Superstorm93

Keep an eye on this wave in the CATL. Could really get interesting as the week goes on. 

Pretty hard WNW wobble over the last few hours. Recon fixes should be rather interesting. 

Recon taking off soon. Won't be able to get the entire RMW, but should be able to hit the center 

Might be breaking some records here soon. 

COAMPS still shows this absolutely exploding once it gets more of a favorable jet interaction 

Have to agree that is indeed a hot tower 

Area near the radar looks to be having power issues. 

Expect intermittent outages. 

Be careful with the fish stuff. 

We have plenty of folks in the USVI that this may impact. 

The ECMWF solution is possible IF the storm remains weak, IF it interacts with Hispaniola enough to slow it down, and IF the ridge can build back overhead in time. 

Three-way parlay anyone? 

6z HAFS seems to be nailing the current structure 

17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

If I had a dime for every time he's brought up that storm in the last 12 years, I'd be able to retire. 

30 minutes ago, Chinook said:

For what it's worth, Reed Timmer has been streaming about Fiona for the last 24 minutes. I wonder what happened to Tropical Tidbits videos?

Levi works at the JTWC now. I think he said he'll have a video out later this afternoon. 

Yikes, HAFS (which will eventually take over for the HWRF) tilts the circulation to all hell. 

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think this has a 50/50 shot at dissipation. It does have peak climo and very warm water though.


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Might be hard for it to completely dissipate since this looks like a pretty large circulation now. Should struggle for at least another 48 - 72 hours. 

Still think this struggles on the way to the islands. 

Pretty hefty amount of dry air entrained on the left side of the circulation now. 

Morning sat loops of invests always stoke the weenies. 

I think the best shot for this to become anything more than a marginal TC is for it to actually tighten up before the islands so that it can skirt to the north of Hispaniola. Still will likely have to fight shear along the way unless it's able to generate enough convection for an ULAC to build. Otherwise, I believe this is going to be another wave that never really gets together before getting torn apart by the Greater Antilles.

2022 really is just a different season. 

So close yet so far 

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

A cool 957% of normal over the last week lol 

Say we do this whole flooding thing again in...a week?

22 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Does this resolve a lot of the SNE drought as in erases most/all of it? I know it was feast or famine in spots, but just curious, cause we're still 6-7" BN.

Departures YTD will still exist, but the actual drought impacts will surely be (somewhat) mitigated. 

Juicy.