powderfreak

Man, Crested Butte in Colorado got smoked. Still green leaves and 26F in +SN, lol.

Ah yeah if that’s the case then lol. I just didn’t see any comparison at all to anything else in that study, just a vacuum look at Sturgis. But these days I guess nothing is truly in a vacuum. I’ll have to read up on their past work, I’m sure Twitter is highly entertaining on this too, haha.

Yeah I didn’t read the study trying to make that point or reference a comparison to any other type of gathering. I don’t agree with its numbers but even just mentioning a possible study of Sturgis, people seem to assume the authors have said it was worse than other things? University spread seems like it may be similar... certain schools are getting decimated and sent home where it happens.

Yeah it would be from the bars and indoor stuff if it’s there. The outdoor stuff is a hard sell. Close proximity, indoors, no masks, I mean we saw what that one wedding in Maine did recently. The party at Killington recently. If it happens, it happens indoors.

Casper, Wyoming. Not bad for September 8th.

26F with steady snow falling... Chamber of Commerce day in September for ski country, ha. Even snow blowing off the roof into the camera view, looks like dry powder.

Some sun would be nice if it’s going to be warm. This reminds me of a winter torch when if it’s going to be +10 at least make it sunny.... two days of mid-level dirt so it’s warm and dark all day, ha.

It’s like modeling how much money in American health care costs are a result of the fast food industry...maybe this number? Maybe that number? Who knows? But the headline will be good: “Study finds the Fast Food Industry responsible for $100 billion in health care costs and accelerated the deaths of X number of Americans annually.” Modeling costs of negative externalities Is tough.

Any modeling is based on a decent amount of assumptions of behavior, from climate to health to economic models, so definitely use caution in any of those. It’s just another preliminary study that will evolve over time as it gets reviewed. The problem is it’s just such a sensitive topic right now that it’s almost impossible for anyone to read it in a truly objectively, IMO. At least it’s weather relevant factoring in temperature and precip to estimate indoor vs outdoor traffic . Ygcst=β +β Sturgis +β Temp +β Precip + β 'Xst+α +τt +εgct

Ha, don’t think so? I bet up here the month is back below normal by next Monday. Sitting at -0.5 coming into today.

80/62 here... average high of 73F. Definitely warm. Month has started out below normal but the next couple days might briefly flip it positive. Looks below normal after this too... maybe we can get a below normal September?

Ha, yeah I’m an idiot for leaving that out. Temps seem like they’d be pretty important. Not sure why I was assuming a 32-34F type air mass. I figure anytime you get into the 20s it’s gonna stick fine.

I feel like we have a pretty good handle on the warm ground stuff... -SN at 2.5 mile vis this time of year is just wet, maybe grassy coating. Anything with sustained visibility of a mile or under will stick. Especially that stuff that occurred overnight in Wyoming. I’m not sure if visibility is a better measure or liquid equivalent per hour is...but those are what matters.

Broomfield, CO was 90F at the 5pm obs yesterday.... 5:47am this morning they are at 2.5sm -SN. That is wild. Under 13 hours from 90F to snowing.

Not sure I’d agree... Wyoming doesn’t strike me as a place that taxes the crap out of their residents... I’m not sure they go for that out there. And you need to tax a small population a lot to have nice things. Bigger tax base, the more you have. Anyway, mild morning at a low of 55F.

Yeah sign us up for anomalous weather, we’d take that all day long. It’s not like deep winter is setting in in September... they’ll be wearing shorts again in like 3 days.

This graphic out of CBS in Denver is like some Game of Thrones world. Way up NW will be freezing cold, then we will have land of fire, then winter snow, then more fire...

Oh for sure. The mind remembers what it wants to.

It’s definitely a first world problem... I don’t think any other country cares about lawns like Americans do. I remember a J1 visa student when I worked at Topnotch Resort ask why we waste so much land on grass and shouldn’t we have gardens instead of lawns? No sir, we are prosperous enough that where other cultures grow their food, we spend several hours out of our busy lives making sure these grass blades are all uniform in height and dark green in color .

Ha it’s true... I also have these memories as a kid of apple picking in legit fall weather and I’m sure it’s selective memory but the past decade it seems like you have the A/C on in the car when you go to get cider donuts and apples .

Yeah that definitely looks like Augusta National golf course, but try again next year. It sucks but out of our control. Hopefully we don’t develop a pattern but seems every summer there are drought concerns.

It’s just a lawn. There will be other lawns in your life.

It just seems early to go totally down on winter... as you well know, all you need is stuff to align for 4-6 weeks of fun and you can see a snow year of yore. January 2011 type month can make or break a winter.

That might be a good thing. Tip can probably analyze why, but it’s always better to go in an underdog and win, then it is to go in a heavy favorite and lose. I feel like when those seasonal models look like an epic gangbusters winter, it’s only a recipe for disappointment.

Ha, yeah I remember not even being able to walk around my house or take the dog out without those crampon/tracks you wear over your boots, same idea as chains over car tires. Just inches of clear ice as ground cover.