wncsnow

With the big trough digging in the midwest, it's going to get super wet and its not exactly dry currently. I can see some flooding issues coming soon.

The way the long range keeps moving to warm, this could be the areas biggest snow of the season.

Yeah decent shower for downslopeland

Still just flurries in west Asheville. Can't get any decent rates.

The EPS is still way colder than the GFS and not far off. Your post is misleading.

Nice snow shower just moved through west Asheville. Not sticking though

Pretty lackluster so far but there is about 18 hours left of the best forcing.

1.34 yesterday. Looks to be another system or 2 then maybe dry out some?

Just need the temperatures to drop in Asheville. It's still almost 40 so I don't think there will be any accumulation until tonight here which is probably going to be the best rates anyways

Light rain and snow mix in Swannanoa

Boyer going with .1 in downtown Asheville and conservative overall

Storms moved in quicker than models progged by a few hours.

Close..

Not everyday you have a severe thunderstorm warning on top of a winter storm warning

GFS is showing some snow squalls in eastern NC Friday night.

That squall line has my attention. It looks to strengthen as it moves through our area. Wind damage possible for sure. I saw a massive boar black bear roaming the shoulder on 240 today not far from the mall in Asheville. Had to be 350-400 pounds.

The big snowstorm for the western carolinas was on the 16th

The lakes not being totally frozen helps the fetch coming in too. Smokies may be the jackpot area with the orientation of the flow. Hopefully west Asheville will get some good squalls while I'm at work Friday.

It's a good run of the EPS and with could lead to some overrunning threats with the position of the trough.

You can see the ridge forming late in the period on the Op Euro.

Think that was the perfect example of what blocking can do when all the chess pieces are in the perfect spots.

This is a good article on it with some meteorological background. Seems like the NAO was deeply negative. https://climate.ncsu.edu/blog/2016/03/hump-day-javu-the-three-wednesday-snows-of-march-1960/

The 1960 winter is what all my grandparents talked about when they were here and aunts and uncles talk about still to this day. Snow drifts 8 to 10 feet high. Roads impassable for weeks to months. It's the standard for WNC and it all fell within 5 or 6 weeks pretty much in February and March. There were a few big (18 inch type) storms, but mostly 8-12 inch type storms repeating every 5 to 10 days (3 Wednesdays in a row at one point). I think 4 or 5 were gulf lows and there were lots of clippers and NWFS too. I think Boone had 6 feet or more in 6 weeks. Some pictures here https://www.citizen-times.com/picture-gallery/life/2019/12/16/historic-photos-1960-snowstorm-asheville-and-western-north-carolina/2665218001/

Some interesting winters there. 1960 was the snowiest stretch in modern history for WNC where it basically snowed every week for a month or more and the national guard had to get called in to save mountain folks. 27 inches of snow fell at the Asheville airport in the month of March alone (much more in the mountains). 2013 was one of the least snowy winters here the last 20 years with just a trace of snow and 1/2 of sleet and 1/10 freezing rain the only measurable winter precip imby and if I recall most of NC and SC saw below average snowfall that winter. Not sure about the other winters but thats a big range of options already.

While that's true, the ridge will hopefully continue moving east past the 20th and setup in a better spot.