powderfreak

EPS 12z snow.

That’s a big change though from 00z EURO. That’s a real juicy storm.

Nice trend there for sure. Stein?

Can’t undo it. The EPS ensembles has those type of solutions scattered about. Lower probability but guess not completely off the table.

Ah I didn’t need to see that lol.

For sure. Get used to that, lol. Why we always say we'll take precip over cold up this way. You are now in the land where QPF is what generally matters, even in October.

And Will/ORH is holding the pre-season training camp over in Ballroom C from 1-4pm for all that are interested. Starting with stretching and some light agility training.

Gotta get that dopamine rush

Talk about being all over the place, ha.

6z EPS

I didn’t see anything sticking down in town but up here the view at the office is of snowy trees.

Nice! I didn’t see anything sticking down in town but up here the view at the office is of snowy trees.

First light snow obs of the season up here at the ASOS. Small granular flakes. KMVL 261006Z AUTO 21006KT 4SM -SN SCT022 BKN029 OVC039 02/M01

Euro Ensembles giving us 30% chances of 6”< with the Day 5 system... thats not nothing at this time frame. You back up north?

Didn't sniff freezing up high today. Cold vibe with icicles and rime ice.

Interesting to still see occasionally interesting outcomes at Day 5 now. It’s not completely in la la land.

A legit air mass... 1pm and 41/23 with a breeze in the valley. 26F at the picnic tables. Definitely feels like a snow column outside if any rouge shower were to move through.

Pitcher also failed to back up the catcher, as soon as that ball is hit to the outfield he should be running behind the catcher to backup the play at the plate...instead he’s standing in no mans land in front of home plate. It was a pure little league play, ha.

That was one of the craziest things I’ve watched. Two outs, bottom of the 9th... the “Double Buckner” they call it.

Pretty detailed BTV AFD/area forecast discussion regarding the short term system. .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 PM EDT Saturday...Positive thickness advection and an influx of deep moisture should produce abundant clouds and light precipitation on Monday. Temperatures at the onset of precipitation should be cool enough to allow for some wintry precipitation. Portions of the Northeast Kingdom and areas at or above 2000ft agl should see some snow at the onset, followed by transition to a wintry mix, and then rain. Forecast soundings around Saranac Lake, NY and Nulhegan, VT have fairly complex thermal profile with the inversion far aloft around 7000ft agl only just above freezing with a layer below freezing sandwiched in between wet-bulb temperatures near freezing at the surface. Elsewhere, depth of warmer air is greater and stronger, which would make for a cold rain. Overall, the best forcing and precipitation takes place in the afternoon, with profiles becoming above freezing with a quick transition towards rain (except perhaps across the far northeast corner of Vermont). Thus, it looks like a fairly damp and cool Monday with forecast highs in the mid 40s. For such a weak low, the precipitation it produces is impressive, aided by the deep-level of saturation and good isentropic lift. Cross isobaric flow at potential temperatures of 295K should lift moisture from around 850mb to 780mb with relative ease. Rainfall totals of 0.25"-0.50" seems likely. Weak surface low deepens as it departs eastwards. Some northwesterly flow should allow precipitation to linger higher peaks and near the foothills with semi-blocked flow and higher relative humidities remaining. The DGZ becomes unsaturated, though, and would likely not produce anything high quality from the departing system. Overnight lows expected to fall into the 30s.

I could see analyzing a 1-2 hour period of wintry precip before rain down there in mid-winter. Sort of like a perpetual NNE October/November all winter long. Anyway, over by you and Alex has the best chance as starting as some snow or wintry mix with the WAA moving in aloft initially over a very marginally cold air mass.

Short term, I wonder if we can start as a very brief period of snow on Monday morning. I’ve seen it on a few models here and there over the past couple days. Soundings look pretty isothermal and it hits at a favorable part of the day around sunrise to 12z from here and points NE into N.NH/W.ME.

Short term, I wonder if we can start as a very brief period of snow on Monday morning. I’ve seen it on a few models here and there over the past couple days. Soundings look pretty isothermal and it hits at a favorable part of the day around sunrise to 12z from here and points NE into N.NH/W.ME.

Pretty crazy that at 5am it was 64F and we slept all night with windows and doors open (almost turned the fan on).... while at 3pm it was 44F. Exact opposite of the normal diurnal swing. It’s been a cold afternoon.

Cold day up high! Wind chill in the teens. Full winter clothing needed at the picnic tables.