powderfreak

The popular one locally from Ten Bends is Cream Puff War... that seems to be taking off and they are dangerous... go down really easily for the alcohol content, ha. If you see it I'd recommend it.

I've been trying for 5 minutes to figure out what he was trying to say. Anyway, what a stunning summer evening out there. 72/68 right now. The humidity certainly shot up after this morning's 2/3rds of an inch of rain, but temperatures are comfy. Only clouds left seem to be tied like balloons right over the high terrain.

I love that you can get Ten Bends down there. I know the guys that started that real well... one was an accountant at a hotel I worked at at the time and he always had the dream of brewing beer. They started in his garage and the place they brew in Morrisville is still pretty small. Love good success stories like that where now you know the product down there.

Swing for the fences every time. Once in a while he’ll hit one all the way into the river outside the ballpark in Cincinnati. But you rack up 200 strikeouts along the way.

Your high cannot be more than 68F today... Stem low was 59F and max 68F. Doesn’t scream summer but dews do look like they are 64-68F. You really do only care about dews, haha.

This is only the 9th summer of Dew debate. One group using model data which is based on dews at ASOS stations, and another who wants to use the Davis dews.

Damn bear got our compost again last night. What a mess. I’m going to have to build a concrete frame that he can’t just dismantle when he wants to eat.

Sunday is going to be hot. NWS has BTV at 97F on Sunday... even SLK at 1650ft pegged for 90F.

It poured for a while here with thunder earlier. Looks like a good half inch to an inch locally. 0.64”

Yeah that would be a huge winter here. We had 150-160" here in the village between 2 sites in 2010-11. That seasonal snowfall map looked like a NW flow model prog when it was all done. 2000-01 would probably be at that level of 175" locally at this level, with over 400" in former ski area measurements. It's a huge season.

Same around here... town homes seem to be the big desire. A few have popped up locally in the past year after a dearth of development. Now we just got a notice for a selectboard hearing for a gravel/sand pit area that's oddly hidden pretty well near here in town along the river and Rec Path that they are looking to turn into 15 new townhouse units.

You had a rough go of it the second half of last summer, IIRC. Always forecasting dews, struggling to hit the mark. Then again, your forecasts will suffer every year where summer trends drier in dews, but you'll nail every forecast in a summer that wants to be humid. It's a unique way of going about it... go big or go home.

Yeah that sounds about right. In my head I sort of lump you guys in with up to Dryslot's area, as I bet Dryslot has more in common with ORH snowfall than he does with Vermont at the same latitude. The snowfall climatology in the northeast seems to run in SW to NE axis, mirroring the coastline. Like up here we often share storms that deliver NW of ALB, more than we do with say far N.NY or Massena despite the similar latitude. I know you know this, ha, just speaking out loud. The main point though is what you made, if one region really does well, the other normally does pretty good too. Relative to normal as a percentage, I still think SNE often gets the nod in those "good/great" winters. Like 120% snowfall up here is a huge winter and I bet when that happens, it's not uncommon for BOS/BDL/ORH to have at least 120% of normal, maybe more. That's probably a pretty poor metric though to compare, as standard deviations would be more useful. Maybe that's where I'm stuck at, looking at it as a percentage of normal snowfall... it's hard to beat the non-immediate coastal SNE stations in that metric during a good winter.

73/60 here... we've been under pretty stout stratus layer this afternoon and evening. Not going to drop with a decent southerly flow mixing 20-25mph gusts even in the valley. You guys out east should enjoy a cooler evening tonight, almost like CAD ahead of the next round of precip and southerly flow, ha.

Ha, of course. That’s not what I meant with jackpots. I’m talking like I feel like in a slightly warmer regime we have less of a chance of getting 2-3” of sand while other folks get 18-24”. Not necessarily jackpots but just being even in the game in individual storms vs a season long slow build up. Sometimes you just want a good CCB dropping 1” QPF in 6 hours... I liked 2010-11.... that January while SNE was cleaning up we were at least doing 8-12’s in those storms. It does seem though like NNE gets above normal snows residually when SNE gets smoked, but it’s sort of like HubbDave “mehing” 2015’s 100+ inches at his place lol.

That’s an appropriate description, ha. Whenever you think winter is going bad, just let me break open the photos from 15-16 and you’ll suddenly feel all warm and fuzzy with only 4-6” on the ground.

Hahaha, making the rounds. Come and do snowmobile burnouts in our brown lawns as a thank you.

Yeah that's gotta be it. I've never been up there, but Jerry can have the entire forum up there for a winter getaway. Only $20,000/month payments! That is actually dirt cheap for that thing, ha. $3.5 million?! There's a listing from 2013 for $6.9 million.

Haha, yeah. Old timers hanging outside the ski bars... shaking their mugs like begging for coins. It truly is amazing for that spot to be so snowless. Especially the Christmas time period. We opened the summer zip line down from the top of the Gondola for Christmas break! That's one you tell the grandkids someday.

Welcome to Christmas in the NNE Mtns that year, Phin. Only time since 1954 without even a trace of snow at the Mansfield COOP. I honestly never thought it was possible to do before 2015. I mean, at 4000ft there isn't even ice bulges on the cliffs, nothing at all. Not even a drift. Just bare ground straight to the summits. It might as well have been mid-October. We'll never see anything like that again is my guess.

In the past 25 years at Stowe, there hasn’t been another winter within even 75” of that one. We got 154”. The next closest contestant in 25 years is like 2011-12 with 246”.

Ha I'm with you. I've been on the +1 train for a while but Will has always been able to show that as a wrong assumption with BTV data, but their climo definitely probably favors cold in the valley. Maybe the difference is we tend to "jackpot" more in a +1 to +2 or something regime because we are on the gradient line.... maybe it's snowier on the whole in a colder regime? But I still think we have a better chance of being in the sweet spot of storms in a bit warmer pattern.... ie last winter. But last winter's overall snowfall wasn't great, but we jacked in quite a few storms, haha. Even got a couple CCBs which seem rare up here. It probably has more to do with a jackpot or sweet spot of individual storms vs. overall seasonal snowfall total.

My college girlfriend was from Boxford... I remember spending a bunch of time there over 3 years. They got absolutely pummeled in a few storms around 2005 time frame. It seemed like every single big storm the Topsfield/Danvers/Boxford/Ipswich was 24-36" for a time there from like 2003-2005.

Jerry can buy up next to the Kellogg mansion at 1,900ft in elevation in Stowe. This shot from two evenings ago that I took just happened to have that house in it. High on the left shoulder is what looks like a hotel to most people (they always ask what hotel that is) but it's really an 18,000 square foot monstrosity known as the Kellogg mansion, owned by those who got rich off cereal and snack food. Phin made a great choice in Randolph as a home like his would've cost him 3x that amount here. The only reason I can afford such a central location in the center of restaurants/bars/recreation path, on the river right on Mountain Road is because we got in at 2011... right after the recession and housing bubble burst. We got in during some of the lowest real estate prices the town of Stowe has seen in decades. Around that time, getting a mortgage on a 1,300 square foot townhome was about the same cost as paying rent so it was a no-brainer. Since then the value has rebounded an incredible 30-40% for this central location. Now with COVID, the real estate agents around here are talking like it's similar to post-9/11 with an ever increasing demand of folks looking to leave the city or get a place away from the city. The next couple years of real estate will be interesting given the economic repercussions of COVID, but countered with a demand to leave the city.

High quality post, Tip. Thanks for that one. Maybe it is deserving of its own heat thread. Looks like we've got another round of high end heat coming.