Tatamy
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Everything posted by Tatamy
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Atmosphere has popped directly over me and it’s pouring. Models since yesterday have been insistent on at least a half inch of rain here with some calling for over an inch. I am already at a half inch with this downpour. Mt. Holly has issued a SSW for my area. Just some rumbles currently.
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86 here. Hottest day so far this year.
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Severe Thunderstorm Warning for the cell arriving now.
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We are starting off the day out here with a loud booming thunderstorm. This definitely looks to be an interesting severe day. These cells are rolling east quickly into NJ too.
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Heavy snow showers/ squalls currently moving across northern and northeastern PA and into the western Catskills.
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I am currently seeing snow falling along I80 (heavy in places) for many miles to the north and west of State College. If you are up there in elevation across NE PA, NW NJ, and in places especially from Orange Cty north and west I think you have a real shot to wake up to some snow on the ground (HRRR is on board). This Arctic front certainly does mean business.
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Rates have picked up out here too. Visibility at 1 mile with a temp of 32.0
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How much snow did you get at your place in the Poconos?
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And you were worried about getting snow yesterday up there! Models hit your area fairly well and they seem to be verifying.
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Light flurries here. 33.5
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Wet snow is also falling in the higher elevations of the Poconos above about 1100’.
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Mt. Holly cancels the WSW for Warren and Morris Counties and issues a WWA for these counties. A new snow map has been issued.
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Latest Mt. Holly snowmap
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There’s a lot of reasons to sell it.
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Looks like it does.
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Morris County? How about Warren County? That’s another one. I think this reflects the difficulty inherent in the technology they use in terms of issuing a warning for part of the County. The idea is for the user to look at location specific forecasts which do account for elevation and how that impacts local snow amounts.
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This is their latest snow map. I am not so sure about snow amounts of 6-10” as far south as I-78 (I am assuming that refers to places west of I287). That might be a stretch. In any case the map does do a good job of matching elevated areas to increased snow amounts.
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Is there a big difference in elevation there?
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12z HREF
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If you see significant snow it will be overnight and into tomorrow. The precip today in NJ was modeled as being rain which is what you are seeing. The place to be is where the banding sets up. We’ll have a clearer idea on that later. The thinking has been and continues to be that will be at places along and north of I80/I287.
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This is a screenshot of the IVT currently positioned over central NJ. Precip amounts in that area near Bridgewater are over 0.20” in places.
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Going to be a crazy gradient by you with this event. Do you know what your elevation is?
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This one will go down as a prototypical elevation event. Places like Boston and the CT River Valley will get much less than surrounding higher terrain. In the Boston area the place to be will be north and west of 128. Like you said coastal areas don’t look too good with this event.
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Depends on where the IVT sets up shop. Most models have the heavier precip with it falling as snow in the Poconos and Catskills. For the LV it depends upon precip rates and amounts. As you said we are in a no man’s land being too far west to see much from the synoptic precip from SLP over the Atlantic and too far south and too low in elevation to see much snow from the IVT.
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Looks like the nascent stage of the IVT is setting up across western NJ and SE PA. Light rain and a few melting snowflakes falling here. 34.5
