Tatamy

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That's something I like about the Poconos, no matter what you'll always get at least one 6 inch snowstorm there.

The best storms I found were the daylong light snow events with absolutely nothing showing on radar.

 

Yes we did get ours this year.

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

We had a great run up until 2021. A long stretch in which we had many above average snowfall winters. That couldn't last forever. We were overdue for a few bad winters. This isn't a surprise. It's frustrating now, but it's hard to complain after the long run that we had. 

I grew up in the 70s on LI.  The concept of a 6”+ storm basically did not exist at that time.  The greatest amounts that were ever forecasted were 4-8” by AW because that was as big a storm as there could be or so it seemed.  We had two storms of about 7” during that period and that was it.  

It’s snowing lightly across much of the Poconos.  It looks like you need to be at least 1200’ up to see this and even there only a light coating is observed on non paved surfaces.  Given the type of storm that this is and the moisture it has it’s quite a sad sight.  Even 2000’ only gets you a coating with steady light snow.  If you live near the coast and think you’re getting a raw deal with the lack of snow you’re not the only one.

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

what's causing this constant warm nose at 850 mb  with storms this year even with a good track?

 

Lack of Arctic stream involvement.

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Mesos were too warm with snow close to the coast. This is mostly rain with some wet snow up to SNE.

Warm nose at 850mb and unfavorable boundary layer were too much to overcome.  

16 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Mainly snow now. Very wet snow. Vehicles getting slushy. 33.8

As expected by virtually all of the models snow has been very hard to come by with this event.  Props to the CMC suite for seeing this from the beginning.  The Euro did a good job of picking up the banding signature that set up from SW to NE across my area and over to northern NJ.  Rain here most of the night  with a temp of 37.8.  Temps have been steady here.  0.82” so far.  I have not seen any snow on the traffic cams that I have looked at along I380/I84 in NE PA.

Looks to be an interesting morning in areas with elevation above 500 - 700 feet near and to the north and west of I78/I287.  Recent HRRR runs are setting up for a surprise dump in those areas.

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

I'll update the headline around 10A to include OBS and any other possible minimizing considerations. Pretty big banding signal front end Sunday morning with heavier rain mixing very briefly with wet snow NYC I80 and possibly changing to a period of heavy wet snow for 3 hours late Sunday morning on snow ratios way down.  More at about 10A.  

 

A review of the soundings on the 12z HRRR shows very nicely the features you are speaking of.  You will need elevation (as always) to get the best results from this.  I would agree places along I80 and north would be best positioned to see this.  I also like the fact that there is no strong southerly flow at 925mb to impede this.

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

More confluence 

Need to get the RGEM / GGEM in on this.  Not happening as of now.

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is trending north 

Sorry guys I tried to give all of us snow.

Ensembles have been fairly consistently north of the OP runs with this event.  Another red flag going against it producing much of any snow near the city.  The focus has been mainly on the I84 corridor.

52 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I guess no one is tracking this weekends event 

Ant - We all have access to the Pivotal site for the basic models with the subscription option for the advanced features.  I even posted when they offered $20 off for the year earlier this month.  I am sure that those who are interested are following it there.

51 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's not crap if we have a good timed ridge out west. 

18z GFS…lol

1.5” new OTG.  Light snow with visibility of 1 mile.  27/24

Light snow here with visibility of one mile.

Steady light snow.  Visibility 1 mile.  33/19

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Something else I've noticed is that the phrase "snow storm" has been replaced by "winter storm" -- WHY? And why is it still called a "winter storm" if it happens in the fall or spring?

This opens up a whole new can of words-- I believe the phrase "winter storm warning" should be replaced with "snow storm warning"-- we already have an "ice storm warning" for freezing rain and sleet is measured as snow, so there is no real reason to use the phrase "winter storm warning" especially when the measuring criteria for that is the amount of snow that falls.  I would get rid of the term "winter storm" completely-- we should be precise in our wording, for a snow event it should be "snow storm" not "winter storm."

 

The term “Winter Storm” covers the whole gamut of precip types that one of these events can produce.  For that reason alone I think it’s a good term to use. 

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's interesting that 3-4" is still forecast up by Mt Pocono, it will probably match the last storm in snowfall amounts.

 

The orographic effect will squeeze out the additional moisture up there.

Very light snow.  Visibility 4 miles.  24/18

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wtf serious ?

It’s absolutely true (from NBC10).

35 minutes ago, dseagull said:

It comes down to lawsuits.  That's the gist of it.   Friends and family in my generation always ask why school is dismissed or cancelled for seemingly benign weather events.  It's always about liability, and the general trend to be more cautious.   Not necessarily a bad thing, except for those who need to make last minute arrangements for childcare.  Times change.   It will be interesting to see whether the bullish forecasts by NWS verify.  They have the tools and expertise, so who am I to doubt them.  

 

I respect the risk evaluation system they have created, similarly to that of the Coast Guard.  Human life is valued and more heavily weighted in these equations. 

Good post.

The state (PA) is announcing restrictions on virtually all of the highways south of I80 to exclude most trucks and all school buses.  The school districts are now virtually all closing for tomorrow.  Interesting to see how this decision process is playing out.

They closed all the schools in Philly for tomorrow on account of the impending storm down there.

18z Euro has run with 1–2” across the area and more down south across central/southern NJ.

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Yea my personal opinion, shared by many met forecasts I've seen here and elsewhere, is that it's really unlikely to get more than 3" N of 78 and especially N of 80. Lee Goldberg, for example, has N of 78 only getting 1-3", but does have 3-6" south of 78. That's why I'll stick with my forecast of 3.3" for my house in Metuchen. The higher amounts south of 78, especially near 195 and south of there make sense assuming that's where the best inverted trough banding sets up.  Would  love to be wrong and get 4"+ and have everyone north of 78 joining in in the fun.  

At the rate the models are going I think 1-2” might be a good number for areas along 78.  If anything the models are telling us that forecasted amounts above that to the north of 78 are looking more and more likely to bust.  

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

1-2

Strongly agree.  I am expecting those amounts here as well.  Depending on future model runs Mt. Holly may have to revisit expected snow totals north of I78 in NJ and PA.