powderfreak

Don't even need to look at anything but wind streamlines, they haven't changed in 4 days.... throw all QPF maps out lol. Gonna get crushed. Sort of like what NW flow does up here with the right synoptic set up. QPF is definitely the least accurate part of it.

Told ya, 10+ a lock from days ago. Never need to worry with east winds there.

Slow start but it's been dumping 1-2"/hr the past couple hours. A very quick 2-3" has landed since about 6am at 1,500ft. Snow level down to the valley floors but nothing down at 750ft other than some slushy whitening.

Late start at 1,500ft... really nothing overnight but it has really turned on with 2-3" in the past 90 minutes or so. We are hitting 2"/hr rates at times after the slow start.

The diurnal minimum tomorrow morning is the time to make hay. Snow levels seem to rise on the models tomorrow afternoon away from the strongest lift and upper level low position. This is going to be fascinating to watch unfold. Nothing seems to have changed in the past few days on the larger scale. Big precipitation event.

There’s going to be some elevation that verifies the weenie maps. Those aren’t wrong at a certain elevation. The 925mb coldest pocket is interior CNE.

There has always been a modeled break between the front end stuff and the deepening of the surface low... it’s been warm too lately. You will need to rip 0.10-0.20” per hour over several hours to get this to snow under 1000-1500ft. The same everywhere, north or south. It’s antecedent mild, with no CAA... just top-down dynamic cooling. Very rate dependent...the cold isn’t just going to “move in.”

Yeah and all adjacent areas... SNH down to Kev. Thing just nukes out. Everyone is just pounding paste with those precip rates. ORH hills 12-18”?

What a fukking crush job in Mass on 6z Euro. Just bombs out and wraps up.

Yeah I haven't seen a solution where SVT from Wilmington/Woodford to Killington doesn't get at least 8-10"+ at 1.5kft to 2kft and higher.

Big elevation storms are not uncommon in NNE. This is the climo we bank on. It feels cheap, stat padder, and late in the season, but it does all fit into the mountain climatology. Seasonal totals are just that... October 1 to June 1. Doesn't matter when it falls to the seasonal total.

Alex Cora is a leader. They love playing for him.

The moisture is going to be there. Deep layer SE feed even up past 300mb. Should end any Stein talk.

Agreed on the 10:1. I don’t think they’ll be that bad for the high terrain. If you flip in the valley it’s like 3:1 white rain. Gotta adjust ratios on those before taking them. Probably should’ve mentioned that. I adjust those maps in my head for elevation ratio changes.

3km NAM is funny. Anything above 1500-2000ft in VT is going to get crushed. I think it’s snow levels are too low but it’s usually decent at showing it. Love the SE flow upslope cooling and sharp downslope rain just west of the Spine.

Yeah but it’s splitting hairs. Anywhere near 2kft is getting 12+ down there.

Juicy 18z HRRR and still going lol.

8-16” IMO above 2,000ft (the KBL is like 2,300ft). I have a hard time seeing how they’d get less than 8” at that elevation and QPF numbers, plus good spot NW of 700mb low track.

Grab another margarita and enjoy Florida . Your property will do fine. No way your neighbor reports less than 10”.

Trust the east flow. 850mb streamlines look great for that area to maximize whatever comes. Even the RGEM that ticked a little SE, this prolonged wind flow can’t be denied in that area of NNH.

Yeah for sure but this is absolutely incredible melt this spring. That’s still a worse season but this is nuts. 2018-19 had 100+ more inches on the ground right now. That’s also a wild variation. This April is sort of like December 2015 in terms of “well, never thought I’d see that” type aspects.

lol this dude is traumatized.

Sugarloaf has bar none the best snow preservation in New England... just so far up there. Best April mountain there is. We are really struggling at Stowe too. I've never seen this before for sure. 13" at the Stake (record low since 1954) and RT 108 through the Notch is open... never had the road open while the Quad is still spinning in the spring. The men and women on the grooming team are putting a band aid on each night and they are the true heroes... it's crazy what those tractors can do farming snow each night.

Go Red Sox. They are clicking right now with 7th straight win. Devers and JD... home runs every game it seems. “Red Sox had 16 hard hit balls on Saturday, 17 on Sunday, day off yesterday, and 18 today. Mashing baseballs.” -Sox Stats

You didn’t expect any snow it seemed from your posts? East trends in New England are common, but this one has the appeal of a north and east outcome up the coast. As a zone that over-performs.