Tatamy

FWIW while everyone is watching the threat for next week don’t forget the snow showers and squalls moving down from the N and NW across the Poconos, NW NJ , and SE NY at this time. They are starting to move in to the range of local radars. They are producing locally heavy bursts of snow as they move through.

Yes it does. The squalls moving into the Scranton area are quite potent right now.

A peak at a webcam along I81 north of Scranton shows this activity is still very healthy. Visibility at this location (MM206) looked to be 1/4 mile or less. Radar up there looks good. Latest run of the HRRR (01z) indicates this activity could drop up to 1/2” across NE PA and far NW NJ and adjacent SE NY down towards the Cuomo Bridge.

As shown above the models do not have a handle on what will be happening next weekend. These are the 12z outputs from the GEFS.

31/27 with light freezing drizzle. Light icing on some untreated surfaces.

30/25 with light freezing rain.

Classic CAD setup this morning with a light southerly wind starting to warm the lowest layers of the atmosphere especially along the coast with colder temperatures inland. Temps along the south shore of the island have risen into the mid 30s while along the north shore they are in the lower 30s. Temps in the city are in the low to mid 30s. Just inland they are in the upper 20s. WWA is up for places just to the north and west where temperatures are below freezing. I am in the upper 20s with freezing rain as shown on radar almost on my doorstep. Temps in western PA to the west of the spine of the Appalachians (a line drawn roughly from north to south from the State College area) are above freezing with rain. This all aligns with the model projections from yesterday. This looks to be a nasty day on the highways away from the coast with this setup.

Take a drive into NYC tomorrow morning and let us know how you make out. Maybe the models will be wrong.

This would be a big wind producer as modeled.

Looks like your forecast from several days ago panned out for those areas situated where the band set up. Nice work!

Snow has gotten underway here.

Snow has reached the Reading, PA area. Visibility looks to drop quickly with onset.

Last two runs of the Euro at 0z and 6z look like this as well.

Indications from the shorter term models show that the best chance for banding to set up would be from central/southern NJ across LI and on into CT and eastern NE.

18z Euro would be 3-5” for most with 4-7” in the parts of central and southern NJ that jackpotted on Monday. Eastern NE jackpots with this run.

21z RAP is a weenie run for the area.

Steady light snow at Ocean Beach now.

Steady light snow at the Ponquogue Bridge in Hampton Bays. Visibility under a mile out there. I also just checked Tobay Beach and it looks like the snow is just offshore.

Flurries in the air at Ocean Beach.

There is no snow along the south shore as of now. I just checked webcams in Ocean Beach and East Hampton. From the sky conditions I saw I think if it does reach the south shore it would get to Fire Island first.

Light snow has reached up to Asbury Park on the north Jersey coast.

The snow that potentially will fall later in eastern Suffolk will be related more to what is happening on the synoptic scale. Assuming it happens I would agree that there could be ocean enhancement. As of now I like the chances for snow to fall on the island, especially along the south shore.

Snowing in Point Pleasant, NJ. That would be almost to exit 98 on the GSP.