Superstorm93

This is a perfect example of what I'd want to wash away the

Just a steady rate with almost 3" on the day

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMAHOPKI38 

Bigly MDT 

Sneaky destabilization over CT? 

Not sure why the 6z HREF is so cracked out...

https://emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/hrefv3/06_exp/main_conus.php 

6 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

UKIE is  6 to 10 plus for most of southern CT woah.. someone is going to get some serious flooding looking at the 0z models qpf getting beefed up

From Stein to submerged 

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Looks like recon is having communication issues.

Data is starting to backfill now. Center has reformed under the deep convection. 

Early is looking increasingly likely to become a strong hurricane over the next several days. Should help rack up some ACE as it heads OTS. 

We take. Still dumping on the North Shore 

5 minutes ago, shaggy said:

In all honesty we need a quiet season after the last several years.

I'd love to break some records on the quiet side for once. It's been an exhausting six years. 

1 hour ago, Rhino16 said:

If it were to stay a sheared mess for a longer period, does that make it less likely to recurve out to sea?

I'd be inclined to say that this has a low risk of impacting the CONUS over the next week or so. 

Significant development of this wave has become increasingly unlikely over the past few runs. 

Another interesting development

We could be tracking sheared trash into September

Best case for this one is very slow development over the next five days. Environment north of the Greater Antilles looks pretty favorable, if it survives. 

ASCAT pass was certainly more impressive than I would have guessed. Not too far from becoming a depression, but dry air may prolong this process for at least 48 hours. 

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

Almost an Inch and a quarter.

Congrats! 

Glad to see a decent drink moving in for some folks. 

Nothin too severe, but we'll take that 

Certainly looks interesting, but this thing has a pretty long journey ahead of it to become a TC. Basically a monsoon depression at this point and an earlier ASCAT did not reveal any signs of a coherent LLC. 

I'm pretty confident we make it out of August without a single NS. Pretty remarkable and I'll certainly take it after the last 6 years of insanity. 

18z HRRR delivers the goods for tomorrow

Nothing screams "flipping the switch" like a TUTT on roids and dry air from the subtropics getting injected into the MDR. 

Just a bit off...

* At 457 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 0.5 to 1.5 inches in 1 hour. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There is a 6z HREF?

https://emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/hrefv3/