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Tatamy

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Posts posted by Tatamy

  1. 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

    One thing everyone should always remember is that the snow to liquid ratio is usually 10:1, in other words, the typical variability of a rainstorm is magnified 10x in a typical snowstorm.  So a difference between half an inch of rain and a full inch of rain becomes the difference between 5 inches of snow and 10 inches of snow.  Which is why when people hear or see a forecast for 5-10 inches of snow they shouldn't assume they'll get 10 inches.  It could just as easily be 5 inches.

     

    Liberty - that is not a correct statement.   That figure is more commonly used as a point of reference to relate the amount of QPF progged to expected snow amounts.  In coastal areas (and inland too) the ratio can range from 5:1 in warmer storms with BL issues to 10:1 in slightly colder storms.  15:1 ratios can occur with colder storms accompanied by optimal conditions aloft.  

  2. 5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

    Then the question becomes is how much snow will actually accumulate in a place like NYC if the HRRR forecast of 34° to 35° is correct when the changeover back to snow occurs?

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    Unless you have temps into the mid 20s (which are not expected with this event) streets and sidewalks in Manhattan are likely to be mainly just wet.  Neighborhoods in the outer boroughs can get accumulations in this setup however that will be highly dependent on what the specific surface is, if it’s normally shaded during the day, and if it accumulates water on it.

  3. 34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

    I think they made a good point about further storm track shifts with the model runs later today into 0z due to possible changes with convection over the Southeast. So we’ll monitor how the CAMS like the HRRR handle this convection vs the actual radar trends later today. 

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    FWIW the 12z HRRR is running and looks quite similar (there is less snow in the Poconos) to the 6z run.  Like you said the 18z run will provide a better look at the evolution of this convection.

  4. 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

    Some still think it will pass off the DelMarVa.

    You guys have to start criticizing the weather channel, they are spreading false info.

    1) They have said for days this is a noreaster

    2) They have said for days this is passing south and east of the benchmark "ensuring mostly snow for the coast" (their words....)

    3) They have said for days now that this is a "monster" I-95 snowstorm.

    I went at them on social media telling them that they make a good case for why people from the south have no clue what an I-95 snowstorm or noreaster even is and why people in Atlanta have no business making weather forecasts for the northeast. So while we can blame "weenies" the real people to blame, once again, is the media, for spreading false information.

     

    Why do you follow the Weather Channel?

    • Haha 1
  5. 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

    More snow fell out at Queens and on parts of Long Island than Central Park in the 1969 storm. The storm total precipitation was quite a bit higher at JFK (2.49") than at Central Park (1.82"). JFK sometimes receives more snow depending on the storm's track, dynamics, etc.

    There was also banding with it which is common with those types of events.

    • Like 1
  6. 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

    I think the focus on a light event is warranted until there is more support for something bigger. The GFS is too aggressive. Apparently, a social media account compared the upcoming event to the February 1969 Lindsay Storm (15.3” in NYC and 20.2” at JFK). But that account didn’t tell a key part of the story: the temperature for that storm fell from 34 into the middle 20s. Most of the precipitation fell with readings that were below freezing. That’s not the case this time around. Were there a similar air mass, then we’d be looking at a significant snowfall. One other omission, the 1969 storm was much wetter than what is likely this time: NYC: 1.82” and JFK: 2.49”.

    I believe the Synoptics with that event were quite different than those expected with this one.  The ‘69 storm was a Miller B.  The total snow amount where I was on the north shore of LI was in the neighborhood of 20-24”.  I have a picture of 5-6 foot drifts in our backyard.

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