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OSUmetstud

Meteorologist
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Posts posted by OSUmetstud

  1. 7 
    URNT12 KWBC 281019
    VORTEX DATA MESSAGE  AL092021
    A. 28/09:44:45Z
    B. 24.06 deg N 085.26 deg W
    C. 700 MB 3035 m
    D. 987 mb
    E. 195 deg 08 kt
    F. OPEN SE
    G. E03/35/10
    H. 53 kt
    I. 307 deg 16 nm 09:40:49Z
    J. 052 deg 52 kt
    K. 307 deg 22 nm 09:39:16Z
    L. 63 kt
    M. 133 deg 14 nm 09:51:04Z
    N. 225 deg 66 kt
    O. 132 deg 15 nm 09:51:11Z
    P. 10 C / 3067 m
    Q. 14 C / 3053 m
    R. 10 C / NA
    S. 12345 / 7
    T. 0.01 / 0.5 nm
    U. NOAA3 0809A IDA OB 07
    MAX FL WIND 66 KT 132 / 15 NM 09:51:11Z
    

     

    Weird eye shape there, elliptical with a 30-210 degree axis, 10 NM by 35 NM. 

  2. 3 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

    I don’t remember how models did with Rita but they’ve been tightly clustered on a landfall location with this one the last day or so. I think track confidence is fairly high at this point. Margin for error is still probably big enough for New Orleans to miss out on the worst of it, but still seems prudent in this case to give people more time to evacuate than wait for a last second scramble when it’s too late, especially given the potential for a major upon landfall.

    The probably with Rita if I remember correctly is how massive the stated evacuation was and some bad communication where far too many people from Houston on high ground evacuated who shouldn't have. 

    • Like 3
  3. 9 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

    The diabatic pump is real, however I think *at the moment* it's more about the differential steering flow (versus a weaker/shallower and more tilted Ida that some ensembles and deterministic runs had forecast). This constant slight deviation to the right of track adds up over time -- at least until the shear vector weakens and shifts direction late tonight and tomorrow morning.

    The effect might cancel out -- but we could really do with fewer corrections to the east.

    Right, I guess I wasn't sure how much the shorter term jogs to the right would affect the final landfall location, given that the forcing latter should be left. 

  4. 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

    Unflagged 66kt SFMR on this latest pass NW to SE. SE has consistently been the strongest part of the storm. 

    That's the first time it's had hurricane-force SFMR 

    • Like 1
  5. 8 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

    Significant expansion of the wind field right upon closest approach, as phase completed. AWT. New England being New England.


    Model huggers flummoxed.

     

    The whole northeast and Ma is awash in warm air at the low and mid levels. There just isn't much of an ET assist here. Very little baroclinicity. 

    • Like 3
  6. Just now, CoastalWx said:

    Yeah will it? It seems Awfully tight for something our latitude.

    Idk. The recon this morning had a bit less of that e wind maximum as it had tightened and become more stacked. I think it will be small for new England TCs but probably better on the east side than the modeling would suggest

  7. 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

    Amazing how tight wind field is

    I guess the idea is that it will shed off the east wind maximum as it reorganizes and strengthens? Because last night that's where the strongest winds were...like 85 NM SE of the center. 

  8. Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

    You seem to have a learning disability - or perhaps a histrionic disorder which over a dacade of on and off exposure to your jest really evinces this is your problem. 

    When it comes to comprehension.   You miss interpret sardonics/sarcasm and drool cynicism as literal, and take things to a distraction because you merely don't like what you read - miss the point. 

    So .. no, I will not shut the f up based upon your limitations.  

    Sorry.  You are more than welcome not to read, block me, or log off.  Do what you want.   I think it would be easier to lighten up. 

     

    You are literally making up conspiracy based on bullshit. Dont try to justify it to me. 

    Both the news station making up track guidance to fearmonger and the nhc nudging intensity are completely fact free crap that you use to wow us with your psychobabble. 

    • Like 1
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