powderfreak

Was thinking you’d enjoy the feel out there… rain cooled 64F but the storms also raised the dews up near 60F. Feels a bit muggy, windows and sliders open. Decent light left to the day at 7pm even with clouds and convection.

Summer vibe. Max 77F. Currently 73F with rolling thunder for the past hour or so from the storms on the west side and Champlain Valley. Slowly crossing the spine and approaching from the SW of Mount Mansfield.

It seems reasonable though, no? ALB is 81-82F too. I guess it’s not egregious. BDL has stalled at 81-82F past two hours. Maybe just mixed out faster? Seems to have gotten there quicker but the others are catching up. In the 5-min data, BAF is now 82F to BDL 81F. AQW is 81F at 650ft.

Actually just had a brief shower but first time of the year it felt like a warm rain if that makes any sense. Big drops, no super chilly wet-bulb drop.

Might have hit 70F up here today.

Ah I didn’t realize SNH sites were so normal in April. Yeah that’s two months of about spot on normal then there. We were more +1 to +3 in the next zone inland from the Atlantic.

Snowpack slightly below normal at elevation thanks to the positive departures. 23” on an average 30”. Photo from Spruce Peak, across the Notch and 2 miles from the recorded Mansfield Stake. It takes a lot of thermal energy to melt the QPF rich snowpack above 3,000ft… even in a mild spring.

Yeah you Logan folks haven’t had the best month. Crazy you guys are -1.5 there near the water while ORH to BDL is like +2 to +4.

Yeah especially this time of year. Feel like autumn it’s more likely NW, more likely SE in spring. Follows the ocean thermals?

Yeah colder 850s down S/E.

Today maxed at 64F and min of 39F. Spot on exactly normal for May 11th at MVL (64/39) and this area. +3.7 on the month.

Yeah wasn’t necessarily talking about you, just quoted it. Just how out of whack the general public is theses days with regards to “normal”… especially considering it’s the “new” 30-year normals too the past couple years.

lol we are running just shy of +4 up here at all three BTV/MVL/MPV and people are like “it’s been a cool May”… If we get a legit -3 type month (any month of the year) people will think the world is ending. Its comical how far people’s tolerances or impressions of normal temperatures have strayed.

I was thinking about that… it seems like just the same air mass at 850mb as we had all winter, ha. Even out through tomorrow… +2 to -2C at 850mb was basically winter this year, but just with the May sun angle now as you said.

Another February morning.

Friend’s cell phone shots from Waterbury, VT.

Not even close up here. We can’t get a month even near normal. It’s worth noting that the past 6 months of ridiculous temperature departures are based off the most recent normals, which were stepwise warmer than the old normals. So these departures would be solidly higher than they have been if compared against the past 30-year dataset we knew in the 2010s. This first 30% of May… BTV… +5.1 MVL… +5.0 MPV… +4.9 Yet another month in progress that will be a torch. Champlain Valley to interior sites east of the Spine. Radiator or not. Doesn’t matter. It’s +5 through the first third of May. Not even close to normal or below. +8 to +10 over winter months has mellowed to +5. A true below normal pattern would make folks think an ice age is coming.

Shut ‘em down, ha. This evening at 5pm I found myself on Spruce Peak with the dog. Looking over at the fabled Nosedive. Nosedive is holding in there for 1,300 vertical feel, but the lower 700 feet (out of view) becomes a problem. Especially the lower 400 feet. It’s crazy that snow is only made on this trail for like a 4-day period during the winter. Just a single snowmaking run during a midweek period to build the base. I’ve always wondered how this trail would be with the Superstar treatment. It would last a long time. You think the natural snowpack is getting to 7-8 feet, add in multiple weeks of snowmaking and this top 1,300 verts would make it to June every year.

To be honest looking at models should be rewarded on some level over using imagination or making up the weather you want too. It’s a fine line.

Yeah I remember some model guidance posted, but DIT is on a heater of a smear campaign of NWS lately . In general though if you follow these rules regardless of the pattern you’re odds are better than 50-50: Winter… Warm. Spring… Warm. Summer… Warm. Fall… Warm.

Turned into a surprisingly nice afternoon here.

He’s around, we chatted about some of those storms off forum.

What a vibe there. Fresh.

My folks are in Woodstock and said they had large hail earlier. Of course that was as much detail as I could get out of them, ha.

Really nice booms coming from just to the north. Sounds like summer, ha.