Tatamy

Pouring here.  Up to 1.33” on the day.

2 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Just want to make sure I'm following along...up until 48 hours ago, we were excited that a SSWE would occur to lock in a long-term, cold and snowy pattern. Now that the models seem to be backing off that idea it's, "we don't want a SSWE cause they wrecks our snow chances". 

A SSWE represents the start of a pattern change.  It is in no way a guarantee of a long term cold and snowy pattern.  I will describe the issue in a simple manner.  Over the past several winters we have seen the establishment of a very strong west to east jet stream over and across the northern Pacific Ocean.  The significance of this is that it prevents the sustained formation of a ridge over the western states which would deliver cold air down to us from northern Canada.  This said jet stream literally blows away this ridge before it can get established and covers the country in mild Pacific air which is too mild for snow.  This was the issue last winter.  

FWIW there have been other periods where NYC had snow amounts of less than 20” over successive winters.  These include:

1899 - 1901

1927 - 1932

1949 - 1955

1961 - 1963

1974 - 1975

1979 - 1981

1987 - 1990

1997 - 2000

2006 - 2008

None of these winter periods featured seasonal totals of 20” or more (I am referring to the seasonal totals experienced during these years and not the entire period shown).  Many of them were 15” or less.  These numbers are from the NWS Upton website.  Unfortunately for the weenies it is a part of the climatology here that we do in fact experience successive winters with meager snow amounts.  I would have hated to be a weenie in 1949 knowing that the next 6 winter periods would all have less than 20” of snow.

You don’t even see a fantasy storm on the GFS within 300 hours on these runs.  Every attempt at a ridge gets quickly squashed by that power house PAC jet.  It looks like we really are cooked.  

34 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I will not look at 300 hour gfs runs this winter 

I will not look at 300 hour gfs runs this winter 

I will not look at 300 hour gfs runs this winter 

I need to make the same commitment… lol  -  I do look at the ensembles as a reality check.

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks I'm headed up there in a couple of hours!  So a little less than an inch up my way?

1/2” give or take.

I was up in northeastern Pennsylvania today where there was actually some snow on the ground from overnight snow showers.  It was very hit or miss with some places having about a 1/2” - 3/4” OTG while many others were green and brown like these parts.  I actually saw some blowing snow in one area - that was a shock to see.  2000’ in the Poconos got you 3/4”.  I did come across one place where there was a shopping center with a sheet of ice in the parking lot.  I don’t miss that.  I am guessing that area will have a Christmas as brown as ours.

Anyone else (NW NJ / NY)have a small coating of snow on the ground this morning?  My low so far has been 33.5.  I looked outside and thought this can’t be real.

Event is winding down out here.  Rainfall total 3.04”

Rain total now up to 2.42”

Rain total up to 1.47”

Rain total up to 0.50”

0z NAM is not good news for coastal areas.

Just now, Rmine1 said:

Maybe a trade off between less rain and stronger winds?

SLP is projected to occlude by the models as it reaches our latitude.  This is why the strongest winds are projected to remain off shore.

3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Thought same things. Trends look west


.

I am seeing that as well.

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Seriously impressive observations coming out of that area. If that makes it up here this is going to be a very high impact event. Seas peaked at 33’ during sandy at 44065 Ny harbor buoy. Seeing high 20’s in the Carolina’s is very impressive. 

Seas peaked well offshore in the mid 40’s with the passage of Sandy.  I checked a number of the offshore buoys situated to the north and northeast of Cape Hatteras earlier and most of them were not reporting off shore wind data.  These are the buoys situated off of the mid Atlantic coast.  This is concerning.

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

HRRR winds at 850 roughly 50 KT...getting gusts 40-45KT SC coast.

My daughter is in Charleston now.  Streets are currently under water as far as she can see in the downtown area.

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

There will be substantial impacts in parts of our area. Wet ground...gusts 40-50 trees slop over.  Power outages again,  this time I think more in NJ/CT/MA than back ion NYS/ne PA.  Flooding rainfall for parts of the area. So unless the track slides west through PA, there will be plenty to observe Sunday-Monday.  

Not sure if anyone saw the EC 90 hours 525 5H low in Ohio. Swift changes ahead for Tuesday morning.  In my mind,no doubt  an active 3 days (Sun night-Tuesday). 

How about the prospect of flight delays at the NY area airports on Monday?  

All done here with a storm total of 1.90”.  We did get a period of light snow which did not stick.  

Total here up to .94”.  Wind has been a non issue here today.  Temp down to 53 with the cold frontal passage.  Looking for some white rain in the morning.

28 minutes ago, North and West said:

What does NSSL WRF stand for? TIA!


.

National Severe Storms Laboratory Weather Research and Forecast Model.  You can google additional information about it including forecast parameters used.

31 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

.9 at the park.   Before that you had to go back to Feb 2022 to find a snowfall more than 1" there.   PHL is even worse.

Over time I believe it will become increasingly difficult to see snowfalls of 1” or more in NYC.  This won’t be solely caused by global warming either.  I used to work in Manhattan back in the first decade.  I worked in midtown near 34th and 9th Avenue.  In a borderline event with wet snow I would routinely walk from 9th to 8th Avenues and the snow would turn to rain due to the urban heat island effect.  You could walk down some streets and see snow falling at the rooftops and rain at street level.  Now that West Side Yards has been built I am sure that is no longer possible.  That brings me to my point.  There are currently plans for what are known as “Supertalls” all over Manhattan and the other nearby boroughs.  Investors are buying up properties and tearing down what is there in order to construct these enormous buildings.  NYC is well on its way to having into the hundreds of these 800’ to 1000’ buildings throughout the city.  I think by 25-50 years or so there will only be snow in Manhattan with the most intense/cold storms.  I believe that this man made mountain range will have other effects in the region that have yet to be seen or determined.

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

First flurries of the season here currently 

 

32 

 

Looks the Philly area is in for a nice surprise this morning 

Two days in a row with light snow in the morning.  Yesterday we had a coating which was gone by lunchtime.  Today a slightly heavier coating so far.  The heaviest amounts I have seen up in the Poconos (about 2000’) look to be about an inch.  Reminds me of some of the garbage events from last year.

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Exactly. Terms like optimism and pessimism are only relevant in situations where your input can help to determine the actual outcome. To my knowledge, nobody on this forum or Wxtwitter that loves winter weather like us has invented a weather control device. But looking for the hints that enable us to successfully forecast the long range pattern is a big benefit to society. Especially in this age of rapid warming on a geological scale and extreme weather.

Maybe some on here incorrectly infer from my posts that I don’t like winter. This is pretty far from the truth. I was born a few days after an historic KU snowstorm. So it’s as close in weather terms to being born under and astrologically snowy sign.. When I point out the extreme ratio of something like 20 to 30 top 10 warmest months since 15-16 to only on cold one it’s not something that gives me pleasure. I don’t like extreme warmth and heat but just had to learn to adapt like everyone else. I would enjoy a meal at a favorite restaurant with even someone on the forum who disagrees with me most of the time. Since the common bond is the love for everything weather and climate and not our differences. I actually have a really great sense out humor and levity which may not always come across in my posts. So main main passion is looking for clues in order help us better forecast the weather in the geologically rapidly warming climate. 

In my time on these boards I have found you to be one of the most knowledgeable and objective posters that I know.  You provide very insightful analysis and substantiation to back it up.  I find that I have learned a great deal from the posts that you provide.  Thank you for your contributions.

Steady light snow at 34 degrees.  Visibility 1 mile with this channelized vorticity activity dropping south from the lakes.  This has been well modeled for a few days now.  Not really sticking.