Tatamy

Storm total 3.2” here in Bethlehem Twp., PA

Storm is done here.  Total is 3.2”

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

NWS-Philly just issued advisories for most of CNJ/NNJ/NEPA for 2-4" of total snowfall (but not Middlesex, lol).

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1007 PM EST Fri Dec 20 2024

Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Mercer-Lehigh-Northampton-
Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Allentown, Trenton, Easton, Perkasie,
Doylestown, Morrisville, Flemington, Newton, Morristown,
Washington, Somerville, Bethlehem, and Chalfont
1007 PM EST Fri Dec 20 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern, and northwest New Jersey
and east central and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

Good move on their part.

Moderate snow currently with a storm total of 2.3”.  30F

This system is really starting to crank.  We have moderate snow currently with 2.3”.  30F

Up to 2” new here in Bethlehem Twp.  Steady light snow continues.  30F

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Looks like Boston officially had 4.4” as of 7pm so their 4” drought is over and they’ll have a white Christmas. NYC will likely come out still at T, going into another bitter 3 day brown ground freeze. 

Apparently the event over performed and a lot of the locals were taken by surprise.  I am told that local internet based forecasts were only calling for an inch or so.

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

From the SNE thread

Boston

The Boston snow drought looks like it’s coming to an end tonight.  My daughter who lives in the Back Bay already has between 3-4”.  Big bust to the high side underway there.

It appears that the Boston snow drought is coming to an end.  My daughter who lives in Allston in the Back Bay already has between 3-4” and sent me this picture.  Big bust to the high side underway there.  Radar is crazy with the way the heavier echos are training (literally funneling) right into Boston currently.

1 minute ago, steve392 said:

Right in the bulleyes of that yellow circle too.  It's coming down at a good clip right now in mahwah after a slight lull.  Really starting to accumulate on most surfaces .

I am seeing that also.

5 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

 

This is a radar view of what I was referring to.  It is right near the Delaware River.  Your shot also shows it.

2 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

So no conservation of energy with this setup?

The coastal has exited stage right if you will.  It was never expected to be a big player in providing snow to this area.  The trough and IVT are the features that going forward will provide the snow with this event.

2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

But how far N and W is the big question

Take a look at high resolution radar.  I use the site weather.cod.edu.   If you look closely at the elements you can plainly see echos coming west from the Jersey Shore while other echos come east from central PA.  They are meeting along the Delaware River.  This is where the IVT is currently set up.  Where these echoes meet the accompanying moisture is lifted higher into the atmosphere and then precipitates back down mainly in the form of snow in this instance.  This matches where the models are calling for the higher snow accumulations.  Later tonight as the trough moves in the feature will weaken and push out to the east.  

13 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Very light snow in Garwood NJ.  About 35 degrees.  Slight patch o' white on the periphery.  Filled in better than I expected, staying mostly snow.  We have a clipper, developing coastal and an inverted trough.  Without models, I expect the developing coastal to pull most of the energy from the clipper.  Even though some say the low was around the outer banks, I think it is much further north than that, and by the time the original source gets here, I would think the coastal will have robbed most of it and "heaviest" snow will be north of suburban NYC?

“Heaviest” snows will be north and west of NYC.  The coastal was expected to move out quickly from our area this afternoon making room for the trough and IVT to approach from the west.

Steady light snow with a coating on most surfaces.  31/29

Snowing very hard now in the Harrisburg area as the IVT begins to set up.

New 12z HREF with 1-2” for most and 2-4” for elevated locations N&W.  Only exceptions would be the Jersey Shore and the South Shore and East End of LI

Steady light snow with a light coating on some colder surfaces.  31/29

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Radar firing in NJ

The precip along the Jersey coast is rain.  Temps there are in the upper 30s and low 40s.  Temps out on LI are in the mid to upper 30s.  Anecdotally the R/S line looks to be roughly along I95

Currently heavily overcast where I am.  31/25.  There are a few lonely snow flakes around as well.

10 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Well its snowing in parts of coastal mass due to ocean effect and echos breaking out to our south east and west. Im not the most astute meteorologist but from the eyes it def looks west.

We don’t live in Massachusetts.  (Unless you’re visiting from the New England board.). Just because there are echoes on radar doesn’t mean it’s snow.  You are correct about the precip from the coastal being west however the precip field from that feature will move out to the east this afternoon.  If anything accumulates that would most likely be this evening and tonight.

52 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Another tick west for both the nam and gfs 6z suites. Nyc east gets into the main precip shield for a bit now,followed by the ivt. Also of note is the precip running up the delmarva coast currently.

The precip coming up from off the Delmarva coast and right along would be in the form of rain.  There are no current reports of precip reaching the ground there.  Temps there are in the mid 40s.  Temps along the NJ coast and LI are in the mid 30s and that would support mainly rain during the daytime hours with snow possibly mixing in during any heavier bursts on LI.  In any case no snow accumulations are expected during the daytime hours except for higher elevations well north and west.  This is the theme of what the NWS is going with for the area.  
 

The best chance for snow accumulations for most of us is dependent on additional energy coming in tonight with the trough.  We still have the possibility of the formation of the IVT as well for tonight.

FWIW whatever snow that falls during the day tomorrow before 4pm will be melting on contact unless you have at least 500-700’ in elevation or are in a place that gets good rates.

51 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

pretty much all of them showed an fgen band intersecting a wide dgz

I remember that the HRRR had it but was not sure of the others.  Thanks.

15 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the meso models showed the fgen band very well

Which ones?