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OSUmetstud

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by OSUmetstud

  1. OSUmetstud
    In all seriousness, that was a pretty abrupt amplification of the southern stream on the 12z models. You can see snow developing much further into the midwest.
  2. OSUmetstud
    "Everyone knows you never go full NAM"
  3. OSUmetstud
    And you'd think he could build his algorithm to show IP. Those maps annoyingly basically only show snow or zr.
  4. OSUmetstud
    Appears that BUF and a few on the forum got NAMMed last night.
  5. OSUmetstud
    rgem looks nice and amplified
  6. OSUmetstud
    Lots of emotions and disappointment over the b team last nignt. Looks like everything is on track. Im a big fan of the rgem/ecmwf combo. Its pretty deadly. Ecmwf was definitely a tick nw regardless of the final qpf output. Oh and the ssw was effective. Enjoy your cold lol.
  7. OSUmetstud
    Its just the nam being the nam. Dont bother trying to figure it out
  8. OSUmetstud
    00z Rgem looks nice through through 48...much more amplified than the nam or the icon.
  9. OSUmetstud
    Do those even happen anymore?
  10. OSUmetstud
    Major change from 00z was a faster and more amplified southern shortwave with less confluence ahead over NE. Also the northern stream shortwave kicker did come in a bit faster like the other 12z models..so the storm ended a bit sooner than earlier runs.
  11. OSUmetstud
    Id say you can add an additional 3 to 6 inches of fluff sunday from niagara to oswego counties that wont be caught well by the ecmwf qpf progs. This isnt a super ideal lake enhancement scenario however since the storm doesnt track in quebec and throw lots of low level rh over the lakes as it departs.
  12. OSUmetstud
    Qpf: 0.9 buf 1.0 roc 1.4 syr on ecmwf. Much improved from 00z. In faster out faster.
  13. OSUmetstud
    Much of sne wont get plain rain i think maybe just southern ct ri and se ma.
  14. OSUmetstud
    Yeah. Bm track is off the table.
  15. OSUmetstud
    Not too much overall. Just interesting from a met standpoint.
  16. OSUmetstud
    00z euro slower with northern stream than 12z gfs or 12z gem.
  17. OSUmetstud
    The east shunt is a new trend in some ways. Its not really a cave to the 00z ecmwf. The euro didnt have the northern stream kicker come in as fast.
  18. OSUmetstud
    You can look at it out to 84 here. Its experimental and not available elsewhere. http://labanimator.cmc.ec.gc.ca/wind/synoptic_e.html
  19. OSUmetstud
    12z gem.
  20. OSUmetstud
    Dryslot is not a concern for buf.
  21. OSUmetstud
    8 plus. Details to be determined later. I dont think it makes sense to go too high yet especially there.
  22. OSUmetstud
    Gem kinda does the same as the gfs. Faster slightly beefier southern shortwave gets farther north initially but then get shunted east faster as the northern stream shortwave kicks it east.
  23. OSUmetstud
    Yeah then it gets shunted east. The central canada shortwave up near nw ontario on that image comes in faster than the gfs at 00z and 06z.
  24. OSUmetstud
    Its not quite sand lol. I think that will be the case more in CNE where you have more defined max lift at warmer 700mb temps.
  25. OSUmetstud
    You can see weak lift through the column area here with a relative max near -8c/800mb. Its where methods like max t in profile and kuchera fall short. They only take into account temperatures, not rh or omega.
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