Tatamy

This burst of snow for Friday has been showing up for days now in the GEFS and continues to do so.

Would the same be said for the 0z GEFS mean? Some interesting outputs on some of the members.

This is a great post. As someone who came of age in the 70s and 80s it amazes me how people and weenies in particular have come to expect major winter events each year. As you stated during the period from 69-93 there only three storms that produced over a foot in NYC. Back in those days storms that were forecast to produce 4-8” were a big deal and if you had one of those in a winter that was a lot. This region has a long term climate history and it is not one where big events (MECS/SECS/HECS) are common. White Christmases are the exception, not the rule here. We have had a good run in recent years with these big events however long term climatology dictates that this not likely to continue.

That was the one. It was close to 60 at midnight where I was before the transition.

What you just described did actually happen in the area on 2/2/76. SLP bombed out on an arctic front just east of ACY that morning. There are few here that are old enough to remember that one however it was quite spectacular while it lasted. The pressure at my location on the north shore fell to 966 mb with heavy rain going to freezing rain, sleet, and ultimately blizzard conditions for a time with continuous lightning and thunder.

Drive up 115 from Wilkes Barre to the PA Tpke interchange. You go from about 400’ to 2000’ above MSL where the interchange is. Weather conditions will be a different world at the top of that mountain in the winter.

Rain 35•

Light flurries 33• 1.5” new OTG

My bad- it was the 0z.

Next Friday on the Euro

Steady fall of parachutes. 32•

Getting a steady fall of parachutes.

Steady snow falling here. 32•

Steady snow falling here. 32•

As of now I would agree that forecasted snow amounts are going to bust in a lot of places.

Mix of snow/sleet here in Bethlehem Twp.

Mixed snow/sleet 31/25

Depends on your location. If you are in the NYC area you will only see rain that develops this afternoon.

It did tick cooler. Expected snowfall amounts in your area increased some.

It’s to be determined.

I give you guys a lot of credit with these long range progs. I am dealing with an event out here today and the models literally cannot tell me if I am going to be throwing ice melt on my driveway or dragging the snow blower out of the shed just 6 hours from now.

Snow is breaking out on the west side of Allentown currently. Looks to be coming down moderately as shown on radar / webcams to the west of there.

Models are really struggling with the snowfall gradient across NW NJ and the Lehigh Valley of PA. Compare the 0z and the 6z Euro. The 6z HRRR and the 12z HRRR are another pair to look at.

Precip in the form of snow and sleet now starting to break out in the Reading area of PA and areas south of there.

The model is seeing strong lift in the atmosphere which is producing heavier precip. This in turn is bringing colder air down from aloft and changing the precip to snow.