OSUmetstud
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Posts posted by OSUmetstud
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The surge at Shell Beach, LA is just above 7 ft.
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This place is like somebody's memory of a town, and the memory is fading. It's like there was never anything here but jungle
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Apparently the surge in New Orleans with Betsy was 10 ft or so. I think this might out-do that in New Orleans. For SE Louisiana, I'm definitely expecting over 15 ft. It's a much larger hurricane than Michael was.
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6 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:
Yup, especially with late jaunt west. I’d expect storm surge closer to Laura levels that Katrina or Michael.
Laura was about 17-18 ft apparently.
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5 minutes ago, dan11295 said:
What happened to gulf canes weakening on landfall?
Overweighted childhood memories became dogma.
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It's probably more like 931mb because the extrap and dropsonde pressure are off by about 4mb.
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6 minutes ago, csnavywx said:
Acting like Dean and Mitch with these wind profiles. Max warm core strength closer to the surface.
I think that's fairly normal in the strongest, right? The flight level winds and surface winds are close with the big max in between.
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1 minute ago, csnavywx said:
Every storm in this rarified air is different. Katrina's surge will be hard to beat due to its gaping maw and cat 5 intensity well before landfall, which allowed a significant swell and surge to build before it made landfall (it weakened only very shortly before landfall). Ida has had less time, even though it will be stronger in terms of max wind. I suspect the wind damage will be the standout with this one -- though the surge on any cat4/cat5 is no slouch either.
Yeah, you're probably talking about a surge approaching 20 ft at the mouth of the Mississippi here as opposed to 28 ft observed in Katrina in Mississippi.
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1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:
I think they are rated for a CAT 3 and no climate change? Don't know for sure but we do typically only build back things to prevent what happened (CAT 3) and not what could happen (this thing).
The article I read suggested they were built for a 1 in 100 year storm in 2057. So they were assuming some sea level rise too.
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4 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:
Grand Isle Louisiana has rapidly rising waters, per Weather Channel. Webcam is sickening...
Do you have a webcam link?
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In terms of track comparisons, you'd have to think Betsy (1965) is somewhat comparable here.
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IKE is pretty impressive here. Large storm. Katrina was just over 120. This is 95 TJ.
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7 minutes ago, hazwoper said:
So for this storm, it should be fine. Who knows with today’s climate how long it will hold in the future
It's probably fine but I wouldn't want to bet my life on it.
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3 minutes ago, hazwoper said:
I don’t know the exact design standards but I am certain they were designed for Cat 5+ The old levee system was flawed and everyone in the USACE knew it.
anyway this is banter so we should focus on the storm for now.
It was designed for a 1 in 100 year storm and 15 ft of surge.
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We're so used to rapid intensification the last decade or two that steady strengthening of like 2mb an hour all day seems disappointing.
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If you don't know why a storm is not rapidly intensifying, best to blame dry air...because why not?
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4 minutes ago, Prospero said:
Maybe the wise have left, the traffic jam has subsided, and NOW is the time to say, "Get outa Dodge!!"
More likely that the rich have left and the poor have stayed
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3 minutes ago, csnavywx said:
She's still leaning east-of-prog and the margin for NOLA taking the NE eyewall is getting razor thin. I keep saying this, but it needs to stop and soon.
You've been solid on catching that. Where is our diabatic ridge coupling???
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6 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:
In 3-4 hours it should be doing what everyone has been waiting to see
People kinda forgot that strengthening is proportional to strength. (much easier for a stronger storm to strengthen quickly)
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1 minute ago, jojo762 said:
Eight additional Hurricane-force wind barbs on the TT recon map between the max and the beginning of the eye. With the strongest systems, from my experience, there’s usually the strongest winds of the hurricane and then the beginning of the eye with no space in between really.
That's fair. Recon looks like it missed the center, so some of that might be because they didn't come in perpendicular.
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3 minutes ago, jojo762 said:
That kind of wind profile they found, with the main wind-max displaced from “where it should be” with what we traditionally think of as a storm “about to undergo” RI, just doesn’t make it seem like it’s going to be able to intensify rapidly anytime soon.
Perhaps it was their weird flight heading change before entering the eye, but that’s just my two-cents.
I'm not seeing that. The max wind band was about .2 degrees of the lowest pressure they found. It is a large storm with decent-sized eye and that might limit strengthening, but it's where it "should be."
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There's a large seeding operation in southern and central Alberta that's meant to decrease hail size. Even though I'm not sure it works, at least it gives me an out if my forecast for Calgary or Red Deer doesn't work out.
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Ida Banter
in Tropical Headquarters
Posted
Laura hit the least populated area in LA. This is no Katrina, but this is worse than Laura in terms of population affected.