It's a weak trough off the west coast in a split flow. It's barely registering as a -pna since the main PNA region in nwt/Yukon. Theres nothing in the 300dm range either.
I thought weeklies looked okay, but the signal overall was pretty weak outside of the normal two week ensemble period. Lots of whites on the maps, not much oranges or blues. Nothing really to be discouraged about or super excited about.
Ben Noll made some euro posts on October 5th last month. Weather.us has the monthly data on the 11th. Ukmet is also on the 11th. Nmme comes out on the 8th.
This is another paper about NAO prediction.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-00353-y
Most important factors they found were fall Barents/Kara Sea Ice, fall wave 1 stratospheric disturbances and fall north Atlantic SST configuration.
I'm not sure a negative PDO here means as much as it normally would. It's a bit of a "fake" -pdo in the sense that there's really warm water in the Gulf of AK all the way south into the PAC NW. That SST arrangement along with a CP El Nino should be associated with a +PNA pattern predominantly through winter. Usually it would be cold there in a more typical -PDO. The value of the index is lowered significantly because of the warm water off japan.
Sure, I'm just saying there's nothing in the data set that's been this low in JAS that jumped into moderate from here. Anything can happen and I'm certainly not a Nino expert.
Feb looks a ton better than the previous run but as a whole it the anomalies are similar.
I think the general look is a bit weird after December. The PAC slp and 500mb anomalies dont look particularly nino like even though the SST and convection is there.
Right it's not as central/west as 09/10 but it's definitely more centered in 3.4/4 as opposed to 3/1.2. It's technically not a modoki because Nino 1.2 isn't below normal I think?
I noted that the CP Nino events had more AK/Western Canada ridging as the north PAC low is further west. This would help out the northeast for storm threats, I believe. The "fake" -NAO in EP Nino with Canada baking from PAC flow doesn't really help things.