Tatamy

0z UKIE

Snowing 30F

Steady light snow here.  33/30

1” new.  More than I was expecting.

50 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Some very light snow beginning to fall in southern Lehigh County despite the radar showing nothing.

Just starting to see a few light flurries over here in Bethlehem Twp.

11 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Hrrr gives me a couple hours of snow around midnight, Allentown nothing

 

Strongly agree that nothing more than perhaps a few flurries makes it to ABE tonight.

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I got 3 inches yesterday.  Who was screwed ?  I have screenshots of you stating that NYC was only going to get 2 inches for the rest of the month but I'm not going to post those.  Stop making blank statements.

I got a half inch of slop yesterday.  No worries because I knew it wasn’t going to produce out here.  We all know that we’re not going to get snow from every system that comes.  I am very happy that you folks in the city and on the island did well with it.  In any case this week looks quite good.

We have actually flipped over to light snow here.  Looks like just enough to cover up the sleet and ice from last night.  Roads are very treacherous.  29 F

Freezing drizzle here with 28F.  Kudos to the RGEM / Euro for predicting the snow burst that set up over the Metro area.  For me the NAM gets the win with no snow and sleet and freezing rain only.  I got about 0.25” of sleet and ice.  I actually just woke up to the sound of the salt truck in my neighborhood.  Many of the models were predicting a tight gradient between snow and no snow over western NJ and that turned out to be the case.

Freezing rain.  27/25

56 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah places in lehigh valley are starting as sleet and flipping to snow. Hopefully we can squeeze out an hour or two

Pouring sleet here currently.

3 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Agreed.  The current radar is quite close to what the fairly snowy 21Z HRRR was showing at 6 pm, whereas the 18Z NAM at 7 pm looked weak and spotty.  Doesn't mean the HRRR will be right and the NAM wrong, but that's the case so far, IMO.

Not sure where you got that radar view on the bottom from but it’s not correct.

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I think this looks pretty identical to the radar currently in Pa. Everything looks aimed towards the metro but what ptype is up to debate. I do like how strong and solid the returns looks currently 

As of 6 PM you have to be north of I80 if you want to find snow in PA.  The only exception is Fort Indiantown Gap which is reporting flurries.  Everyone else is reporting ice / sleet/ wintry mix or rain.  All Pittsburgh reporting sites are reporting thunderstorms.  

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Sleet line is just N of I-80 in PA. State College will likely get nailed with sleet for a few hours. 

As of 5PM Johnstown which is an elevated location was reporting Freezing rain.  Pittsburgh Intl was reporting a thunderstorm… lol.  This is certainly a dynamic system.

6 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

That wall of snow is booking it across PA now! Btw gfs looks colder and snowier 

There’s no wall of snow in PA

3 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Why so low?  NWS has you getting ~2" of dense snow/sleet (0.4" QPF as snow/sleet, so ~4" of snow worth), then 0.1" of ZR which will be absorbed into the pack.  Do you think they're going to be that far off?  

Yes.  I will post a picture in the morning of the final result!

Here’s the latest summation of reports off of mping

23 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

By me, I don't see us getting alot of zr here. I'm thinking maybe 2-3" of snow. Then maybe 1" of sleet.

Up by you I agree you have a chance.

9 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Agree. Thursday we got 1" of snow and sleet here. We still have 1/2 of it on the ground. 

I am bare here.  I am figuring maybe a half inch of sleet with some ice to boot here.

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@SnowGoose69 @wdrag There is going to be a very strong, potent midlevel warm nose extending well north tonight and we are going to go over to sleet even up to Orange, Sussex and Putnam. In situations like this, the globals and even some mesos will completely miss it and bust horribly on snow totals. It also appears the primary is going to drive quite far north now. Go with the NAM suite/SREFs for situations like this. The RGEM and HRRR can even be way too cold aloft for these, see this past event we just had
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

18z NAM is way north with the snow now.  HRRR is starting to move north also.  I wish you guys near the city a lot of luck with the snow.  I agree with the potential for major sleet impacts in much of the area.  This is very similar to what happened the other day.

13 minutes ago, cannoliman42 said:

I’ve never seen such disparity between the HRRR and NAM than I have with these last two storms. 6+ inches or near nothing. Based on the last storm, I’m hanging my hat on the NAM (near nothing). 

Most people blew off the NAM with the last event and what happened?  Conversely the HRRR was very aggressive with snow amounts and ended up scaling these back just as the precipitation arrived.  I would go with the NAM.  

Sleet and freezing rain mix here.  0.20” new.  28F

1 minute ago, rgwp96 said:

So much for the heavier rates changing it to snow  that I was hoping for 

Certainly doesn’t look like it to me at least for places south and west of the city.  

Moderate freezing rain 28/26