Tatamy

12 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

First snow in two years and I'm scheduled to cover an event at the PPL Allentown PA arena  Friday night and Saturday night - I don't think driving from Allentown PA to Point Beach NJ Saturday at 11 pm will work.  Everything I am seeing puts LV in the bullseye this far out. 

That will be dependent on snowfall rates.  Penndot and NJDOT are usually pretty good with pre-treating the roads with brine and then salting during the event.  These treatments will keep the roads mainly wet with temperatures as low as the mid 20’s.

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow that makes it sound like an early spring event.

Would rates also factor in-- the higher the rate the more chance it will be snow (and also if it occurs mainly at night?)

Rates do matter however the precip type is ultimately dependent on temperatures aloft.

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Theoretically if that's the case then the amount of snowfall could vary a lot based on elevation.  There are hills in northern Manhattan and also on Staten Island that could get snow while the more commercial areas get rain?

 

It’s not based upon the elevation.  It’s based upon the urban heat island effect.  There can be snow with the event anywhere in the city however how much of it sticks is very dependent on surface temperatures.  You then have to incorporate temperatures up in the atmosphere to this equation.  Many models are calling for mixing or even a change to rain.  Throw in the presence of a warm ocean and the nearby LI Sound.  Many parts that play into this scenario.

34 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

With surface temps in the mid 30's, you'd take the under.  Clown maps are exciting to look at, but you do still need to check those temperature panels and soundings...

Your point is well taken.  I was speaking in general terms.  Make no mistake that if even if half of that accumulates on city streets and sidewalks that would be a lot.  The fact that much of this falls at night will help.  I used to work in the city on the west side and recall a number of times where snow was falling at the roof top level (six stories up) and was falling as rain at street level.  It really does take a significant cold air mass to get accumulations especially in Manhattan.

The 06z GEFS mean for the city is 6.8”

18 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Another thing as of now worth noting. There is not much of a reinforcing colder air mass  coming in on the backside of the storm as it pulls away. This is important because as the lifting and vertical velocity dynamics pass their peak whatever snow there is falling will probably mix or change back over. Instead of an incoming HP we have the upper low which could bring a short period of rain or a mix early Sunday night. The incoming cold air is behind that upper low. But that cold air will most likely be wasted as the next storm system heads for the Lakes.

WX/PT

The precip that you refer to will likely be quite light as the event winds down.  In any case whatever snow does fall looks to get completely washed away with the incoming rain storm later Tuesday and Tuesday night into Wednesday.

0z GEFS mean is for 6-8” for all areas from I95 and to the north and west.  Two things stand out on the past 4 runs or so and that is the axis of heaviest snowfall is quite consistent in its placement.  The other is the amounts on the mean have been gradually increasing.

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep very inland

It’s actually a better run for much of NW NJ and SE NY than the 12z run.  

01z NWS BOM has 6-12” to the north and west of I95 with lesser amounts to the coast.

18z EPS mean targets NW NJ, SE NY, and NE PA with about 6” generally.  Lesser amounts down to the coast.

8 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I remember watching the weather channel religiously too. Watching the storm maps for the five day starting with slamming into the Pacific Northwest and making their way across. I feel like that’s changed dramatically 

It’s been years since I last watched that channel.  My service does not even offer it.

10 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Metsfan should start his own wx company. 

It’s easier to do than you think.  Set up a YouTube channel and you can provide users with graphics like that shown above with commentary.  If you reach 1000 subscribers you start getting paid. 

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks! How is the GEFS looking 

Northern NJ / SE NY Jackpot with 7-8” mean.  Less for coastal areas.

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

There could always be a sneaky warm layer and change to sleet over lehigh/central nj

Yeah that’s already been appearing on some of the model runs.

18z GFS is quite progressive with the following event moving in during the day Tuesday and it’s out of here by early Wednesday.  It’s basically a rainer for everyone with 1-2”.

Still have about 48 hours or so until the NAM gets its first chance to start parsing out the warm layers associated with this event.

GEFS mean is a nice look for the area.

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Things change especially since it's 6 days out. 

We are going to have many runs with many different outcomes over the next few days for the upcoming weekend.  We will see results ranging from big hits in the mid-Atlantic, a crush job here, runs with precip issues along the coast, and any combination of the above.  We then potentially get to do it again during next week with a greater chance of a region wide change to rain.  Nothing is currently set in stone for how this all works out.

Just now, MJO812 said:

Strong El ninos usually favor the Mid Atlantic when the pattern is right . 

This setup has been appearing in multiple ensemble members for days now.

18 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Now - what can go wrong ? lol

With the 50/50 low set up like it is it maybe the NE crew that has the most to be concerned.

1 minute ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Fire up one thread, maybe Walt Drag will start another.

Let Walt do the thread for this one.

57 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Bluewave has been a step ahead every forecaster for years now 

Bluewave tells it like it is.

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Gefs look ugly for the east as the southeast ridge links up with Nao domain. 

Tomorrow will mark 700 days since at least 2” of snow was last recorded in Central Park (from the post at the beginning of this thread).  I think if we get through January with this streak still going I like the chances of making it to 1000 days and then some before next years season.

Event total up to 2.37”

Now up to 1.79”.  Still pouring.