powderfreak

Pasting at the ski area.

Paste show at 1500ft.

Another thing we always talk about but I'm not sure I've ever seen on a model... @J.Spin's Winooski Valley convergence zone through the mountains. It's often that precip finishes up and then we get some good squalls to rip right over J.Spin's head down towards Montpelier. It's wild to see that picked up on a model. Right over J.Spin's head there stretching towards Montpelier down I-89.

What's happening is pretty interesting meteorology... the secondary low taking shape off the New England coast that looks to ride the Maine coastline also will have a 850mb and weak 700mb reflection it looks like. Those features are different from when they were located up near FVE a couple days ago. That low along the Maine coast will keep winds in the lower 5000ft more northerly up this way, while hitting S/C VT more westerly. The flow up here I think will be really blocked more and more given that further south low keeping the lower winds more north than west. I think the precip backs up quite a bit into BTV and today especially looks super blocked by the veering wind in the lowest mile of the atmosphere. That's how we end up with spreads like this... but it's cool to know the reason is the more southerly tracking low along the Maine coast keeping winds from going uniform with height so it blocks itself up a lot. It also leads to more precip down your way in S/C VT with the lower Froude numbers blocked hard from getting any precip past like Woodford.

Didn’t expect to wake up to white slush. Looks like a half inch of slop out there. Third snowfall of grass blades sticking through. Hopefully we cover fully by tomorrow morning, ha.

It would be funny if after all of this, @backedgeapproachingends up the jackpot. I could definitely see it happening too. The deeper secondary low does leave a more favorable flow down in the S.Greens and keeps it a bit more northerly in the N.Greens. Lowers the Froude a bit, blocking it up.

It starts super blocked tomorrow and you can see it in the QPF maps. Like 0.50 Froude. But then it opens up to 0.80-1.20 which is smack centered over the crest. I noticed the Froude jumps (unblocks itself) as soon as the real CAA comes in. Froude opens up as 850mb temps drop it looked like in this event. Super blocked at -4C and then critical or unblocked once -9C or lower hits. Makes sense though that stronger advection would lead to more freely flowing air.

I think they have 4-5” in Stowe Village and like 19” at the mountain lol. They are 5 miles away from each other.

Yeah they literally broke up the zones for upslope style events back when I was at UVM I think.

6 or 7” in a 12 hour period I think? 9” in 24 hours?

You see the 18z HRRR?

Some monster runs for the GFS and EURO. Euro looks almost like mid-level banding plus upslope. More of a synoptic look instead of pure upslope.

The 3km NAM… that’s a pretty big change on the scale of the event, ha. Just as I preach large changes are not as easy in upslope events.

You're starting to get there by liking the consistency of upslope snow (lack of model swings)... that realization is the first step. Upslope threats are fairly consistent and will snow, just a matter of how much. Whereas synoptic storms vary wildly from run to run. You start to love the consistency of certain set-ups vs. the unmanned firehose style of synoptic. I know where we sit though on the NW side of New England when it comes to coastal storms. It's like living in CT during a SWFE. Sometimes it's very snowy but you also know what climo is for those set ups. Someone else is likely going to get more and you just enjoy being included in the event .

Yup that's what had us all up north so shook. Like missing out on the all-time stuff in 2014-15 was like, ok that happens... then '15-16 followed which was by far the worst winter in modern history in the mountains of NNE but yet in a terrible pattern some good events were rolling through NYC to BOS... that's when it started to get inside our heads haha. We couldn't even get ice to form at times it seemed and then you see some random event leave 12-15" through the heart of CT and it was like wtf is going on. Did climate change just "break" climo?

Ha yeah, started as a joke and got awfully real in a hurry. That was also when Eyewall moved to Vermont and BTV went like 2 full years (!) without a 6" or greater event. Dude had more snow in Raleigh where he moved from.

I’m still in therapy from that winter. I think we had a late April overrunning event that left like 3-6” in the valley and I still remember our Mtn Ops text group wondering if it was the most snow that fell in one continuous slug of precip that winter. People wondering legitimately if 4-5” was the most snow in a single fall where they live. Of course those bad winters “attempt” to snow late.

Those NMM bastards always leaking to the east.

The GGEM will always be my long lost love. There will be one GGEM run with a monster deform band from like ALB to BTV in every coastal event.

Yeah it loves printing out big QPF when it thinks the peaks are in the cloud getting rimed up. Just inches and inches of QPF when sometimes all it means is a peak is above it's forecast cloud layer, lol.

From too many deep to sobered right up.

That’d get us going. Snowy week?

C.Lahiff crushing the AFD this afternoon. “Honing in on the main upslope event which goal posts Friday afternoon through the first half of Saturday with the bulk of it really being through sunrise Saturday. In collaboration with WPC today diagnosing the 12Z models, we`ve disregarded the latest NAM output with little run to run consistency which seems to not handle the strong downstream blocking as well as the global models are. Leaning more on the GFS/ECMWF, the close northeast proximity of the surface to mid-level circulation and moist wraparound ascent continues to favor the upslope regions of the Adirondacks and more impressively in the north-central Greens and the NE Kingdom where Froude values are near critical. Once the sun sets, we should see snow accumulations make it to the valley floor with 1-2"/hr rates across the higher terrain through the night. Additionally, gusty winds continue to look likely overnight into Saturday as cold advection aloft will maintain well-mixed conditions with the potential for gusts up to 25-35 mph. Poor travel conditions will be likely in many areas with snow and blowing snow, especially over the mountain gap roads. As far as snow totals go, there remains a high likelihood for 12-18" along the spine of the Greens from Mt. Ellen to Mansfield to Jay Peak with 6+" possible along the western slopes of the Adirondacks and eastern Addison/Chittenden/Franklin counties of Vermont as well as portions of the Northeast Kingdom. Given the jump back upward in QPF with the 12Z model cycle, collaboration with WPC and GYX leads us to hold off on any watches at this point.

That’s a lot of QPF into the peaks.

Hard to say. It's definitely still going as we have fun fluffy snow here. Transient for me, but for other areas it's been steady snowfall. Looks like it's switched more towards the Camels Hump are and south of I-89/Winooski Valley for best pulse. Those yellows are likely brief 1"/hr or higher type flakes, but residence time will be a limiting factor.