powderfreak

Will! He was a character.

It’s hard to understand why some fight the idea that it can be AN and yet still occasionally frost or have colder periods mixed in with a sea of background mild. Almost like the well-mixed hilltop spots are rooting for warmth knowing they won’t frost anyway until like mid/late October when it’s CAA freezing temps.

Crisp there! 54F here now and 0.39” in the stratus gauge from today’s two rounds. Slider doors shut, that time of year.

Nice! Good to see a win there. 0.39” in the Stratus here. Did notice the heavy echoes definitely don’t pack the rain punch they did most of the summer. Getting those “reds” to move through was like automatic quick 0.50-1.0+” in the humid pattern. Today it took a couple rounds of high-dbz to get near four tenths. Rain drops seemed small. ASOS was 58/54 during +RN and those temps definitely pack a different QPF punch than +RN at 72/68 a week ago.

Yeah that ship sailed for me weeks ago. They for sure aren't anywhere near WS caliber. In the end, really only 2 out of 30 teams get there. Rays are just a better team this season. Astros too. The real big boys are the Dodgers and Giants. Watching those games the past few days between those two was wild. They are both like super-teams. And only one of them can go to the WS. One will be the 2nd best team in all of MLB and have to play a 1-game wild card too! No way either Red Sox or Yanks can come anywhere close to a WS, I don't think they'd make a Division Series win. But I've been rooting for the first ever Yankees/Red Sox Wild Card game... just one night of baseball between rivals. One final 5 hour marathon on a Friday evening in October, nationally televised.... after that I don't care . Let the both bullpens implode and have both teams score 25 runs combined. Just give me that one game. Go out in a blaze of fiery error-filled glory.

Can tie it into winter snowfall discussion, ha. It's like if someone told you 25 days ago the Yanks could go 15-8, will you sign on the dotted line? The answer is likely yes. Just like if any Sox fan in March was told would you take a 3 game lead for the Wild Card on September 6th? Most would sign right up. It's how you get there that's infuriating. Like a winter where in November if someone said hey, would you sign up for a slightly over-performing snow year in a Super Nino? Yes? Then it snows like 50-70 inches by mid-January/MLK but rains for 3 months straight after that with only 0.8" of snowfall (as sleet) falling in the next 90 days . End of the season snow total looks above average in many SNE locals but after the big start everyone got huge visions of epicosity in their head.... only to break 1-2 laptops per week after that and declare it the worst winter ever.

Haha hey they are 15-8 in the last 23 games… .681 win percentage over 3+ weeks. Look at it that way, that’s elite win % .

No they may not, of course but I’m still betting they do. Need @ORH_wxman’s statistical take on what should get there by the numbers. He usually looks at it outside emotions better and in numbers. I’m thinking if both teams can play .550 win percentage they can get it with 3 game lead right now. Seattle’s run differential is so bad that it’ll fall apart at some point. Jay’s are definitely the concern. A’s look worst than Yanks and Sox.

After every loss for the past like 6 weeks Red Sox and Yankee fans both comment their team is done . Let’s just get a Wild Card death match between the two of them (let’s be honest, most just want those two to play each other in a 6-hour meaningful marathon), party like it’s the super bowl, and call it a season. Always fun, baseball is awesome. Get ‘em tomorrow night. No other sport you can suffer a defeat and then just wake up and forget it. Football you gotta stew on that shit for a week.

I mean that was on helluva game overall. Kept me entertaining. Been on my feet pacing for 2 hours . I must be numb because I still enjoyed it.

Alright, one run game with the core bats coming up and runner at first. Not completely over yet.

Haha "Check please, waiter."

That was the killer. Get that bunt down and it takes the double play out of it for Arauz. Getting rocked right now in a thunderstorm, some solid wind with this. Losing power would cap this afternoon off lol.

Or a pop up bunt... ha this has been an incredible game. Gotta win it and everything is forgotten, but I've been pacing around for the past like 90 minutes of this game ha ha.

Here we go again. Second round of thunder so far today. It is pitch black over Mansfield looking from Stowe. Some good thunder so far. Surprisingly active day.

lol wow. Inside-the-park home run by Meadows to tie it 9-9 in the 9th inning. You've got to be kidding me.

Sale is very lucky his stat line didn't get blown up. He gave up 10 hits but only got charged with 1 ER due to the error lost in the sun by Verdugo on the fly ball. On another aside, I'm starting to think Hunter Renfroe was one of the best off-season signings of any American League team. Talk about a hidden gem. Dollar for dollar he is hard to beat for production. The fact that he was DFA'd by Tampa Bay is crazy. Fan Graph's has his stat-line value this season as comparable to players getting paid $15 million and he's getting paid $3. The Sox have him for next year too with arbitration.

Very poorly timed today. But sun is back out up here and it’s actually really nice out again. 2pm obs at MVL was 58/55 but we rebounding now back to mid-60s. Stratus showing 0.23”.

Yeah glad to have gotten outdoor time this morning. Can still see blue sky to the east but it’s now very dark to the west. Decent shortwave moving through the area. Lots of Labor Day hikers were heading up the mountain when I left, probably just getting to the ridge line now…they are in for a surprise shortly.

Got up at 4:30, dropped the wife off in BTV for a flight to NYC at 6am, came back to Stowe, then decided to grab the dog and go up to the picnic tables with a thermos of coffee and enjoy the morning. A little chilly up here with occasional clouds grazing the top and a stiff breeze… but what a beautiful Labor Day morning.

It could be +0.5 . Those climate probability maps are tough to gain much from except they think warm anomalies will be centered in heart of nation.

I don’t know what “solid warmth” is but sounds more like push back on any fall weather narrative… but 30-40% chance of AN literally means new baseline normal it seems as Tip often points out. That prob map could be like: AN Chance: 40% Normal: 30% BN Chance: 30% Doesn't seem to have a strong signal either direction, just lean baseline slightly above normal all 365 days a year lol.

Looks like background CC type values in our area. 33-40% chance above normal. Thats real nice weather in September. Highs low 70s, lows upper 40s?

Yeah I think I was 19-20 on WWBB and now mid-30s… yikes time has flown by.

They’ve got a decent amount of money freeing up this offseason. Sign Devers to an extension, find a true closer, and add another bat. I still think they are waiting on 1st base for Tristan Casas (#19 MLB prospect) who crushed it for Team USA this year and just hit 5 home runs in 2 days in Portland (one went 480 feet lol)… so a first base signing seems unlikely IMO as Casas projects sometime next summer. They need to figure out 2nd base for sure. Good team to build on and money becoming available… good spot to be in.