Tatamy

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Just a gorgeous mid January day here

 

Different world here.  The cold front came through around 10:30 AM and it has been in the low 40s since.  

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Smh

I think the Governor was behind this and given the expected conditions it is probably the correct decision.  It’s always interesting to watch these games played in these conditions however when you have tens of thousands of people going out on the roads to get there this is probably the better call.

37 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Edit: re. [mention=18064]mannynyc[/mention] post of sim ref a few posts above

Looks good for a squall there tomorrow. Too warm in NYC and LI to accumulate but surface wet bulbs and wet bulb zero heights are low enough for it to probably be snow if it stays coherent as it comes through, which both the HRRR and NAMnest are hinting at.

If this happens, could be some brief fun, with heavy snow and 40-50 mph gusts. These soundings are pretty classic, featuring very deep mixing, very steep low to mid level lapse rates, sufficient moisture, and instability. Could get a quick coating over interior sections.




 

If you are north and west of the city tomorrow you will definitely need to look out for some nasty snow squalls.  This will be particularly true in the Poconos over to the Catskills.

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro has mood flakes

Good for dusting up surfaces 

It has a “storm”.  We will take it.

3 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

If you're disappointed in the dwindling snowfall amounts for this storm, go over to the January thread (GFS is huge for 1/19-1/20, which of course is still a week away).  

The big question will be is does it keep the storm.  Like always we will follow the other models to see what they do with it.  FWIW the 12z ensembles do have it.

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's January and day time snow looks a lot better

what use is 6 inches of snow if you can't really see it fall?

Do you have floodlights outside your house?  If not consider getting them for this purpose.

2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Ukie just came in with a pretty nice 2 to 5 inch event. I agree with a 1 to 3 inch call right now. 

Ukie has been very consistent with this event.  Over time the totals have come down some however the axis of expected accumulation has remained basically the same.  It may or may not bust ultimately however I have to like that consistency.

06z RGEM/NAM/ICON all have the storm for Tuesday.  The NAM is over amped but the RGEM / ICON are definitely interesting.

9 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Ima save this post.  

Snowman19 is entitled to his opinions however there are other posters here whom I pay more attention to.  It doesn’t hurt to have someone with his point of view on the board.  He does substantiate his posts however a lot of that seems to be cut and paste pieces from selected posters on X.  

4 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Any improvements with this mornings EURO 6Z run?

EPS is still running.  06z OP run only goes out 90 hours so we are not yet within the range of the off hour runs.  That changes tomorrow.

FWIW the 18z GEFS has decided it wants in on this event.  Up to now the model has been decidedly uninterested in this.  With the 18z run 15/20 members (from the COD website) are calling for at least 2” across the area.  7/20 members are calling for 6” or more.  This data does incorporate 10:1 ratios however if you look at the soundings I think this can be a safe number across much of the area.  The ensemble mean is 4-6”.

39 minutes ago, kingbaus said:

Did the 18z euro come out yet?

18z EPS came out- nice look for the area.

2.23” of rain here.  NAM busted hard on the winds here however ( I am in an inland valley location).  Max was about 25 mph and the model called for the same strength wind gusts that were called for and largely attained on LI.  HRRR did better with the stronger wind gusts being along the coast.

Waiting on that squall line currently just west of Allentown.  Interesting look on radar to it.

16 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Winds almost calm here, nothing like 12/18 at all.  Snow pack keeping the inversion strong 

Similar conditions here.  It’s pouring with winds of 5-15 mph with some gusts to 20 mph.  Inversion is holding up well.  

18 minutes ago, wdrag said:

1 mile S- 31f.  Pave wet in Wantage 740’ msl

Light rain here.  36/32

0z NAM / NAM 3K hits the wind gust potential very hard tomorrow night.

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

I can’t even remember any La Niña January when we had 2 Great Lakes cutters of 976 mb or lower only 3 days apart. 
 

January 26, 1978 was the date of the Ohio Valley Blizzard.  Lowest pressure reached 960 mb in Detroit and 956 mb in Mt. Clemens, MI.  This resulted in a tremendous windstorm in the NE part of the country.  Winds where I lived on the north shore of LI at the time reached 50-60 mph in gusts for a good part of the day and these winds were from the SW after the cold front passed.  

With additional rounds of snow my total is now up to 6.5”.  According to radar I am done.

Snowing moderately currently with the snow showers and squalls in this area.  32/31.

We went back to snow about an hour ago and picked up another 1/2”.  Total now 5.5” OTG.  32/31

7 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

the best rain/snow line indicator around…

Very true!

Getting some light freezing drizzle now.  32/31.  Roads are horrendous here.

5” new OTG.  It really ripped here for the past two hours under those heavy echoes.  It’s tapered down to flurries as the most intense echoes have moved to my north.

Ripping here in Bethlehem.  We are getting 2” flakes under those bright echoes.  4” new OTG.