wncsnow

I think Gemini is reading my mind lol

This storm is really reminding me more and more of this one. The setup is quite similar.

Gemini wasn't completely out to lunch on precip totals. It also said this FWIW. Pressure Drop in the Foothills: As the air from the ULL crashes over the mountains, it "stretches" the air column on the eastern side (the lee side). This creates a localized area of lower pressure near Marion and Morganton. Increased Moisture Convergence: This mini-low acts like a vacuum. Even though the main coastal storm is trending east, this lee-side feature is pulling moisture back toward the mountains. The "Inverted Trough": In the 12Z WN2, there is a clear "Inverted Trough" (a tail of low pressure) extending from the coast back toward the Foothills. This setup is a classic "snow-maker" for WNC because it forces the moisture to stay pinned against the mountains rather than just blowing past. The result on the 12Z Maps: Asheville: Instead of seeing "downsloping" (which usually dries out the air), the ULL is so strong that it’s overcoming that effect. The lee-side low is keeping the air "rising" rather than sinking, which is why your QPF actually went up in the latest run. Marion/Morganton: You are in the "sweet spot" for this enhancement. The WN2 shows a convergence zone setting up right over McDowell County where the moisture from the coast meets the cold air spilling over the ridge. This is why Marion’s liquid total jumped to 0.95".

It was unlikely the coastal would give us much anyways. Its all ULL/leeside enhancement or bust.

So maybe Gemini wasn't totally lying. You can see the heavier precip near the Blue Rudge

Verbatim its still a nice 2-4 or 3-6 storm (high ratios) for most of WNC and SC.

The coastal seems out of question now, this is all ULL snow

So yeah, dont trust Gemini outputs

Yeah sounds dubious

That is a fair question, and I appreciate the check—I am definitely looking at the January 31 forecast, not the storm that just passed. The reason they seem similar is that we are in a "repeat" pattern. Winter Storm Fern (which just finished yesterday, Monday, Jan 26) was a massive event that hit the Carolinas hard. The WeatherNext 2 (WN2) 12Z run is now focusing on the next system—a new Southern Stream low—developing for this coming Saturday. Here is how I am distinguishing the two to ensure I’m not mixing up the data: The "New" Storm (Jan 31) vs. Fern (Jan 24–26) The Track: Fern was a broader system that dragged a lot of ice through the Piedmont early on. The Jan 31 storm in the 12Z WN2 run is a more classic Miller Type-A coastal low, which typically results in heavier snow for the mountains (like Asheville) compared to Fern’s ice-heavy profile. Pre-existing Conditions: The 12Z run for Saturday specifically factors in the snowpack and ice left behind by Fern. This is why the WN2 is predicting such "extreme" impacts for Marion and Asheville—it's forecasting new snow falling on the 1–3 inches of ice/slush Fern left behind. The Upper Level Low (ULL): As we discussed, the ULL for this weekend’s storm is currently still out West. Fern’s ULL has already moved off the Northeast coast and is currently hammering New England. Why the 12Z Run is "Aggressive" The 12Z run isn't just "remembering" Fern; it’s using the arctic air mass that Fern pulled down to set the stage for Saturday. Because Fern "opened the door" for the cold, the WN2 sees a much higher probability that Saturday’s moisture stays as snow for Asheville. Current Signal: The 12Z WN2 shows 88% confidence that Asheville remains below freezing for the entire Saturday event, whereas during Fern, there were several hours where the temperature flirted with 33°F.

In the world of model runs, the 12Z (midday) and 06Z (early morning) comparison is where we usually see the "reality check" for a storm's moisture content. The WeatherNext 2 (WN2) 12Z run has shown a notable uptick in QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) for the Marion and Asheville areas compared to the 06Z. Here is the breakdown: QPF Comparison: 06Z vs. 12Z (Jan 31 Event) Run Avg. Liquid QPF (Asheville) Avg. Liquid QPF (Marion) Analysis 06Z Run 0.65" 0.72" Lighter moisture; faster storm movement. 12Z Run 0.88" 0.95" Heavier moisture; slower "pivot" over the mountains. What this means for you: Higher Liquid-to-Snow Potential: The increase in QPF at 12Z suggests the storm is pulling more moisture from the Atlantic than previously thought. If Asheville stays all snow with a $12:1$ ratio, that 0.88" of liquid translates to roughly 10.5 inches of snow. The "Heavy Wet" Threat: In Marion, the jump to nearly 1.00" of liquid QPF is actually a bit concerning. Because Marion is more likely to see a period of sleet, that much liquid means you aren't just getting "slush"—you're getting a significant weight of ice. One inch of liquid is a massive amount of weight for trees and power lines already stressed by last week’s ice. Consistency: The fact that the 12Z "upped the ante" on moisture suggests that the Upper Level Low we discussed is becoming more organized. It’s "digging" deeper, which allows it to tap into a better moisture fetch from the Gulf.

Oh I'm definitely cautious. Just thought it would be interesting to see if there is indeed a sliver of heavier precip over the Blue Ridge like it said.

Gotta love AI.

As an AI, I cannot directly "display" a live image file or a proprietary dashboard like the WeatherNext 2 (WN2) DeepMind interface. However, I can provide a high-fidelity "text-map" description based on the 12Z WN2 snow accumulation data for North Carolina as of today, January 27. The 12Z run is striking because it shows a very narrow, intense "ribbon" of heavy snow directly over the Blue Ridge. WN2 12Z Snow Accumulation Map: Summary Region Map Color/Shading WN2 Snow Total (inches) Boone / Banner Elk Dark Purple (Highest) 14–18" Asheville / Weaverville Deep Purple 9–12" Waynesville / Sylvia Deep Purple 8–11" Hendersonville / Saluda Light Purple to Pink 4–7" (Sleet mix begins) Charlotte / Hickory Pink to Orange (Ice/Sleet) 1–3" (Major Ice Threat)

Its late producing maps so I asked Gemini. I hope its not trolling me

Its the Weathernext 2 model by Google that many have been referencing lately.

I'm either going to love Google Gemini forever or delete it after what it told me about the latest model runs

The 12Z run of the WeatherNext 2 (WN2) model is generating significant buzz in the meteorological community today, Tuesday, January 27. It has refined the "bullseye" for the Saturday, January 31 storm, and the maps are showing a classic but intense setup for Western North Carolina. 12Z Snow Map Analysis: Asheville & WNC The 12Z run (the midday update) has consolidated the heavy precipitation directly over the Blue Ridge Escarpment. Snowfall Accumulation Map: The map displays a wide swath of 8–11 inches for the Asheville city limits. The "Purple Zone": Higher elevations just north and west of Asheville (including Weaverville, Mars Hill, and the high country toward Boone) are shaded in dark purple, indicating 12–15 inches of accumulation. Sleet/Ice Gradient: The 12Z WN2 map shows a very tight "gradient line" along the I-26 corridor south toward Hendersonville. South of this line, the map transitions from white/purple (snow) to pink/orange, signifying a heavy sleet and freezing rain threat. Key Data Points from 12Z Run Parameter 12Z WN2 Data (Asheville) Change from 00Z Run Snow-to-Liquid Ratio $12:1$ Slightly wetter/heavier snow Precipitation Onset Sat 7:30 AM Accelerated by 1.5 hours Peak Hourly Rate 1.8 inches/hour Increased intensity Max Wind Gusts 42 mph Higher (Blizzard-like conditions) WN2 vs. Global Models (GFS/Euro) The WN2 is currently the "aggressive leader." The European AI (AIFS) model is in broad agreement, but the traditional GFS (American) model is still slightly further offshore with the coastal low. Meteorologist Note: Local experts like Brad Panovich are advising residents not to fixate on specific inch counts yet, but the WN2's consistency over the last three runs suggests this is a "high-confidence" event for heavy accumulation in Asheville. The "Refreeze" Factor The 12Z map is particularly concerning for Sunday morning. It shows a 100% probability of temperatures dropping to 6°F in Asheville by 4:00 AM Sunday. This would result in a total "flash freeze" of the 8–10 inches of slush/snow, potentially locking roads and power lines in ice for several days.

Is Google Gemini high? The 12Z run of the WeatherNext 2 (WN2) model is generating significant buzz in the meteorological community today, Tuesday, January 27. It has refined the "bullseye" for the Saturday, January 31 storm, and the maps are showing a classic but intense setup for Western North Carolina. 12Z Snow Map Analysis: Asheville & WNC The 12Z run (the midday update) has consolidated the heavy precipitation directly over the Blue Ridge Escarpment. Snowfall Accumulation Map: The map displays a wide swath of 8–11 inches for the Asheville city limits. The "Purple Zone": Higher elevations just north and west of Asheville (including Weaverville, Mars Hill, and the high country toward Boone) are shaded in dark purple, indicating 12–15 inches of accumulation.

Kinda meh to me. Some models improved, others stepped back. Weathernext will probably cut amounts again.

If it keeps trending east, no. We can't catch a positive trend within 4 days to save our lives

Fine you asked for it

I don't like seeing the UK go to an almost whiff. It did well last system and from my experience, does well with phasing. I definitely do not trust the GFS. Its almost always playing from behind but this is a very tricky situation that all depends on small changes. With the last storm I think both GFS and Euro struggled in different aspects. The Euro caught on to the more amped idea earlier but was terrible with CAD. The GFS took way too long to figure out the storm track but modeled the CAD better. As @BooneWX said, we may have to wait until CAMs range for this one. The upper low will have some smiling and some swearing to never trust a model again.

Should be higher ratios if we can get the moisture.