wncsnow
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Everything posted by wncsnow
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It pulled the Baja low so it went north and now looks more like the Euro and AI models
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It wasn't that bad of a run honestly. Well within the possible range of outcomes.
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ICON might be bringing wave 2 right behind
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ICON is more amped for sure. More like Euro AI. Miller A/B hybrid
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Long range has other threats too. Hard to think about with this one 4-5 days out but the next month looks fascinating
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I would say so. Probably somewhat dependent on how far up the coast it goes.
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We just need consistency without major changes and we are in a really good spot. Arguably the best spot right now. We are far northeast enough to take full advantage of CAD and can do well in miller A/B hybrid, and far south enough to avoid missing out completely on some slightly suppressed looks
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18Z euro only goes to 144. There was more coming.
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These could be my famous last words but I just don't see how we miss this one. Its either a huge snow, snow then sleet and ice, or sleet and ice of epic proportions. Its still 5 days out but the windows are narrowing
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O/U on sleep hours per night this week set at 6
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Great trends on the Euro. Baja low trended west. Cold HP trended stronger.
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I think we will get more sleet than ZR in this type of setup. Asheville could turn to ZR quicker than east of the escarpment, but this is a strong high. Places west of Asheville have the trickiest forecast if it turns into a Miller A/B hybrid of Miller B.
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The UK makes sense climatologically
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Canadian is gonna be more amped
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GFS is a big hit
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The start is less than 5 days away which is kind of crazy
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IF the high is anywhere close as strong as being modeled, it should continue to shift south slightly.
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It does look like a Miller A/B hybrid, which we have done well with recently in western NC. Jan 2022, Jan 30, 2010, and December 2002 were somewhat similar setups. https://climate.ncsu.edu/blog/2015/12/nc-extremes-an-ice-storm-for-the-ages/
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My opinion- this storm is looking like like your classic old school CAD overrunning that we haven't seen in a long time. 3-5 inches of snow, and inch or 2 of sleet and .25 of ice that turns into an iceberg for days. Thats just what it looks like right now for us foothills folks. More snow the further NE you go, more ice toward SC.
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16 here this morning. Ground will be cold for anything frozen that falls.
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Ice storm looks like the likely outcome looking at the AI models. We need that high to trend stronger and quicker.
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And it's quicker coming in Friday night/Saturday am. Only 5 and a half days out...
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Ouch
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Almost exactly like the AIFS...
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