OSUmetstud

Just now, dendrite said:

It was all hypothetical anyway. Mike’s talking about never getting sick and avoiding viruses completely. Obviously with what we’ve been doing for the past year with masks isn’t enough to completely stop transmission. 

yeah for sure. I was kinda pushing against the idea our immune systems can't work or something because of masks and/or distancing. 

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Do you think most experts really respect the average persons ability to Do what they are told if given a honest appraisal . In any setting or industry? People are generally morons .

Peoples opinions are easily shaped and molded and this has been near perfected over time .
 

Public  Messages for almost anything are designed to change behavior to that which is desired and to create less resistance . Experts believe they no better and that they are protecting the public and the greater good . They aren’t going to let the public’s stupidity get of interpreting a less dramatic and truthful message lead to a weaker result when it comes to desired changes , opinions etc

From what I can find in a google search (and I don't remember) the only articles specifically mentioning "2 weeks to flatten the curve" where from Trump and the Surgeon General. I remember others suggesting that this was going to be more of a slog than that. The second idea always kinda seemed more realistic to me. 

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

i think a little sickness is a good thing. we need to be able to live with these viruses and build some immunity against them...kinda evolve together. there's a reason why the native americans were hit hard when the europeans came over. maybe the future is eliminating most viruses and updating your body's vaccine software every fall, but until then the occasional test for your immune system isn't a bad thing.

it's like the people who bathe in antibacterial everything. bacteria doesn't have to be a bad thing. we need good bacteria to thrive.

We already do this though. There's still plenty of other viruses and bacteria that we are exposed to and live with on a regular basis. You'd literally have to live in a bubble to not develop proper immunity from exposure. 

6 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

And world peace haha

Lol. If we were talking about that year or two then sure. I was making a general point about death rate improvements which is far more tied to sanitation and public health. 

5 hours ago, nwohweather said:

1918 & 1919 had some wild fatality numbers with both a brutal pandemic and major war. Combine that with all the other diseases of the time, not great.

Yeah. Toilets, antibiotics, and vaccines are really something. 

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

US “excess deaths” in 2020 surpassed the toll during the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2021/04/24/pand-a24.html

The background annual fatality rate back then was about triple what it is today, hence why covid ends up as such an anomaly.  

1 hour ago, mississaugasnow said:

11cm or just a bit over 4". I live in Caledonia about 15km south of downtown Hamilton and have elevation to help. A meteorologist from Ancaster about 10km from me reported the same amount so safe to say most of Hamilton Mountain saw around 4" 

Watching things last night I think the Niagara Peninsula would have gotten the most. Any report a bit east of you on the escarpment? 

I threw about 2-3" in Windsor and 4 to 5" for the Niagara Peninsula on our storm report. 

10 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

With roughly twice as many total (confirmed) covid cases for covid, you’re more likely to be hospitalized but half as likely to die? Seems less dangerous than the flu to me?

In the aggregate if it hospitalized 5 times more kids than flu in a given year it's more dangerous imo at least. 

I thought this was kinda interesting. I know there is extreme age-stratified risk on Covid, but some of the "less dangerous than flu for kids" thing is way overstated. In terms of hospitalizations, it looks like COVID blows seasonal flu out of the water.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2016-2017.html

There was about 34K hospitalization under 17 along with 251 deaths

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html

There was about 137k hospitalizations under 17 as of the end of December. There's been 258 deaths confirmed so far. 

Just now, schoeppeya said:

Man I JUST posted something that took me a while to dig for and find numbers... this would have been a lot easier lol. At least they match up.

Lol yeah. They do an estimate for age groups. 65+ is about 20 percent. 

3 hours ago, schoeppeya said:

That is the number I saw, it was a quick search. Agreed it’s not the best number to use. 
 

Any clue what the overall actually is for confirmed cases?

This is the estimate for all infections. 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html

4.1 million for 83 million infected. Approximately 2 percent. 

19 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Antibodies don't just disappear do they? A year from now those vaccinated will likely have partial immunity and still be able to avoid severe illness? 

Theres b cells and t cells that are tough to test for. We dont have lots of antibodies just circulating in our blood on the reg. 

My uneducated opinion but given that sars cov 2 has a proof reading mechanism and that it only goes antigenic drift and not shift unlike flu I think its really unlikely we'd need a vaccine every year. Good to prepare logistical for those possibilities though. 

5 minutes ago, Powerball said:

All we know is the CDC has said:

1. Herd immunity will be achieved when a percentage of the *TOTAL* population is fully vaccinated.

2. That percentage is still known.

Anything beyond what the CDC has said is conjecture not based on any scientific evidence about this virus.

We shouldn't ignore those who have been infected and there's a fairly wide range of estimates on that

People are not acting normally across the US. Mobility is down and people are taking precautions. There is no hard line between when herd immunity is achieved and herd immunity isn't achieved.

Young kids potentially being less susceptible to infection and less productive spreaders and non homogeneous population mixing may lower the herd immunity threshold a bit from a simple Ro calculation. 

2 minutes ago, Powerball said:

I'll stick to the measure scientists at the CDC and FDA are using to evaluate when herd immunity is achieved.

Do you think an alarm bell goes off when herd immunity is reached?

1 minute ago, fujiwara79 said:

suicides and drug abuse were going up for years before the pandemic.  extreme wealth inequality and social media are the leading causes.

There was a 19% increase in accidental death due mainly due to overdose last year. The increase was far higher than the background trend. 

We can argue why those happened. But mental health has gotten considerably worse during the pandemic. Maybe it's the fear of the virus...maybe it's the negative media...maybe it's the lockdowns. But either way the other ways people suffer during this thing can't be cast aside. 

3 minutes ago, fujiwara79 said:

just wait until the cruise lines require vaccinations.  the anti-vaxxers are going to be in quite a conundrum.  they love those cheap $500 all-you-can-eat carribean cruises.

Isn't this already a thing?

Just now, nwohweather said:

Because it’s a 1 in 1 million chance of getting blood clots while we still have hundreds dying of this pandemic daily

I get it. It's frustrating. There's 2 other vaccines with ample supply that are currently used. Theyre upholding their commitment to safety. You and I both know there's almost no appetite for poor vaccine outcomes in the US. I hope they look for a few day make recommendations and get back to business.

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It's pretty bad. My instagram and facebook pages are on fire with online protests on requiring a vaccine for bills game lol. I think I'm going to stay out of those, people are mad.

I guess we'll see who the real bills fans are. 

3 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

He came on NBC News tonight with Lester Holt and said he supports this decision 100% and that we need to investigate before anymore doses of this vaccine are administered

Okay. So he supports the other government agencies that made the decision. Why is this a problem? It's exactly how the system is supposed to work. This is why they are constantly monitoring. 

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

I think it eventually gets changed to negative test/vaccine. The uprising has been insane today. I'd say about 50% of my friends are not getting the vaccine and are pretty adamant on it. I do respect their individual freedom. I can see both sides to this.

You live in hamburg. I'm not terribly surprised lol. 

Just now, Powerball said:

 

Nor the CDC, lol...

Indeed

2 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Need to fire Fauci folks. This cancellation of the Johnson and Johnson shot is the last straw. Pure fear game with that guy

Fauci is not part of the fda lol. 

2 minutes ago, Powerball said:

To be clear, my stance is a moral one.

Unfortunately, I'm well aware it's legally and politically impalpable.

Definitely fair.