Its almost like the Baja low is a big old glass of sweet tea stuck to grandma's dining room table and the confluence is sucking out the sweet goodness and pulling it across the SE instead of grabbing it
I will add to pay attention to the NAM within 48 hours of the storm. It does amazingly well in CAD setups with warm noses. Its burned many of us before
I would rather it stay a bit south and not get the Baja low as involved. The SE Ridge can be a real beyatch...
I still think most of NC mixes at some point, even N of 85. Va mostly snow.