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wncsnow

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Everything posted by wncsnow

  1. wncsnow
    18Z euro only goes to 144. There was more coming.
  2. wncsnow
  3. wncsnow
    These could be my famous last words but I just don't see how we miss this one. Its either a huge snow, snow then sleet and ice, or sleet and ice of epic proportions. Its still 5 days out but the windows are narrowing
  4. wncsnow
    O/U on sleep hours per night this week set at 6
  5. wncsnow
    Great trends on the Euro. Baja low trended west. Cold HP trended stronger.
  6. wncsnow
    I think we will get more sleet than ZR in this type of setup. Asheville could turn to ZR quicker than east of the escarpment, but this is a strong high. Places west of Asheville have the trickiest forecast if it turns into a Miller A/B hybrid of Miller B.
  7. wncsnow
    The UK makes sense climatologically
  8. wncsnow
    Canadian is gonna be more amped
  9. wncsnow
    GFS is a big hit
  10. wncsnow
    The start is less than 5 days away which is kind of crazy
  11. wncsnow
    IF the high is anywhere close as strong as being modeled, it should continue to shift south slightly.
  12. wncsnow
    It does look like a Miller A/B hybrid, which we have done well with recently in western NC. Jan 2022, Jan 30, 2010, and December 2002 were somewhat similar setups. https://climate.ncsu.edu/blog/2015/12/nc-extremes-an-ice-storm-for-the-ages/
  13. wncsnow
    My opinion- this storm is looking like like your classic old school CAD overrunning that we haven't seen in a long time. 3-5 inches of snow, and inch or 2 of sleet and .25 of ice that turns into an iceberg for days. Thats just what it looks like right now for us foothills folks. More snow the further NE you go, more ice toward SC.
  14. wncsnow
    16 here this morning. Ground will be cold for anything frozen that falls.
  15. wncsnow
    Ice storm looks like the likely outcome looking at the AI models. We need that high to trend stronger and quicker.
  16. wncsnow
    And it's quicker coming in Friday night/Saturday am. Only 5 and a half days out...
  17. wncsnow
    Ouch
  18. wncsnow
    Almost exactly like the AIFS...
  19. wncsnow
    Euro is later with cold push and quicker with precip. Massive ice/sleet storm for most
  20. wncsnow
    Euro AI also shows more of a cutter but strong CAD so lots of ice.. some of the models have trended towards dumping more cold in the west/midwest. That would not be ideal
  21. wncsnow
    UK shows how it can go wrong. Little bit of SE Ridge and less blocking turns into cold rain and tears
  22. wncsnow
    Canadian is a major winter storm too.
  23. wncsnow
    Will it be 1 or 2 waves? Lots to be resolved
  24. wncsnow
    I'm going to take a bit of a different approach to next weekend. I'm going to (try) not to get too high or low on each model runs and rely on ensembles until we get to Wednesday or so. We just need to keep the signal until about then and mix in some big OP runs.
  25. wncsnow
    A big ice storm is very possible, maybe even likely for someone in the CAD area. Major questions still are- 1. Low pressure track 2. Strength of High pressure, depth of cold air. 3. Blocking. Need it to stop it from amplifying too much and giving us a rainstorm.
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