OSUmetstud

It's actually 12 to 14 times higher... We can't compare asymptomatic infections of COVID to symptomatic infections of influenza. The IFR of the flu is probably closer to 0.06-0.07%.

Im guessing they haven't bothered creating a vaccine for common coronaviruses because they don't kill people... You're sounding really ignorant here, man. There's a single study that isn't peer reviewed that suggests strands with varying virulence. Herd immunity isn't a solution; it's a result.

It would be nice to know what test NYS used. The NY state study is much bigger than anything else we've seen so it should be more accurate even if there is some false positives. You're going to see more problems with the smaller percentages and the smaller test populations. The regional percentages in WNY, CNY, and northern NY would be much more suspect than NYC and NY as a whole because the smaller percentages are going to more affected by false positives.

NYC probable deaths are added later in the day. Most places are not including those in the US.

Well the probables are a bit more discontinuous since they include cases from weeks ago...the daily confirmed numbers are more indicative of trends. NYC is only place in the state doing that right now. I'm sure there uncounted deaths all over the country.

His numbers are confirmed NYS deaths. Worldometers adds the NYC probable numbers later in the day. It's not some conspiracy lol.

Lol. 3.6 percent of upstate ny and 21 percent of NYC. The state and the city is literally the hardest hit area in the entire country. How do you get 20 percent nationwide?

You really dont seem to understand the numbers...

Not exactly a promising finding. Perhaps neutral or disappointing depending on what you thought the fatality rate might be. This would put fatality rate at 0.8 or 0.9 if you include the NYC confirmed and probably deaths.

Cuomo released preliminary antibody data from NY 13.9 percent of NY sample had antibodies 21.2 percent NYC 3.6 percent upstate ny (excluding NYC Rockland, Westchester, Nassau, and Suffolk)

Maybe. That's the first time someone has suggested this...that there is substantial enough mutations to change virulence. I think we have to be careful with the studies out there...theres a lot of info and and much of it hasn't been peer reviewed.

I appreciate the want or need to be optimistic. I think what the numbers tell us is that it hasn't been widespread in many areas yet. I've posted in the new england forum that NYC had 15 times the deaths (real-time) compared to an average flu season in a month...with a wave peak at about 2/3rds the 1918 flu. (60 deaths per week per 100000 vs. 90 deaths per week per 100000) These type of data show me that the virus just isn't that widespread in other areas. The serology findings in southern California are interesting but idk it doesn't seem to jive with what weve actually seen on the ground. I think people might be lulled into a false sense of security because the social distancing measures have worked and the virus has had very disparate effects and infection rates depending on where you live.

Looks like Erie County is at plateau?

Spain is through the apex as of this morning. They have more recoveries than new cases.

The Icon is so good at tropical forecasting that the NHC doesn't even run statistics on it.

This is the third leading story on fox. Much more responsible. Canadian ex-PM 'rooting' for Hurricane Dorian to slam Mar-a-Lago

indeed

I'm grateful for those who know how to embed tweets, otherwise I wouldn't be able to see any of Ryan Maue's. He blocked me a few months back.

BUF's is cold Sunday I believe (Jan 17th 1982). -37F. Also the week before set the record for the lowest wind chill for an NFL game...the AFC Championship game in Cincy "Freezer Bowl" on jan 10th 1982.

faint green glow to the northeast. Didn't even know anything was going on tonight so no confirmation bias lol. Kp is 5 and the map shows it pretty close so I don't think I'm seeing things.

christ..my heart sank for a minute. overall, pretty funny though after you get over the initial shock

I didn't feel like a fish out of water when I left SUNY Oswego to work in Bermuda...synoptic 1 and 2, the forecast game, and the student website all helped hone forecasting skills. However, I still learned a hell of a lot about forecasting while working in Bermuda for 3 1/2 years. Isohume is right that forecasting is a bit of an art. This is why knowledgeable amateurs can occasionally outforecast meteorologists.

the euros might disagree

If at some point in the future vets are so numerous that they completely block out all non-vets from being considered, then I'd consider a change in policy. Right now, that just isn't even close to the case. It seems like vets do block some of the panels...but probably not most...and definitely not all. Experience still does matter in vets vs. non-vets. If a vet is just a vet with a BS met degree..he would not make GS-09 grade. Therefore, non-vets at GS-09 would still be considered on equal footing to a vet or vets that were referred at GS-07 and GS-05. The MIC is not required to choose a vet in a case like that. For example, I was referred to Spartanburg, SC and Charleston, WV at GS-07 and GS-09, but not at GS-05. Vets were qualified at GS-05 so they were referred, while non-vets at that grade were not. Gold candidates at GS-07 and GS-09 were referred to the MIC.

I don't have a problem with the way vets preference is done. Each and every one of has a choice of joining the military and serving in a forward area and putting your life on the line. This is a policy wherein the government gives back to the vets for their sacrifice. If you don't like it...you can sign up tomorrow and get your vet preference in a few years. Now, I think there certainly is some potential for better candidates being overlooked in deference to a veteran...but I think it's a small price to pay. Having a better resume doesn't even really make you a better forecaster, anyway.