasing to 45kt and 65kt respectively by 18Z today. 500 mb heights will fall around 100 meters in 12 hours today leading to large scale ascent for upward vertical motion. Widespread showers and low-topped thunderstorms are expected beginning by 12Z across the Appalachian region and will spread east through the day, exiting the Chesapeake Bay by 03Z tonight. While instability will be limited (CAPE values generally 250-500 J/kg), magnitude of low-lvl winds is such that any showers or thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts. Even outside of showers, gradient winds are strong enough to support 40-45 mph winds. While deep layer shear is strong enough to support supercells, limited instability will likely limit tornado potential. Most CAMs indicate a linear mode of convection with a squall line moving through the area in the 18Z-02Z time frame. There will also be a low risk for flooding across northeast Maryland where models indicate some training convection possible. Showers will exit by 06Z but upslope rain/snow showers will persist into Friday.
  21. yoda
    2/5/15 on the new Day 1... but disco says higher probs possible depending on instability ...North Carolina into the Lower Hudson Valley... A mid-level impulse will eject into the Hudson Valley during the afternoon and overspread the core of the low-level jet, promoting an intense tropospheric vertical wind profile and associated strong deep-layer shear. Enlarged hodographs from the Carolina Piedmont northward suggest storm organization with any convection that can intensify and become surface-based. The primary factor limiting the introduction of higher probabilities this outlook is scant buoyancy. 5.5-6.5 C/km low- and mid-level lapse rates atop 55-60F surface dewpoints may promote SBCAPE up to 750 J/kg across North Carolina, to 250-500 J/kg into the Hudson Valley. Damaging gusts and a brief tornado may accompany any sustained, robust updrafts, hence the maintenance of a Category 2/Slight risk. Given 50-60 kt flow at/just below 500 meters AGL and the enlarged hodographs, higher wind/tornado probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if it becomes evident that greater surface-based instability will be realized.
  22. yoda
  23. yoda
    Some of those 00z NAM soundings (21z THUR and 00z FRI) are a bit ominous... especially since its March still
  24. yoda
    Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1008 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 ALC091-310330- /O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0033.000000T0000Z-220331T0330Z/ Marengo AL- 1008 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN MARENGO COUNTY... At 1008 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Linden, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Linden, Uniontown, Thomaston, Faunsdale, Dayton, Freddie Jones Field, Chickasaw State Park and Octagon.
  25. yoda
    Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Birmingham AL 958 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 ALC007-021-310345- /O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0036.000000T0000Z-220331T0345Z/ Chilton AL-Bibb AL- 958 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN CHILTON AND SOUTHEASTERN BIBB COUNTIES... At 957 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Talladega National Forest, or 10 miles southeast of Brent, moving northeast at 60 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Calera, Centreville, Jemison, Thorsby, Maplesville, Lawley, Ashby, Brierfield Ironworks Park, Talladega National Forest, Chilton County Motor Sports Park, Randolph, Minooka Park, Trio, Six Mile and Bibb County Airport. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.
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