powderfreak

Precip has started as snow up here at 3,000ft.

12z EURO was decent again. Over a half inch frozen liquid.

The peaks do fine in most events to be honest... I personally like 1+ as that gets snow into town on this side usually. 0.5-0.75 usually doesn’t get much more than flurries in town and puts the snow over in Jericho and Underhill on west side. 0.75-1.25 is usually a good sweet spot for the peaks. To me most of the Froude is to determine what inhabited areas get more snow, like RT 100 corridor east side or the west slope communities. Sharply rising Froude to me also signals for cellular squally weather that can go way downstream into E.VT even.

Jeez.... the 4km BTV output is signaling a big event if this is the first part tomorrow. Those 850mb temps are in the sweet spot for great snow growth...most of the better UVVs are just above the ridge crests in that 850-750mb level, so I typically use -10C as a ballmark temp for the sweet spot. I've found our best events do come with 850mb temps in that low negative teens range. Monday morning into early afternoon it wants to rip 0.05"/hr water at -8C to -12C and Froude numbers are quite high indicating unblocked flow, should allow for good eastward movement of the precipitation downwind of the barrier. This model has some significant QPF for the northern Greens just through Monday evening before the Monday night/Tuesday morning event swings through. Wind direction at 290-300 degrees is right in that sweet spot too. Really nothing to complain about on this output. The sharply rising Froude number after 16z indicates more squally weather to me as depth of mixing increases. Probably becomes more cellular with graupel tomorrow afternoon before the first wave shuts down.

I'm looking for 2-3" at home and maybe 6" at the office at 1,500ft.

Visiting winter on the Upper East Side. It is very obvious this time of year how well the east slope preserves snow...and shows how the Stowe side of Mansfield builds such a deep snowpack only seeing direct sunlight in the morning hours (coldest part of the day). The sunsets up here at like 1PM (goes into the shadows) so that it is getting zero sunlight during the warmest part of the day in the afternoon. The east side of Mansfield looked a lot more wintry than anywhere around here, much lower residual snow level too. There was coatings of snow as low as 1,800ft on the east slope while over at south facing Spruce it looked like that level was 3,000ft for any sign of winter. Avoiding afternoon sunlight does wonders for snow preservation, ha.

For sure, I don't think this will be as elevation dependent except the first wave maybe? I think 2-4"/3-6" is possible for the lower elevations surrounding the Spine and in the Spine. I full expect it to be the first widespread accumulating snow in the inhabited areas around here.

BTV AFD going all in: Through the 48-hour period total snowfall will range from a dusting to an inch below 1000 feet, 4-6" from 1000-2000 feet across the Adirondacks and central/northern VT and approaching a foot at the highest peaks.

Cold afternoon up on the shaded East Side.

00z NAM gone wild. Good consensus for widespread snow in these model runs, but likely only advisory levels. Fun to look at though. The northern slopes of the Adirondacks, through the northern Greens and northern Presidentials, all set up to get a measurable snowfall.

My father spent over three decades working as an emergency physician in a couple ER's.... and I know he saw a lot of patients that did not need to go to the ER. People go to the hospital for very benign things, which is so much more common than true life or death situations. He always used to say fevers were one of the biggest reasons to go to the ER, despite most people just needing to stay in bed for a day or two and take some over-the-counter meds. The hospitals can be pretty busy most of the time, well before any pandemic.

This morning's view rolling into work.

34F with some stray wet flakes as it ends at 750ft.

I think we've been about identical all day. Just a brutal cold rain at 1,500ft when I've watched it snow up above all day. I did just drive into the notch before it got dark and it's snowing steadily with accumulations starting around 2,000ft. Road is still wet but temp was 32F... the State might shut 'er down tonight if it gets too icy up in those narrow switchbacks.

And boy do they know their audience. That's awesome. You'll never see that from any other Weather Forecast Office.

GFS looks like a nice little event Sun-Tue in several waves.

Trails are white down to 2,500ft. Snowflakes must be making it a bit below that elevation too but not sticking. We’ll see if we flip over at 1500ft here before 5pm.

Could also be a snowpack type of deal too from driving through. It's really hard to judge annual snowfall from the snowpack as we know around here. Places that get half the actual "snowfall" can still have bigger snowpacks in that CAD region south east of Pinkham Notch. It's still "snowy" in that regard, but it's really hard to judge snowfall without actually measuring it every day. Like you drive through Tamarack's area and someone might be like holy crap, this place gets the most snowfall of anywhere around. Basically it's a "deep winter" type of place, the actual inches that come from the sky might be different.

Looks like snow started falling up high right from the get-go. Half inch at 3,000ft on Mansfield so far. Just -RN down here at 1,500ft.

Sounds identical to this area this morning. No snow visible until 1,300ft and then at 1,400-1,500ft arriving at work there was some snow on elevated surfaces, mulch beds, planters, that sort of stuff. It was sort of funny in that there wouldn't be any snow on the actual ground, but if a tree had fallen over there would be snow on that tree trunk. You'd only see snow on elevated stuff just off the forest floor, like stumps, downed trees, etc.

Light dusting on roof tops, pumpkins and the mulch beds up here at the mountain.

Heavy rime ice on the trees at the ski area last night and today. A few brief breaks in the sky and direct sunlight got pretty bright earlier. Rare to see the trees so white and no snow on the trails. Though I do think the upper elevations had some snow grains falling with the rime. The rime level was around 2,500ft.

Awesome! Yeah I remember for sure. Always enjoyed your posts and thoughts. So great to add another MET to the NNE crew. Looking forward to your obs and posts. We are expanding our coverage up here!

That is nuts!

Hey dude! I remember you for sure! Great to see that name. Were you in the BGM area at one point? Trying to remember your old posting location. Thats great to see a familiar name from the EUSWX or earlier times. Some -SN in Burlington per a video I just saw. Snow showers moving in.