powderfreak

Maybe wrong way to say it… the hyperbole and aggressive calls at times. You keep the place entertaining, it’s a good thing. You nailed this one today with not expecting much severe into SNE.

This cracked me up, you do have some hilarious comments once in a while when in character. This cold front is lagging behind for sure... still humid, slider doors open at 64/63.

Waterville Valley, NH now getting 60mph velocities at like 4,000ft it looks like.

Didn’t it look like southern ME would be best? Might be some time yet. I thought TOR was more SE of the mtns, looks to be moving that direction soon so we’ll see.

The Mansfield Summit station finally updated from the past hour. Check out that 5 minute increase. 2:10pm it's gusting near 30mph, and then 2:15pm reading is gusting near 80mph. There's the downburst.

Areas affected...portions of northern NJ...southern NY...CT...and MA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 151904Z - 152100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential is increasing across parts of far northern NJ/southern NY into MA. A new severe thunderstorm watch may be needed. DISCUSSION...A narrow corridor of increasing severe potential exists from far northern NJ into MA ahead of ongoing strong/severe convection further to the north/northwest. This corridor has experienced strong heating today, with temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 80s amid 65-70 F dewpoints, yielding MLCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg. Visible satellite shows a broad area of agitated CU, with stronger vertical development across parts of southern NY/northern NJ as well as near the MA/VT/NH border. Stronger ascent will remain north of the area, so it is unclear if any storms will develop ahead of the slowly east/northeastward moving bands of convection further to the northwest. However, a southeastward-advancing outflow boundary is noted from Delaware to Rensselaer Counties in southeast NY and may provide enough focus for additional development across/moving into the MCD area. Vertical shear does decrease with southward extent across New England, but effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kts is more than sufficient to maintain organized cells/clusters in a moderately unstable airmass. As such, a severe threat could spread south of WW 501 and WW 502 in the next couple of hours and a new watch may be needed. ..Leitman/Thompson.. 09/15/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

Yeah, I was doubting this morning but caught a pocket of Phil… thing blew up coming over the mountain.

52mph on an Ambient wx station in the base area. No idea the accuracy but it felt it. Was torrential rain but then in the middle of the rain just this pulse of high wind moved through that lasted maybe 20 seconds or so. Might have been the best storm I’ve seen this summer just for that 20 second pulse of wind in the downpour.

Just got destroyed at the ski area. Trees down. Velocity data showing some 50+ mph downburst on the east slope.

MVL spiked to 79/68 with some sunshine... nothing like that up at 1,500ft under thick mountain cloud ceiling but maybe a sign of some instability if the valley can punch near 80F with any sunshine.

Up to 79/68 at MVL.... certainly no where near that at the ski area in thick clouds. But maybe some signs of some instability if the sunny breaks in the valley are getting near 80F. 3km NAM rocks here in a few hours.

69/65 Just like July… 60s and rain.

Seems like today's SVR potential is slightly less, especially up this way. Or maybe it's more discrete. Lots of clouds and some morning showers/t-storms that likely mean it's further SE when the line really gets going. The simulated radar progs are a county or two SE with development of it today than they were last night.

Yeah looks like just SE of here it starts to really ramp up. The composite radar progs really go nuts between like GFL/ALB to LEB and ENE to between LCI/BML. If we could slow the front down to like 4pm instead of 1-2pm here, that would work too.

Glorious weather continues. 40s by night and 70s by day is why September is awesome.

2006...open it up on Thanksgiving, keep it open through Christmas.

Yeah my guess is that idea those charts run 5-8F too cold is hyperbole mixed in with not recognizing that a week or more out you’ll get changes. Maybe it should be phrased more as they aren’t 5F too cold but more that models are under-estimating the heights and what comes with that in the day 7-10 range.

Sweaty Columbus Day? Leaf peepers looking at hazy vistas?

I could definitely see long range model data being too cold as a climo baseline… all year round. So I could see the charts showing model data that those models run cold especially week two.

I find that hard to believe given it’s literal model data. It’s the Euro ensembles… it’s not even like the GFS OP. It’s not some cold algorithm so must be a reason the ensembles are missing by that much. That sounds like a concern for the developers. I wish we could actually run a verification but we’ll never know just guessing at it.

The first week looks pretty good. Shocking a model Day 7-14 prog was off. BDL and ORH both below normal to date, now a warm period coming. Looks like the EURO from a week ago had warmth around the 15th but was a bit too muted. I still don’t get what you guys are trying to prove with the attack on model data.

Ha, days of 60s and 70s, nights of 50s. That’s well played. Tip o’ cap . Looks like Mansfield touches the Tolland line too. ORH looks like 70s and 50s so far too... -0.7 on the month. Charts may not be as wrong as some make it seem.

Where do you see cool and BN on that chart Ginxy just posted? Theres literally a climo line on them for easy reference. Almost every day looks to average AN on that prog.

Yeah for me it’s in March and April is the only time… those 55F sunny days in later March are almost euphoric. Aside from spring time coming out of a cold winter, highs in the 50s are pretty un-inspiring to me. Manual labor probably the only thing good about it.

Anything to avoid the highs in the 50-65F range… do 65-85F as long as possible and then jump straight to 40s/20s .