Superstorm93

I'm really interested as to whether or not tomorrow pans out or not.

NAM is looking a bit funky with slowing down the MCS.

With the NAM and GFS looking so intense, I'm starting to wonder if we have enough to warrant a possible Day 2 High risk. I know the outlooks are trivial and the only things that matter are the reports, but it would still be interesting to see. Any thoughts?

We would be around the same area as it occurred last time way back in 2006:

Once again that pocket of 5% is back over my regional municipality

Supercell Probs for 48 hours

Wow...

For the short time I have been using the SREF, I have never seen STI this high for so long.

From tomorrow morning until Wednesday, there is a "50" for the exception of one frame.

Check this out:

SREF is looking pretty intense.

Day 2 MDT

The fact that there have already been 12 tornado emergencies speaks for itself.

2010 as a whole had 12.

2008 had 11.

As of now, this could be a pretty dangerous outbreak. People need to be on top of this.

Hopefully the 00z runs don't diverge too greatly in their outcomes so that the SPC can delineate some sort of 4-8 outlook area.

Bastardi is also onboard for a significant outbreak.

April, April and May Tornado totals likely to be Exceeded

By Joe Bastardi Posted in Blog Home Page | No Comments »While the next 5 days sees another moderate outbreak of severe weather this weekend ( and the snow again on the northern side) its next week another lawyers, guns and money outbreak takes place. We are liable to see another 100 to 200 tornadoes before the month is out, making it the most active April ever. My reasoning for this is based on the major, and progressive, trough that swings into the plains early next week, and is leading a major crushing of the eastern ridge that will then take us into a May much like 2008 temp and precip wise.

First the 168 hour ensemble shows the major trough in the plains, with the severe weather breaking out on the western high plains Sunday and spreading east after that ( it should be centered in the Miss valley by Tuesday)

Thank you! Enjoying the forums so far! This year is very similar to 2003. Locked in pattern of frequent storms and strong jet stream. Was 2003 a strong La Nina year?

April 19th, 2003