OSUmetstud

UKMET hooks into Long Island and is near Newburg at 72 h. 

Just now, MVOyster said:

That dark blue is the Labrador Current coming up against the edge of the Great South Channel … an upwelling, pretty much constant 52deg F … hence the fog

(glad I could finally contribute)

Thanks. I didn't realize that it was that cold there at the moment. The upwelling part makes sense. It doesn't show up very well on the broader SST charts. 

Just now, Diggiebot said:

I think it’s cold water draining down from the gulf of Maine plus the mainland deflects the Gulf Stream out to sea 

Yeah i know that spot is generally cold, but 11C? The Grand Banks is 16 right now lol. 

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Reposted

What's with the dark blue east of Cape Cod and Nantucket? Doesn't seem realistic to me? 

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Gaining latitude, the cone will tighten in the New England region is the idea I think.  Both correct.

Yeah I guess I was just saying that it's independent. It's based on average track error at the lead time. it's not model spread or confidence dependent. 

Definitely has a good chance to take off tomorrow, but the shear has titled the vortex and the outflow is restricted to the north for now. Objective guidance has been running around T3.5, which supports strong TS, not hurricane. 

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The cone will be broad and the next 24-36 it will tighten.

Cone is always the same size at the various lead times. 

I believe SSD is done at least somewhat manually while Wisconsin is computer generated. 

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

NHC operations -related question:

do they still employ DIVORAC techniques?   

I don't hear them referencing that as much - if ever as of late - in their updates wrt to specific entities.   More over, I don't see DIVORAC products as easily/readily as years ago not that think about it.  Maybe some newer tech has supplanted that method ?

I just used to noticed primitive eyes showing up earlier/clearer in DIV.

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt08L.html

Yeah, it's near a t4.0 65 knots (minimal hurricane) 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That makes sense.

Thanks.

Yes thanks. I actually ment WAR to the east but the general idea is there...

So it looks like to me that a stronger storm initially through the next day or so pushes the storm southwest (shear vector is out of the northeast). The after, a stronger storm should help build the WAR to the west of it. If you have a weak pos those two things don't happen. 

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

The structure, although still tilted, is clearly closer to the other globals right now than the euro. Toss all the future NE implications aside, this structure makes it less likely to be completely gutted by shear in the next 24-48 hours before it reaches a more favorable environment.

 

Yeah euro is borderline tossable. It's basically not showing a TC. 

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Global models seldom resolve the intensity of tropical systems accurately- deal with that.

It's almost an open wave the whole time though lol. That's something else entirely. 

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I needs ( Euro ) to initialize the system deeper - deal with it.

At initialization it's fine I think but given it doesn't spin up into much the whole run you might not put as much weight on it as normal. Intensity matters to track here I think. 

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082021 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 18.08.2021 0 29.9N 66.1W 1004 40 0000UTC 19.08.2021 12 29.7N 68.4W 999 51 1200UTC 19.08.2021 24 29.5N 70.6W 987 61 0000UTC 20.08.2021 36 29.5N 72.5W 983 63 1200UTC 20.08.2021 48 30.0N 73.9W 981 65 0000UTC 21.08.2021 60 31.3N 74.3W 976 68 1200UTC 21.08.2021 72 33.7N 73.2W 961 85 0000UTC 22.08.2021 84 37.4N 71.3W 960 81 1200UTC 22.08.2021 96 41.1N 70.2W 962 79 0000UTC 23.08.2021 108 42.4N 69.9W 986 46 1200UTC 23.08.2021 120 43.0N 68.0W 996 35 0000UTC 24.08.2021 132 43.4N 65.5W 1003 27 1200UTC 24.08.2021 144 44.2N 62.5W 1005 25

Doesn't copy well but this is the last UKMET TC guidance. I think it goes over the cape as it weakens? 

The loop thing seems actually more supported in some respect. Henri gets absorbed into that weak MA trough and just sits underneath the eastern Canadian ridge. There's not much push for a proper landfall. 

I meant to post this here lol. 

Eric seems pretty convinced. Idk. The pattern is not crazy anomalous and the storm is so far east initially. 

Eric seems pretty convinced. Idk. The pattern is not crazy anomalous and the storm is so far east initially. 

Just now, correnjim1 said:

that's your opinion....people have the right to not give a sh!t what you think or feel

You seem like a really nice person dude. 

Just now, correnjim1 said:

stop being so sensitive

I think some empathy is in order given the awful circumstances. 

2 minutes ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

That’s where you and I disagree. Your job is to get rid of the personal insults and blatant trolling. Your job is NOT to moderate others opinions. You can as part of your perceived responsibility to challenge someone. If somebody post that vaccines cause dementia, by all means ask them to show the data where that’s a possibility (they can’t by the way) but to censure that is wrong, IMO. 
But by all means get rid of the insults.

blatant trolling? Delete half the tread then. Good lord lol. PhineasC has double the post of anyone here and does that all the time. 

it seems that some accept only the "right kind" of trolling. 

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lmao, gross, lmao. Free ideas and expressions are gross, lmao 

Calling vaccines poison is gross. 

Trolling over hospitalizations and deaths in the middle of a terrible pandemic that has killed 750000 Americans is gross. 

Free speech (which is not really relevant on a private forum) is often gross. 

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I enjoy our crew and the links. When the stupid hive shows up then it turns to shit. That weird lady and her cohorts should stay in their protected bubbles 

Its incredible to me that you would read this thread with all its toxic trolling about hospitals filling up and anti vax rhetoric from your bros and think that people who just showed up the past few days are a problem. This place is gross and has been for awhile. 

3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

I would think it with n95 it would be higher then 23% and with those flimsy cloth masks practically non-existent.

This was a community mask study. They were all flimsy cloth masks. I think there should have been more of an effort to get n95s to essential workers but alas. 

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Purely observational, was it a combo of masking and hygiene theater that seemed to completely nip any sickness at all out last winter?  Many people seemed to have their healthiest winter ever… not even a minor sniffle.  I just know that from ski areas being absolute cesspools of sicknesses in winter (basically thousands of people a day with runny noses spraying droplets everywhere) from rental shops to ski school classes to lodges…. literally seemed no one got sick at all from anything.

Or maybe it’s as simple as high self awareness that if you don’t feel right you stayed home when in the past you’d still go out for your ski day or work day?  Combo of all of the factors working together?

I see the studies on masking but I just can’t deny how little sickness there was last winter or any kind at all.

I think the best done mask study in terms of RCT on a population level was the Danish one imo. There was a 23% risk reduction... unfortunately they powered the study before hand to find statistical significant at 50%. 

The biological plausibility is all there on an individual level. Maybe it gets more washed out when people don't wear them properly and touch them too much.