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Everything posted by Tatamy
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I was the same age but was in the NYC area during the run up to this event. My source of information was the Accuweather Mets on WINS. They spoke of a strong LP system that would be diving out of Alberta and would serve to generate an intense storm along the mid Atlantic coast. This discussion started on the Friday and Saturday before the event (Monday). This scenario was what was being generated on the models of that time. There seemed to be little doubt in their minds. The Mets I am referring to are Dr. Joel Myers, Dr. Joel Sobel, and Elliott Abrams. The only other event that I can recall that was forecasted that far in advance with that level of certainty was the Superstorm of 1993.
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Low level inversion seems to be in place out here in eastern PA and NW NJ this morning. Low elevation locations are currently in the low to mid 30s while most other places are well into the 40s. This is resulting in 10 to 15 degree temperature differences across short distances.
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Winds along the shore in most places never went down to calm to allow for radiational cooling. I have a station on Fire Island which never had winds go below 3-4mph and that resulted in temperatures staying in the 40s all night. Interestingly when I looked at WU there were stations almost within walking distance of the Great South Bay that did go calm and drop off to freezing.
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Bottomed out at 26 out here.
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My lettuce and parsley are still going strong. Everything else has been frosted out over the past two nights. I had some impatiens in pots that I had placed next to my foundation in order to see if I could keep them going. Last night’s frost got them. I have found that 24 degrees is the cutoff for what parsley will survive down to. I any case my lettuce and parsley are in flats that I can bring in if it gets that cold.
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You would probably see the lights from your place in the Poconos.
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Low here is 27 this morning. Temps down to between 20 and 25 up near your place.
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32.
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28 out here.
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32 out here. Growing season is done.
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How about the 68 mph out at Fire Island Pines?
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Recent gust to 68 mph at Fire Island Pines.
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Block Island has two stations on WU currently reporting wind gusts to 69 mph. The highest gusts there have been to 77 mph. These are the stations at the Water Tower and at Southeast Light.
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Just checked some stations along Fire Island. It seems that the winds have gone calm or nearly calm and the pressure has leveled off/bottomed out. This is the case at a number of locations that I have looked at ranging from Ocean Beach on east.
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There is wind in the NYC metro area. It’s along immediate coastal areas where the models have been forecasting it to be. Later on could be a much different story.
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Recent gusts along Fire Island and Gilgo Beach already up to 40 and 44 mph (Davis network).
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0z NAM and 3K NAM has me getting 5-6” with this event.
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Not quite. I am at 0.45” so far with the showers and storms over eastern PA. I figure to be near an inch by 1-2 am.
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There is no question that the departure of the heavy rains is going to effect the ability of the stronger winds to mix down. That’s a given. When the first round of heavier echoes went through my area earlier I gusted to over 20 mph. Now it’s back to almost calm with the lighter rain that I am seeing now.
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The Euro has been showing this potential since yesterday at least. The question is whether these winds mix down over land vs the coastal waters as modeled. SLP won’t be deepening as it retrogrades to the west and SW over the coastal areas. It will have leveled off in intensity as it makes this motion and would tend to help spare land areas. Models that bring the center of SLP closer to the NY region have been relatively consistent with the idea of the strongest winds mixing down over the coastal waters. You won’t have to go far to find these winds as they would rake areas including LI Sound and the Great South Bay.
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Let’s see what the other overnight mesos put out.
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0.34” so far with the first round of 35 dbz echos as they moved through the Allentown/Bethlehem area.
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Rain with thunder and lightning as the first rain band moves up from the south.
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I have both. Davis is better. Weatherflow is not as good with rain fall amounts. In heavy rains the ultrasonic wind equipment gets faded out so you don’t get accurate wind measurements. Stick with Vantage Vue or Vantage Pro 2.
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