powderfreak
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Everything posted by powderfreak
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I thought this would be the one to get you guys going. Never saw *this* big of a NW swing to bring mixed up to here. Certainly been a tough go of it around the PWM/LEW areas since that mid-level band crush job in what, December?
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P-type plots... gets the mix line right to my doorstep. Possibly another Champlain Valley jackpot... the actual valley has had a couple rare wins lately.
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For sure, weenies everywhere that night. Was only supposed to snow above like 2,000ft but then 0.20”/hr water for like 3-4 hours had it flash over to heavy wet snow straight to the valley floor. That was a textbook May dynamic cooling event last spring up this way.
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18z GFS definitely mixes us... looks like 800mb is where the warmth is centered around +1C for a time. I much prefer the PARA GFS, a couple degrees colder through the column and a nice upslope response on Tuesday night.
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Last May we had a day up here where it was around 60F at like 11:30am and I was hiking with the dog in shorts...then had 2” of paste fall that evening while cooking dinner in an isothermal CCB.
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Looks like a good call at this point.
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Snowy two weeks on the EPS.
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We take that Euro run. Axis straight through the heart of BTV CWA.
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Valentines Day 2007 will always be my true love.
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BTV's forecast map...
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Still looking like a nice synoptic 6-12” swath across the northern tier. Remarkably large area of very similar totals being spit out around 8-9”.
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00z GFS puts down some snow.
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Gradient is closer. Still a decent amount of time left at a solid 48 hours out.
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Definitely a sign of heat escaping and melting on the eaves. But oh so wintry.
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I see a mix of gutters and no gutters around here. Your ice dams look pretty impressive on that place in the corners, ha. Those are some decent icicles. I love the look of death icicles though, stuff that when they fall your definitely dying if underneath lol. Very wintry looking.
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That’s a real nice Euro run.
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All or nothing all the time... AONATT.
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Awesome shots showing depth, but this one is what I talk about where no matter how deep it gets you can’t tell. Need to dig a trench through the woods to get the scale, ha. Deep winter in the North Country!
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Euro wants to take the Grid down there.
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Let’s go. Euro GFS
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I CON accept this next week.
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The PA spots looking good, up through NYC and the southern tier of NY east through Albany and southern New England (maxing out at ORH and Bridgeport) with a high percentage of annual snowfall to date. BOS and PVD doing decent. BTV and PWM around average (1.3" and 1.7" off normal pace respectfully). In the annual snowfall records, so far to date its looking like an average to above average snow season relative to standard departures at most climo sites in the northeast.
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18z EURO looked like it was going good places in NNE at the end of the run. It is a long way out though, still time to trend it into a cutter or suppression depression.
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Yeah -1.5F at nearest PWS and -2F at MVL as of 7:30pm. Gonna be a real cold night.
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Workable up this way.
