Tatamy

18z GFS - A track like this where the center lingers along the west coast of FL not far from Tampa Bay is going to cause major tidal surge issues.

Strongest winds I have seen have been 84 mph at Henry Island and 77 mph at Gabarus. Also a gust 79 mph near Glencoe.

Lowest pressure I have found is 953 mb at West Arichat on Cape Breton Island.

Winds out here were not that especially strong today. We maxed at 32 mph out here. The strongest winds that I was aware of was along the south shore of LI- Fire Island in particular where Fire Island Pines maxed at over 50 mph. I am not aware of any issues with trees down out this way.

Wind speeds have come down across eastern Nova Scotia (especially closer to Halifax) and the direction has changed over to more of a westerly component as the center starts to move through. Lowest pressure I have seen in the Davis network is 960 mb.

Wind gusts up to 82 mph at Henry Island.

Must be as recon was flying around Sable Island a little earlier.

Out by me we have actually decoupled with calm winds and a temperature of 46. We might even get below 40.

There’s a separate thread for that under tropical headquarters.

Henry Island now gusting to 79mph. Station is just off the NW shore of Cape Breton Island.

I think that is exactly what will happen.

A lot of stations going offline with power outages increasing. I am seeing a lot of pressure values in the range of 28.50 to 28.65 inHG currently in the region. This converts to 965-970 mb.

Winds at Henry Island are now 51 mph gusting to 70 mph.

Recon now flying to the west just south of the eastern shore of Nova Scotia. Surface winds are being measured to 65-70 kts along there.

Starting to see a lot more locations with wind gusts to between 50-60 mph, especially in more exposed places. This is especially true in eastern Nova Scotia.

Winds at Henry Island now gusting to 69 mph.

Recon has found the strongest winds to be well to the south and east of the center. Areas well to the west of the center have not yet been sampled on the current mission.

NWS Caribou has issued a high wind warning for eastern Maine for the overnight hours through 8AM tomorrow for winds expected to gust up to 55 mph.

Recon is in the storm now and strongest surface winds have been measured ~ 65 - 70 kts. Strongest flight level winds have been measured at over 100 kts. Recon just flew to the south of Sable Island.

Environment Canada has a station there. Last report from an hour ago had winds of 37 knots with gusts to 47 knots.

Yup - 46 mph with a recent gust to 61 mph. Station is in a very exposed location as well.

Tropical Storm force wind gusts have now reached Cape Breton Island and eastern Nova Scotia. The highest wind gust I have seen so far is at Gabarus with a gust to 49 mph and a pressure of 29.12 inHg (Davis Network) Barometric pressure values close to this are common in that region at this time.

Regarding your statement about NYC not likely to get hit by a major hurricane, not true. In 1976 and 1985 Hurricanes Belle and Gloria made landfall on the south shore of Nassau County. Both were Cat 1’s. Belle at Jones Beach and Gloria further east towards Massapequa. If you can go down to Coney Island or any other beach and look out over the ocean then yes a hurricane and a major one at that can hit NYC or anywhere else in the region. Sandy has been described as a one in a 500 year storm and Fiona may end up in the same category. The fact that the east coast of North America has been hit by two such storms in ten years should be very concerning. You can argue that they were not “true” hurricanes however the cost of the damage caused by these speaks for itself. In any case if the right synoptic conditions present themselves then yes NYC can get hit by a Major hurricane.

This is the Wreck Road station in Sandys Parish on Bermuda (Davis Network).

That’s not all of it. The station I have been following has been recording wind gusts over 80 mph since 6AM this morning local time. In fact during the 11AM hour the highest wind gust was 95 mph and during the 12PM hour they recorded a gust to 86 mph. Note that they are one hour ahead of us.