Superstorm93

1 minute ago, Hotair said:

An eye could be forming ? 4:25 recon 

Look at IR. Just a bunch of warm convection sloshing around. We will likely have to wait until after sunset to get something going near the center. 

This one has certainly been an interesting case to show how delicate some of these weak systems can be to sneaky dry air and stability. 

10 minutes ago, Normandy said:

^That's a good thread right there thanks for sharing.  Perhaps the multiple vorticies yesterday brought the dry air in?

That's certainly possible. Also, I believe most thought that Ian would be a more "closed" system (literally and figuratively) by now, so some dry air/subsidence makes sense at the moment. 

Could change in a hurry if we see deep convection pop over that center. 

I like this hypothesis 

Early models are focused in the Panhandle once again 

I'm actually quite surprised how awful Ian looks this morning. 

Really has a good amount of work to do before it can intensify at anything more than a gradual rate. 

The only thing limiting the storm right now is the lack of an organized surface circulation. 

10 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Quite weak

That's the old low-res map. 

8 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

After clipping western Cuba:                         The HMON is farther west and weaker after visiting the Yucatan area.

 

Hate to be that guy, but the 18z has been out. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=98L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2022092218&fh=126 

I've seen enough. 

PTC 

Could make a solid argument for a PTC at this point. 

It's too close. 

Even better view 

Here ya go, ya freaks. 

I mean, this looks pretty damn closed just based on derived motion winds 

3 minutes ago, Amped said:

Yeah just keeping fingers crossed the 18Z Euro and Icon are wrong about the intensity.    They had some issues with Harvey in 2017 and Delta in 2020.  Both those storms took off pretty fast.

Radar out of Curaçao 

We're gonna be east of FL by the 6z runs if this continues 

11 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

12Z UKMET crosses western Cuba and enters the eastern GOM heading north and then takes the turn NE heading toward the FL coast well north of Tampa at hour 168 as a "meh" tropical storm.

 

UKMET has been strangely conservative in the tropics over the last year or so. Not sure if they changed something with the model...

Well, the COAMPS getting nuts again. Ironically, this is the only model that captured the current structure of the storm as it emerged from Venezuela

New run on the left 

Pretty good shift on the 12z EPS 

I may have to eat some crow here. 

The circulation with 98L actually looks like it's tightening up. 

7 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

The closest thing to an LLC I see will hit Trinidad, if not Venezuela, and there are dry air arc clouds.  It may be a monster in a week, but it doesn't look like 70% 2 day odds to me.

Too late for them to lower odd, but I absolutely agree. Best shot for significant development will be if/when this gets past Jamaica. 

Everything else is basically conjecture at this point. 

GFS still correcting weaker on the 12z so far. We're a few ticks away from burying this in Central America 

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I am wondering if interaction with S America may slow down 98L more than the 2-3 days likely development of the TWOAT.

That's honestly what I'm betting on at this point. I think continued development over the next 72 hours remains slow.